Caribbean - Central America Weather

[Gustywind]

Hi Cycloneye glad to see that you're as usual in shape . A moderate drought has began in Guadeloupe since 3 weeks. What is the situtation in PR and in the others islands? Any idea? Thanks.

[cycloneye]

Hi Cycloneye glad to see that you're as usual in shape . A moderate drought has began in Guadeloupe since 3 weeks. What is the situtation in PR and in the others islands? Any idea? Thanks.

PR is going thru a dry period which is normal for March. A few forest fires have started. Here is a nice view of San Juan.

[Gustywind]

Hi Cycloneye glad to see that you're as usual in shape . A moderate drought has began in Guadeloupe since 3 weeks. What is the situtation in PR and in the others islands? Any idea? Thanks.

PR is going thru a dry period which is normal for March. A few forest fires have started. Here is a nice view of San Juan.

http://oi62.tinypic.com/28mns46.jpg

Ok tkanks for this precious info! Very nice pic, que encanto

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
300 PM AST WED MAR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MID LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN BASIN
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS FAIR WEATHER PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN A
FAIRLY STRONG SUBSIDENCE CAP ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA MOST OF THE WORK
WEEK. DURING THE WEEKEND...A FEW PERTURBATIONS ALOFT WILL ERODE THE
RIDGE...INCREASING SLIGHTLY THE INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...THE LACK OF
DEEP MOISTURE WILL LIMIT THE SHOWER COVERAGE ACROSS THE ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND EASTERN PR LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOWERS ACTIVITY WAS RELATED TO CLOUD LINES
FORMING DOWNWIND OF THE ISLANDS THAT INTENSIFY A BIT WHEN INTERACTED
WITH EL YUNQUE TOPOGRAPHY. AS A RESULT...SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NAGUABO... FAJARDO...LUQUILLO...RIO GRANDE AND CAROLINA.
IN ADDITION...CLOUDS AND SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN PR THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER
NORTHWESTERN WILL DISSIPATE NEAR SUNSET.

FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE
TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. AT THE SAME TIME...UPPER TROUGH
WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LEADING TO A MODERATE TO
STRONG SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
UNDER A GENERALLY STRONG SUBSIDENCE CAP RAINFALL WILL BE ON THE
LOW SIDE. HOWEVER...DURING THE WEEKEND A FEW UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATIONS
WILL HELP TO ERODE THE RIDGE AND THE SUBSIDENCE CAP...ALLOWING MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION AND FAVORING THE DEVELOPMENT OF CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL ESTABLISH AGAIN
LATE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MAINLY FAIR
WX. LLVL WINDS WILL CONTINUE FM THE ESE BUT INCREASE FM 10KT DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS 2-4 FT NEXT FIVE DAYS. WINDS 15-20 KT THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY THEN DIMINISH NEAR 15 KT DURING THE WEEKEND. A MODERATE
NORTH SWELL WILL REACH THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS LATE THURSDAY...
INCREASING THE WAVE HEIGHTS UP TO 5 FEET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 85 73 86 / 10 10 0 10
STT 75 85 75 86 / 10 10 10 10

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Dry weather will prevail today in PR and VI with only isolated showers.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
429 AM AST THU MAR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN AS THE MAIN
WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL AT LEAST FRIDAY. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY OVER
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. A GENERALLY FAIR AND
STABLE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND
THE SURROUNDING WATERS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS MOSTLY ACROSS THE SURROUNDING WATERS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY IN
THE MORNING. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WAS OBSERVED OVER LAND
AREAS SO FAR THIS MORNING. THIS GENERALLY FAIR AND STABLE WEATHER
PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS WITH PWAT VALUES IN THE ORDER OF 1.0 INCH. A MID TO
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PRESENT WEATHER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE REGION
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...THE LIMITED AVAILABLE MOISTURE OVER
THE REGION WILL COMBINE EACH DAY WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL
ISLANDS EFFECTS TO INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS MOSTLY ACROSS WESTERN AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO
EACH AFTERNOON. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE REGION.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE EAST OF THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO
AMPLIFY ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN LATE TODAY AND FRIDAY. AS THIS
HAPPENS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ERODE...ALLOWING A LITTLE MORE
MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION BY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME...NO SIGNIFICANT OR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
TERMINALS DURING THE FCST PRD. QUICK PASSING ISOLD -SHRA ARE PSBL
FROM TIME TO TIME ACROSS THE EAST SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS AND THE
SURROUNDING WATERS. SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE E TO SE AT 5-10
KTS.

&&

.MARINE...TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH SEAS OF 5
FEET OR LESS AND WINDS OF 17 KNOTS OR LESS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SUSTAIN A SUBSIDENCE
PATTERN...LEADING TO SIGNIFICANT DRYING ACROSS THE REGION.
HOWEVER...WINDS WILL DECREASE TODAY AND FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THUS...A MODERATE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 74 86 75 / 10 0 0 20
STT 85 74 85 76 / 10 10 10 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
303 PM AST THU MAR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SHORT-WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY OVER THE LESSER
ANTILLES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION OF THE TROUGH
FAVORS THE UPPER CONVERGENT PATTERN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT
AND OVERNIGHT. THE BEST CHANCES OF RAINFALL WILL BE ON FRIDAY AS THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN NEAR THE FORECAST AREA...ALLOWING
SOME DESTABILIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE IN THE ISLAND`S VICINITY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THICK CLOUDINESS WAS OBSERVED ACROSS USVI AND PR EARLY
TODAY BUT SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN MINIMAL. A DRIER AIRMASS HAVE
BEEN FILTER IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON...
REDUCING THE OVERALL CLOUDINESS AND THE SHOWER COVERAGE ACROSS THE
AREA. NORTHWEST AND WEST PR WILL CONTINUE TO SEE ISOLATED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION DEVELOPING DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...TAPERING OFF NEAR
SUNSET.

AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES THROUGH
FRIDAY SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL WEAKEN TO 600 MB FRIDAY PROMOTING
SOME MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE SOUTHEAST...ENHANCING THE INSTABILITY.
THIS WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE USVI AND THE EASTERN
THIRD OF PUERTO RICO ON FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. SOME DRYING
IS INDICATED NOW BY THE OPERATIONAL MODELS LATE SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. SOME MOISTURE IS EXPECTED AGAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY UNDER
DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS TODAY BUT CIGS BKN040-050. WINDS 15G20KT
WITH AN ONSHORE COMPONENT XCPT NEAR 10 KT AT JMZ.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS 2-4 FT NEXT FIVE DAYS. WINDS 15-20 KT THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY THEN DIMINISH NEAR 15 KT DURING THE WEEKEND. A MODERATE
NORTH SWELL WILL REACH THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT...INCREASING
THE WAVE HEIGHTS UP TO 5 FEET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 86 75 87 / 0 20 20 40
STT 74 85 76 86 / 0 20 30 30

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Some showers are expected but for the most part dry weather is expected today.



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
506 AM AST FRI MAR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LOCAL
AREA FROM THE WEST TODAY...BUT THE PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
AND FLOW WILL BECOME WEST NORTHWEST UNTIL THE NEXT WEAK RIDGE
PASSES THROUGH ON TUESDAY. A STRONG TROUGH OVER MAINE ON WEDNESDAY
EVENING WILL BARELY BE NOTICED IN PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AS IT PASSES TO THE NORTH.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN FROM THE
WEST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 7 DAYS. MID LAYERS WILL START TO SEE A
LITTLE MORE MOISTURE BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT AND LASTING UNTIL THE
END OF NEXT WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC AND WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT GRADIENTS WILL BE WEAK ON MONDAY THROUGH MID-WEEK
BEFORE A NEW HIGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AREAS OF
MOISTURE IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW WILL BRING SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS BUT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN BELOW 1.5 INCHES
THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS WITH A DIP TO AT OR BELOW ONE INCH OVER
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED ONLY VERY FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE SURROUNDING WATERS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY IN THE
MORNING. THIS GENERALLY FAIR AND STABLE WEATHER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE REGION FOR TODAY. THE LIMITED
AVAILABLE MOISTURE OVER THE REGION WILL COMBINE EACH DAY WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL ISLANDS EFFECTS TO INDUCE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MOSTLY ACROSS WESTERN
AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO EACH AFTERNOON. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MOSTLY ACROSS THE SURROUNDING WATERS AND THE
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS SATURDAY EARLY MORNING. NO
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION.

MOISTURE OVER THE AREA WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEK AND THIS WILL LEAD TO BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN LATER.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
TERMINALS DURING THE FCST PD. QUICK PASSING ISOLD -SHRA ARE PSBL
FROM TIME TO TIME ACROSS THE EAST SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS AND THE
SURROUNDING WATERS. SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE E TO SE AT 5-10
KTS WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLD -SHRA/SHRA
ACROSS THE W PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...VCSH MAINLY FOR TJBQ AND
TJMZ FM 21/17 TO 21/23Z WITH OCNL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH SEAS OF 5
FEET OR LESS AND WINDS OF 17 KNOTS OR LESS. MODELS ARE BRINGING IN
MUCH HIGHER SWELL LATE NEXT WEEK GENERATED BY A LOW THAT GROWS
EXPLOSIVELY ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL HOLD OFF
ADDING IT TO THE FORECAST UNTIL THE HIGH AMPLITUDE PRESSURE PATTERN
CAN BE CONFIRMED IN SEVERAL MODEL RUNS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS AND HUMIDITY IS
EXPECTED OVER THE REGION TODAY AND WINDS WILL DECREASE FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THUS...A MODERATE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON.
SIGNIFICANT DRYING IS EXPECTED TO RE-ESTABLISH ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK...HEIGHTENING FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 75 89 74 / 20 20 20 10
STT 85 76 86 76 / 20 30 30 10

[cycloneye]

AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
318 PM AST FRI MAR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD TROUGH TO REMAIN THE DOMINANT WX FEATURE ACROSS
ERN NOAM AND THE WRN ATLC THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO BUILD EWD TUE-THU.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DESPITE TROUGHFINESS ALOFT MODELS DO NOT SHOW ANY
MOISTURE RECOVERY DURING THE NEXT SVRL DAYS. MODELS ACTUALLY
MAINTAIN A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH VERY WARM H85 MB TEMPS. SO MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR FAIR
WEATHER CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE WITH HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S.

COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE AREA TUE AS WINDS BECOME MORE
EASTERLY. MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THEN STRENGTHENS MID NEXT WEEK
MAINTAINING SUBSIDENCE AND DRY WX. STRONG BERMUDA HIGH PRES THEN
BUILDS EWD ACROSS THE ATLC TIGHTENING THE LOCAL PRES GRADIENT
SUPPORTING VERY WINDY CONDITIONS THU-SAT. GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEAN
SHOWS A STRONG 1040 MB HIGH WHILE SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW CENTRAL
PRESSURES AS HIGH AS 1047 MB ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HIGH. H85 MB
ENSEMBLE MEAN WINDS INDICATE WINDS OF 25 KT AT SJU WHICH ARE TWO
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...NORTHERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO INVADE THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC WATERS AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGE TODAY. WAVE HEIGHT WILL
INCREASE UP TO 5 FEET LATER TODAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DESPITE HOT AND DRY AIR MASS NEXT SVRL DAYS...WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW RFD OR RFW CRITERIA. SIG WIND EVENT
NEXT THU-SAT BUT CONFIDENCE ON MOISTURE DISTRIBUTION IN THE
ATMOSPHERE DURING THOSE DAYS REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 89 74 89 / 0 10 0 0
STT 76 85 77 85 / 10 10 0 0

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Dry weather and warm temperatures will be the rule today in PR and VI.



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
450 AM AST SAT MAR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...WEST NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE AREA UNTIL MID WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE
SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN AND TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN
UNTIED STATES. FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY BUT THE OVERALL
PRESSURE PATTERN WILL REMAIN THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...INTERRUPTED
ONLY BY A WEAK TROUGH PASSAGE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

AT MID LEVELS...DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE AT MID LEVELS UNTIL A
MODICUM OF MOISTURE FILLS IN FROM THE NORTH FROM MID WEEK THROUGH
THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
CARIBBEAN GENERALLY FROM THE WEST. A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE WILL
APPEAR SEVERAL TIMES BETWEEN NOW AND MONDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE EAST NORTHEAST AND REINFORCES
THE HIGH OVER THE NORTHEAST ATLANTIC. GRADIENTS WEAKEN
CONSIDERABLY SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO RETREAT TO THE NORTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AFTER A LOW MOVES UP THE EAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES AND CANADA WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE THE TRADE
WINDS TO REGENERATE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&


.DISCUSSION...THE LINE OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROUGH
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS HAS DISSIPATED AND
IS NO LONGER SEEN. A FEW RANDOM SHOWERS HAVE APPEARED IN THE
CARIBBEAN BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT LAND IN THE FORECAST
AREA. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
AS DRIER AIR PREVAILS AND ONLY A FEW SHOWERS WILL APPEAR ANYWHERE.

YESTERDAY`S HIGH OF 92 DEGREES IN SAN JUAN GIVES ONE PAUSE...BUT
WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE QUITE AS STRONGLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST
TODAY SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH A 90 DEGREE FORECAST INHERITED FROM
SEVERAL SHIFTS. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUD COVER ANOTHER
SUNNY DAY APPEARS TO BE ON TAP FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH WARMER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MOISTURE INCREASES STEADILY THROUGH
SATURDAY OF NEXT WEEK AFTER MONDAY MORNING...SO WILL SEE POPS
INCREASES DURING THAT PERIOD AS WELL. STILL TOO DRY TO SEE
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA THOUGH AND UPPER LEVELS ARE
NEARLY FEATURELESS...IN OUR VICINITY THAT IS...UNTIL A WEAK TROUGH
PASSAGE THAT IS DEPICTED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
TERMINALS DURING THE FCST PD. QUICK PASSING ISOLD -SHRA ARE PSBL
FROM TIME TO TIME ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE
N AND NW PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO FM 21/17 TO 21/23Z. SFC WINDS
MAINLY FROM THE S TO SE AT 5-10 KTS WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS ARE
EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...RELATIVELY TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SEAS REMAINING BELOW 6 FEET. TRADE WINDS ARE
LIKELY TO INCREASE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND SEAS WILL RESPOND.
NORTH TO NORTH NORTHWEST SWELL SHOULD ALSO BE GENERATED BY THE
STRONG LOW THAT EXPLODES ALONG THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY ACCORDING
TO THE GFS AND THIS WILL GENERATE SOME SWELL THAT ARE EXPECTED TO
RAISE SEAS TO 7 TO 8 FEET ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 75 89 74 / 10 0 0 0
STT 85 74 85 73 / 0 0 0 10

[cycloneye]

Is a great beach day in San Juan.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
318 PM AST SAT MAR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD TROUGH WILL DOMINATE ERN NOAM AND THE WRN ATLC
INTO GREATER ANTILLES THROUGH MON NIGHT. UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD
TUE THRU WED THEN ERODE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HOT AND DRY WX EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THRU SUN UNDER
SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALOFT. A SLIGHT MOISTURE INCREASE EXPECTED LATE
SUN NIGHT THRU EARLY TUE AS SHORTWAVE-TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA.
THIS WILL ALSO BRING DOWN TEMPS A FEW DEGS. MID-UPPER LEVEL THEN
BUILDS TUE THRU WED WITH DRYING AND TEMPS REBOUNDING AGAIN. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE THEN BREAKS DOWN BUT MID LEVEL RIDGE HOLDS A BIT LONGER.
STRONG SFC HIGH THEN BUILDS EWD ACROSS THE ATLC TIGHTENING THE
LOCAL PRES GRADIENT WITH VERY WINDY CONDITIONS THU-SAT WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS ON FRI. H85 WINDS ARE FCST AT 25 KTS WHICH ARE TWO
STANDARD DEVAITIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
CONDITIONS BECOME MORE FVRBL FOR SOME RAIN AT THE VERY END OF
MARCH AS UPPER LEVEL ERODES FURTHER AND WEAKENS SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION SUFFICIENTLY ALLOWING SIG MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS 2-4 FT THRU WED BUT THEN BEGIN TO BUILD THU AS
WINDS STRENGTHEN IN RESPONSE TO BUILDING HIGH PRES TO THE NORTH.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HOT AND DRY WX WILL CONTINUE FOR SVRL MORE DAYS
WITH VERY SLIM CHANCES OF WETTING RAINS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
REMAIN BELOW RFD OR RFW CRITERIA UNTIL THU WHEN WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO STRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY. IT APPEARS BY THEN THERE WILL BE SOME
MOISTURE RECOVERY TO AVOID RED FLAG CONDITIONS BUT TOO EARLY TO
TELL ATTM.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 86 73 84 / 0 0 0 10
STT 78 85 78 85 / 0 0 0 10

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Another dry and warm day is expected in PR and VI today.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
440 AM AST SUN MAR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN EVEN AS STRONG TROUGHING REMAINS
NORTH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND EASTERN CANADA. A
WEAK RIDGE WILL PASS THROUGH PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS MONDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN THE FOLLOWING WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN DURING
THE NEXT 10 DAYS AND EXTEND NORTHEAST ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A SHEARLINE WILL
BRING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE TOMORROW.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID LATITUDE ATLANTIC
WILL BEAT A RETREAT TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS NORTH OF THE AREA AND MOVES RAPIDLY NORTH NORTHEAST.
GRADIENTS WILL BE WEAK THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT TRADE WINDS WILL
INCREASE WHEN ANOTHER HIGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VERY FEW SHOWERS WERE SEEN ANYWHERE OVERNIGHT AND
LITTLE OR NO RAIN IS EXPECTED IN THE MORNING HOURS WHEN MARINE AIR
WILL BE AT ITS MOST SHALLOW DEPTH OF THE WEEK AHEAD. MOISTURE GRADUALLY
INCREASES OVER THE LOCAL AREA AND BY SATURDAY RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
OF 50 PERCENT OR BETTER WILL CLIMB TO ALMOST 10 KFT FROM UNDER 4
KFT TODAY. DRY AIR AND LOTS OF SUNSHINE TODAY COUPLED WITH
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO RISE TO NEAR RECORD
LEVELS ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST IN THE SAN JUAN GREATER
METROPOLITAN AREA. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST WELL ABOVE
NORMAL. EXPECT DUST AND SULFATES TO LIMIT THE VISIBILITY TO 8 TO
12 MILES ONLY TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A
SHEARLINE WILL BRING A SHIFT IN THE WIND DIRECTION DURING THE
AFTERNOON ON MONDAY...BUT EXPECT THAT IT MAY BE TOO LATE TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM TOUCHING 90 DEGREES AGAIN IN SAN JUAN. THE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY CREEP UP DURING THE WEEK AS MOISTURE
MOVES IN FROM THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC.

IN THE VERY LONG RANGE FORECAST PERIOD BEYOND THE END OF THE
MONTH...MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO HINT AT A BREAK IN THE DRY PATTERN
AS MID LEVEL FLOW TURNS SOUTHWEST INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF
TAPPING MOISTURE THAT HERETOFORE HAS BEEN HELD OVER SOUTH AMERICA.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
TERMINALS DURING THE FCST PD. QUICK PASSING ISOLD -SHRA ARE PSBL
FROM TIME TO TIME ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. SFC WINDS MAINLY FROM THE
E TO SE AT 5-10 KTS WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS. THERE IS SOME
CHANCE OF A FEW HOURS OF MVFR CONDS IN TJMZ BETWEEN 23/17-19Z.

&&

.MARINE...BUOY 41043 HAS BEEN SEEING SOME SWELL OF BETWEEN 5 AND 6
FEET JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS...BUT SWELL AND WIND
WAVES WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THURSDAY. THE GFS IS STILL INDICATING
EXPLOSIVE GROWTH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE ATLANTIC COAST OF
THE UNITED STATES TOWARD NEWFOUNDLAND WEDNESDAY...BUT CLOSE
EXAMINATION SUGGESTS THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS WRAP AROUND THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW AND LITTLE FETCH WILL BE AIMED AT
THE LOCAL AREA WHEN THE LOW REACHES FULL STRENGTH DESPITE HAVING
A RIBBON OF 60-70 KNOT WINDS. NEVERTHELESS SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUNS
SUGGEST THAT 7 TO 8 FOOT SEAS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS WEEK IN THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AIDED BY A 5 FOOT SWELL WITH A 13 SECOND PERIOD.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GET QUITE CHOPPY AS A LARGE AREA OF
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BE COVERED WITH 25 KNOT WINDS OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST AND HENCE HEADED TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA AFTER THE
LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH OF 40 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE. SOME WIND
WAVES WILL AT THE SAME TIME ALSO BE ARRIVING IN THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHEAST.

&&

.CLIMATE...WITH ONLY THREE TENTHS OF AN INCH SO FAR THIS
MONTH...THERE IS STILL A CHANCE THAT THIS MAY BE THE SECOND DRIEST
MARCH IN THE AREA SINCE 1898. THE DRIEST CARRIED ONLY A TRACE IN
2005. HOWEVER MANY OTHER PERIODS OF 31 DAYS OR MORE HAVE OCCURRED IN
THE PAST WITH ONLY HALF THE RAIN WE HAVE HAD SO FAR THIS
MONTH...SO THIS IS NOT AN EXTREME EVENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 74 87 74 / 0 0 0 0
STT 87 78 86 73 / 0 0 10 10

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
304 PM AST SUN MAR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD THRU WED THEN BREAK DOWN
AS BROAD TROUGH REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVR ERN NOAM AND THE WRN ATLC.
STRONG SFC HIGH TO BUILD ACROSS THE WRN ATLC THU-SAT AND RESULT IN
VERY WINDY CONDITIONS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA NEXT
36 HRS AND INDUCE A NRLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND ALSO BRING A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN MOISTURE WITH ISOLD SHOWERS EXPECTED ON THE SRN
SLOPES/SOUTH COAST MON. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TUE-WED WITH
DRYING AGAIN. ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO STRONG SFC HIGH BUILDING
ACROSS THE ATLC THU-SAT THAT WILL CREATE VERY WINDY CONDITIONS AND
HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE H85
WINDS NEAR 25-KT WHICH ARE TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABV NORMAL AND
0-1KM WINDS NEAR 20-KT. ECMWF AND GFS REMAIN AT ODDS THU-SAT
INDICATING VERY DIFFERENT MOISTURE PROFILES WHICH WOULD HAVE HUGE
IMPLICATIONS IN FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL. CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD
THE "WETTER" GFS FAVORING CLOUD CLUSTERS AND FAST MOVING SHOWERS
AS OPPOSED TO THE ECMWF WHICH SHOWS A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS AND A
MORE ENE OR NE DOWNSLOPE FLOW. CONDITIONS BECOME MORE FVRBL FOR
RAIN AT THE VERY END OF MARCH AS SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WEAKENS
FURTHER ALLOWING FOR SIG MOISTURE TRANSPORT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS 2-4 FT WITH WINDS DIMINISHING THRU WED AS AREA
BECOMES UNDER A COL REGION. VERY WINDY CONDITIONS THU-SAT WITH
WINDS 20-25 KT AND SEAS BUILDING 6-8 FT. NNW SWELLS ASSOCIATED
WITH AN INTENSE AREA OF LOW PRES WILL BEGIN AFFECTING THE AREA WED
NIGHT AND CONTINUE THRU FRI.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 89 75 89 / 0 0 0 10
STT 77 85 77 85 / 0 0 0 10

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Dry weather will prevail today in PR and VI.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
537 AM AST MON MAR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A WEAK RIDGE CROSSES THROUGH THE
AREA LATE TODAY AND FORMS EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
THEN RIDGING RE-BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN CAUSING FLOW TO
TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY LATER IN THE WEEK. THIS RIDGE MOVES
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA AND TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY THEN
RETURNS TO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE A CUT-OFF
LOW FORMS IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE EARLY NEXT MONTH.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST
ATLANTIC AND A FRONT EXTENDING OFF A LOW NORTH OF PUERTO RICO
BETWEEN 30 AND 40 NORTH WEAKENS AS IT SAGS TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA.
A SHEARLINE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS OF THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. ON TUESDAY A LOW STRENGTHENS
EXPLOSIVELY ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD OF THE UNITED STATES AND
MOVES RAPIDLY NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY CAUSING GRADIENTS TO WEAKEN
JUST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. HIGH
PRESSURE ENTERING THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY WILL CAUSE
LOCAL TRADE WINDS TO RE-STRENGTHEN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS HIGH
WILL DOMINATE THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BY SATURDAY. LOW LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES SOUTHEASTERLY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...RADAR SHOWED ANOTHER DRY NIGHT OVER LAND WITH ONLY
ONE OR TWO MINOR SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF OUR
CARIBBEAN WATERS. A WEAK SHEARLINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
LOCAL OUTER ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY...BRINGING VARIABLE WINDS...BUT
THESE WINDS ARE AGAIN FROM THE SOUTHEAST TOMORROW WHEN RIDGING
RETURNS TO THE ATLANTIC JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS
SHEAR LINE IS EXPECTED TO BRING SOME BRIEF RELIEF TO THE VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES EXPERIENCED IN THE GREATER SAN JUAN METROPOLITAN AREA
TODAY...BUT TEMPERATURES MAY INCREASE A LITTLE AGAIN TOMORROW. THE
NAM5 SHOWED LIKELY SHOWERS OVER THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL THIS
AFTERNOON. THE WRF SHOWS SHOWERS SPREADING OVER MUCH OF WESTERN
PUERTO RICO THEN AS WELL. HOWEVER LITTLE MOISTURE HAS COME IN TO
FUEL THESE SHOWERS AND THEREFORE HAVE KEPT COVERAGE IN THE AREA TO
ISOLATED...BUT EXPECT A LITTLE MORE ACTIVITY THAN YESTERDAY WITH
ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS IN BRIEF HEAVY SHOWERS WHERE THEY FORM.

FLOW BECOMES MORE EASTERLY DURING THE WEEK...AND...AS IT DOES...
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE GFS SOLUTION CLIMB STEADILY OVER
THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN THE MINIMUM EXPECTED TUESDAY...OF JUST
ABOVE 1 INCH...TO A PEAK OF ALMOST 1.7 INCHES ON TUESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS INCREASE WILL BRING IN PATCHES OF MOISTURE BEGINNING
TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK. AGAIN IT IS THE GFS
THAT SHOWS A GRADUAL DEEPENING OF THE MOIST LAYER BREAKING FIRST
THROUGH 850 MB EARLY THIS WEEK AND THEN THROUGH 700 MB NEXT WEEK.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...NEXT WEEK THE GFS IS SHOWING A STRONG TROUGH
DEEPENING AS IT CROSSES OVER FLORIDA SENDING THE SUB TROPICAL JET
OVER THE LOCAL AREA AND INCREASING DIVERGENCE ALOFT BY MID WEEK. THE
ECMWF SHOWS THE TROUGH BUT DOES NOT DEEPEN OR FORM LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES QUITE AS MUCH AS THE GFS. AS IS
CLIMATOLOGICALLY SEASONAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF APRIL THE GFS IS
SIGNALING THE END OF THE DRIEST WEATHER FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS WITH THE STRONG DEVELOPMENT OF THIS TROUGH AND
THE ACCOMPANYING TURN OF FLOW AT 700 MB FROM THE NORTH TO FLOW
WITH A SOUTHERN COMPONENT NEXT WEEK. THIS WOULD BRING MORE
MOISTURE OUT OF THE MOISTURE-RICH ENVIRONMENT OF SOUTH AMERICA
NEXT WEEK THAT WOULD CAUSE A SHARP INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY
OVER THE AREA. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE SOLUTION OF THE GFS IS SOME
WHAT EXAGGERATED...BUT WOULD EXPECT AT LEAST MODEST MOISTURE
INCREASES NEXT WEEK IN THE LONGER RANGE FORECAST WITH A
POSSIBILITY OF A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE PATTERN AT THAT TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS DURING THE
FCST PD. SFC WINDS MAINLY FROM THE SE AT 5-10 KTS WITH SEA BREEZE
VARIATIONS. WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS BELOW 8 KFT...BCMG FROM THE W TO NW
AND INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KTS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME
SHALLOW CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ALONG THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND
WESTERN PUERTO RICO AND SOME MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED
AFTER 24/17Z.

&&

.MARINE...WITH WINDS ONLY MODERATE AND LITTLE SWELL AT THE MOMENT
SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW 6 FEET THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SIGNIFICANT SWELL
FROM A VERY STRONG LOW FORECAST TO FORM OFF THE EASTERN SEA BOARD
OF THE UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY IS STILL EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY
AND INTO FRIDAY WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY IN THE ATLANTIC
WATERS THEN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 74 90 74 / 0 10 10 10
STT 85 76 85 75 / 0 10 10 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
254 PM AST MON MAR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD ON TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA THEN WEAKEN. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC STARTING ON
THURSDAY...LIKELY CAUSING WINDY CONDITIONS.


&&

.DISCUSSION...DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILED TODAY ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. CLOUDINESS INCREASED ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF PUERTO RICO IN THE AFTERNOON BUT SO FAR THERE HAS
BEEN NO RAIN OBSERVED. HAVING SAID THAT...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SLOPES OF PR LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

LITTLE TO NO SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS VERY LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS...USVI...AND EASTERN PR. FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS THERE
IS NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE WEATHER EXPECTED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
DRY AIR OVER THE AREA EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. STARTING
ON THURSDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE IN
WINDS BUT MOISTURE IS STILL RELATIVELY LOW. HOWEVER ON FRIDAY...AN
AREA OF HIGHER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
WHICH MAY RESULT IN STILL WINDY BUT CLOUDY SKIES AND PASSING SHOWERS.


&&

.AVIATION...P6SM AT ALL TAF SITES WITH WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT. PASSING ISOL -SHRA LATE TONIGHT. VFR CONDS EXPECTED FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA AND SEAS
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 2 TO 4 FEET. WINDS INCREASING ON THURSDAY
AND SEAS ALSO INCREASING IN WIND WAVES AND NNW SWELLS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 85 73 85 / 20 20 10 20
STT 76 85 76 85 / 20 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

Good morning.

Dry weather with warm temperatures will be the rule today for PR and VI.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
520 AM AST TUE MAR 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE DEVELOPS DOWNSTREAM FROM THE LOCAL
AREA AND BUILDS NORTHEAST BEFORE RETURNING ACROSS THE AREA ON
THURSDAY NIGHT. A SECOND RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY
AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT PASSES JUST NORTH ON TUESDAY
EVENING. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER NORTHERN SOUTH
AMERICA FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE LOCAL AREA AND
TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...THEN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETREAT TO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. A SHORT WAVE WILL
BRUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE NOW EMERGING FROM FLORIDA WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WHILE DEEPENING EXPLOSIVELY.
THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS TO SLACKEN SLIGHTLY BUT A HIGH THAT BUILDS
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY WILL REINVIGORATE THE LOCAL
TRADE WINDS. ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE OUT OF MARYLAND AND WEAKEN THE
LOCAL GRADIENTS EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE INCREASES TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.


&&

.DISCUSSION...A FEW SHOWERS WERE SEEN OVER THE LOCAL WATERS...BUT
NONE MOVED OVER LAND. THE GFS INDICATES THAT MOISTURE WILL
DIMINISH DURING THE DAY AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL LIKELY
DIP TO BELOW 1.1 AS THEY ALREADY ARE IN SAINT CROIX. LOW LEVEL
FLOW SWITCHES FROM NORTH OR NORTHEAST THIS MORNING TO SOUTHEAST
THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL REINFORCE THE DRIER AIR. NORTHEAST FLOW
RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THURSDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH THURSDAY BEFORE
FRAGMENTING AND LIFTING NORTHWEST IN THE EASTERLY FLOW AT WHICH
TIME BUBBLES OF MOISTURE WILL FILE PAST THE AREA. ANOTHER SHEARLINE
IS DEPICTED TO PASS THROUGH ON TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
HOLD THE RICH MOISTURE IN SOUTH AMERICA FARTHER SOUTH THAN
PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS DID AND WILL DELAY THE ARRIVAL OF WETTER
WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE MODEL RUN YESTERDAY. THIS SOLUTION TOO
MAY BE OVER DONE AND EXPECT THE FINAL RESULTS FOR THE FIRST WEEK
OF APRIL TO BE SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN THE TWO SOLUTIONS.

SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL RESUME THIS AFTERNOON AND BE A LITTLE
STRONGER TOMORROW BEFORE EASTERLY WINDS MOVE OVER THE AREA. THIS
WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE 3 TO 4 DEGREES TODAY ALONG THE
NORTH COASTAL PLAINS OF PUERTO RICO AND IS LIKELY TO BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL
THIS MONTH...BUT THE EAST WINDS LATER IN THE WEEK WILL INCREASE
AND TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL AS THE MARINE LAYER
DEEPENS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING
AREA DURING THE FCST PD. ISOLD -SHRA ARE PSBL ACROSS THE W
PORTIONS OF PR FM 25/18 TO 25/22. LIGHT AND VARIABLE SFC WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...LATER INCREASING TO 5-10
KTS WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS ARE ALL BELOW 6 FEET THIS MORNING...LARGE SWELL ARE
EXPECTED FROM THE EXPLOSIVE SPIN-UP IN THE ATLANTIC TODAY AND
TOMORROW AND SHOULD ARRIVE IN OUR LOCAL WATERS FRIDAY. WINDS WILL
ALSO INCREASE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND SEAS WILL BECOME QUITE
CHOPPY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 73 90 73 / 0 10 10 20
STT 83 76 83 75 / 0 10 10 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
305 PM AST TUE MAR 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXITS THE EAST
COAST OF THE U.S. ON WEDNESDAY. THEN LATE ON THURSDAY A STRONG
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...TIGHTENING THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT AND CAUSING THE
LOCAL WINDS TO INCREASE.


&&

.DISCUSSION...NO PRECIPITATION WAS OBSERVED OVER LAND THIS MORNING
AND EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AS DRY AIR DOMINATED THE AREA. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED AN AREA OF DEVELOPING CLOUDS ACROSS
THE INTERIOR AND THE NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO BUT
AGAIN...NO RAIN OBSERVED AS OF NOW. THERE IS STILL HOWEVER A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN PUERTO
RICO LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
THE SOUTHERN SLOPES OF PR ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BUT AS OF
NOW...NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED UNTIL POSSIBLY FRIDAY
WHEN A NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY
MORNING. BUT SHOWERS THAT DO DEVELOP OR MOVE IN WITH THE TRADES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE OF SHORT DURATION OVER ANY ONE POINT DUE TO THE
INCREASE IN WINDS EXPECTED LATE ON THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA
DURING THE FCST PRD. FEW -SHRA REMAIN PSBL MAINLY OVR WRN INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF PR TIL 25/22Z. LOCAL SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS WILL AFFECT
THE COASTAL AREAS WITH WINDS BETWEEN 5 TO 15 MPH. L/LVL WNDS WILL
BE FM THE E AT 10 TO 15 MPH...BCMG LGT AND VRB UP TO FL200....THEN
FM NW AND INCR W/HT ABV.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UP TO 4 FEET FOR THE REST OF
TODAY. HOWEVER NORTHERLY SWELL IS EXPECTED TO INVADE THE LOCAL
WATERS LATE THURSDAY...INCREASING SEAS POSSIBLY UP TO 8 FEET BY
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 73 86 73 / 0 10 10 20
STT 83 75 85 76 / 0 10 10 20

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Another dry weather day is on tap for PR and VI.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
527 AM AST WED MAR 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...RIDGE ALOFT WILL ERODE FRIDAY AND INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING MORE
UNSTABLE ALLOWING SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. AT LOW LEVELS...A STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENTER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...TIGHTENING THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS PREVAILED ACROSS PUERTO RICO
AND THE U.S VIRGIN ISLANDS OVERNIGHT. THESE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL TODAY...AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUE DOMINATING THE
LOCAL REGION. BY FRIDAY...THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL START TO
COLLAPSE...AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE
UNSTABLE BY THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION.

ALSO...A STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WHICH WILL TIGHTEN THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT.
THIS WILL CREATE A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN LOCAL SURFACE WINDS
ACROSS THE REGION. THESE WINDS WILL TRANSPORT PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM TIME TO TIME...BEGINNING ON FRIDAY...AND LASTING
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A LITTLE RELIEF
TO THE VERY DRY WEATHER PATTERN THAT WE HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING PAST
TWO WEEKS.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING
AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TJSJ 26/00Z SOUNDING INDICATED A
SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW OF 10-20 KNOTS FROM THE SURFACE TO AROUND 5K
FEET.

&&

.MARINE...NORTHERLY SWELL IS EXPECTED TO INVADE THE LOCAL WATERS
LATE THURSDAY...INCREASING SEAS POSSIBLY UP TO 8-9 FEET BY FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 74 86 75 / 10 20 20 40
STT 85 74 86 76 / 10 20 20 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
253 PM AST WED MAR 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO ERODE ON FRIDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC DIGGING INTO
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT THE
EAST COAST OF THE U.S. AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LATE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY...WHICH WILL CAUSE BREEZY CONDITIONS AS IT TIGHTENS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT.


&&

.DISCUSSION...FAIR WEATHER PREVAILED TODAY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND
SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF PR LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THEN SLIGHT
CHANCE OF PASSING SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE INCREASES SLIGHTLY.

INCREASE IN WINDS IS EXPECTED LATE ON THURSDAY AND INTO
FRIDAY...THIS MAY ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME TRADE WIND SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND PASSING
SHOWERS ON FRIDAY AS PATCHES OF MOISTURE PASS THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA.

THEREAFTER...A BIT MORE MOISTURE THAT WHAT WE HAVE HAD THE PAST
FEW DAYS IS EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK
...CAUSING PASSING SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND CAUSING
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA AND
AT ALL TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NO SIG OPERATIONAL WX
IMPACTS ARE FCST AT THIS TIME. ISOLD-SCT SHALLOW CLD LYRS BTW
FL020-FL050 AND MOSTLY CLR ABV. L/LVL WNDS FM ENE AT 5-15 KTS BLO
FL200 THEN BCMG NW AND INCR W/HT ABV WITH MAX WND OF 35-30 KTS NR
FL400.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL START TO SLOWLY BUILD TONIGHT...REACHING UP TO
4 FEET. HOWEVER NORTHERLY SWELL EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY WILL CAUSE
A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SEAS BY FRIDAY...POSSIBLY REACHING 8 TO
9 FEET WITH WINDS REACHING 20 KNOTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 85 74 85 / 20 20 40 40
STT 75 85 76 85 / 20 20 40 40

[cycloneye]

Good morning. More humid conditions will be present during the next few days in PR and adjacent islands.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
540 AM AST THU MAR 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC NEXT FEW DAYS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BECOME
STATIONARY FEW HUNDRED MILES NORTH OF THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND.
PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL AFFECT THE REGION FRIDAY AND
INTO THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LIGHT SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
OVERNIGHT...BUT ALMOST NO SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS OBSERVED OVER LAND
AREAS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH IS LOCATED FEW HUNDRED MILES
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA...IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THESE SHOWERS. A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TODAY...AS THIS BOUNDARY REMAINS
CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE LOCAL AREA.

A STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE U.S. EAST
COAST LATER TODAY...AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
DURING THE WEEKEND. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SURFACE
WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. THESE WINDS WILL TRANSPORT PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM TIME TO TIME...BEGINNING ON FRIDAY...AND LASTING
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A LITTLE RELIEF
TO THE VERY DRY WEATHER PATTERN THAT WE HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING PAST
TWO WEEKS.

IN THE LONG TERM...COMPUTER MODELS ARE SHOWING A GRADUAL INCREASE
IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH PW VALUES RISING TO NEAR 1.6
INCHES. MODELS SUGGEST A SERIES OF TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION NEXT WEEK...AND WILL ENHANCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS TIME...NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA AND
AT ALL TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NO SIGNIFICANT OPERATIONAL
WEATHER IMPACTS ARE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. ISOLATED-SCATTERED
SHALLOW CLOUD LAYERS BETWEEN FL020-FL050 WITH LIMITED CLOUD COVER
ALOFT. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AT 15-20 KT ARE EXPECTED BELOW FL200.

&&

.MARINE...NORTHWESTERLY SWELL IS EXPECTED TO INVADE THE
LOCAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...CAUSING HAZARDOUS SEAS OVER
THE LOCAL WATERS. SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD NEAR 9 FEET. REFER TO
LATEST CFWSJU PRODUCT FOR LATEST INFORMATION.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE
SOUTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO TODAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY LATE THIS MORNING...WITH WINDS APPROACHING 20 MPH. A
FIRE WEATHER STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 6 PM AST TONIGHT FOR
THE SOUTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 75 85 75 / 20 40 40 30
STT 85 75 85 76 / 20 40 40 20