Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

Good Morning
St Maarten is receiving lots of nice much needed rainfall this morning.

Very good to see that. Here we are also getting some rain especially in the SE part that needs it.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Scattered showers will move thru PR and adjacent islands today.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
432 AM AST SAT APR 5 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALONG 70W WILL MOVE ACROSS PR
THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD OVR THE NE CARIB
THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK LEADING TO A DRYING AND WARMING TREND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MODELS INDICATE DEEPER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
TODAY WHEN COMPARED TO YDAY AS SHORTWAVE-TROUGH ALONG 70W PROMOTES
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ENHANCES MID LEVEL INSTABILITY. POTENTIAL
DOES EXIST FOR T-STORMS TO PRODUCE SOME HAIL GIVEN H5 TEMPS NEAR
-10C AND 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES AROUND 5694 METERS BOTH OF WHICH
ARE -2SD FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. BOX AND WHISKER PLOTS INDICATE
K...SHOWALTER...SWEAT INDICES ARE NEAR THE MEDIAN FOR HAIL
EVENTS. EXPECT CONVECTION TO DIE OUT QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET WITH THE
LOSS OF HEATING AND RAPID HEIGHT RISES AS TROF EXITS THE AREA
EARLY THIS EVENING. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THEN BUILDS QUICKLY THROUGH
MID NEXT WEEK WITH A DRYING AND WARMING TREND. IT WILL ALSO BE
WINDY THRU TUE AS PRES GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT DUE TO HIGH PRES TO
THE NORTH. EXPECT FIRE DANGER TO INCREASE AFTER TODAY AS STRONG
WINDS DRY OUT FINE FUELS QUICKLY WITH RED FLAG CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE ON TUE WHEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE AT ITS MAXIMUM
AMPLITUDE.

&&

.AVIATION...LOW LEVEL RIDGE DIRECTLY NORTH OF PR/USVI WILL MAINTAIN
STRONG TRADE WINDS TODAY WITH MOISTURE FOR CONTINUED SHRA...MAYBE A
TSTM IN AFT. NITE SHRA TO CAUSE SOME OBSCD MTNS IN EAST PR AND BRF
MVFR TJSJ TO USVI AND LEEWARDS. AFT SHRA/TSRA TO CAUSE OBSCD MTNS IN
WEST PR AND PSBL MVFR AT TJMZ/TJBQ. WIND BLO FL100 E 8-22 KT THRU
SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS NEAR 20 KT THROUGH TUE WITH SEAS 5-7 FT IN MIXED
NORTH SWELLS AND ENE GENERATED WIND WAVES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 76 85 76 / 50 20 20 10
STT 84 76 86 76 / 40 20 20 10

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
247 PM AST SAT APR 5 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE
AREA SUNDAY. DRYING TREND EXPECTED TUESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
STRENGTHEN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STARTED TO DEVELOPED THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO AROUND 130 PM AST. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS HAD 45K FEET TOPS AROUND MARICAO AND MAYAGUEZ.
ELSEWHERE...SOME PASSING SHOWERS WERE NOTED MAINLY IN THE
SOUTHEAST SECTION OF PUERTO RICO. MEANWHILE...A BIG AREA OF
CLOUDINESS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WAS OBSERVED OVER THE
CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS...SOUTH OF SAINT CROIX. THIS AREA WEAKENS
CONSIDERABLY IN THE AFTERNOON...LEAVING ONLY LIGHT TO MODERATE
SHOWERS.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...AND WILL EXIT THE LOCAL AREA
BY SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS THE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE ACTIVITY OBSERVED
THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS WERE NOT AS STRONG AS EXPECTED...AS
MID LEVEL WERE A LITTLE WARMER THAN EXPECTED...AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BROUGHT DRIER AIR OVER THE AREA.

WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL GET DRIER AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS
THE REGION. THE DRIEST DAYS WILL BE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
...WITH LITTLE MOISTURE EXPECTED. IN FACT...COMPUTER MODELS
INDICATE PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL DROP TO LESS THAN 1 INCH...WHICH
WILL LIMIT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION. IN THE LONG
TERM...ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO EXIT THE U.S EAST
COAST LATE NEXT WEEK...AND WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST BY NEXT
WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME...THIS FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE
LOCAL AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT MOISTURE
ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA FOR CONTINUED SHRA ACROSS EASTERN PR
AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS TONIGHT...CAUSING SOME MOUNTAINS
OBSCURATION AND BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS TJSJ TO USVI
AND THE LEEWARDS ISLANDS. WIND BLO FL100 E 8-22 KT THRU SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...LOCAL BUOY OBSERVATION CONTINUES TO SHOW SEAS BETWEEN 5
TO 7 FEET...WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS OBSERVED IN THE OFFSHORE
ATLANTIC WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE
OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION DUE TO SEAS UP TO 6
FEET AND WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 85 76 86 / 20 20 10 10
STT 76 86 76 85 / 20 20 10 10

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Mainly dry weather will prevail today and for most of this week in PR and VI.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
420 AM AST SUN APR 6 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD QUICKLY OVER THE REGION
TODAY THROUGH MID WEEK AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN LATE IN THE WEEK. HIGH
PRES NORTH OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN WINDY CONDITIONS THRU TUE
WITH WINDS DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT MID WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE WEST WILL LEAD
TO SIGNIFICANT DRYING DURING THE NEXT 24 HRS WITH VERY DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED MON THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE ASSOCIATED
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION DOES NOT LOOK PARTICULARLY STRONG TODAY YET
TO COMPLETELY INHIBIT AFTERNOON SHOWER DEVELOPMENT TODAY SO WILL
MAINTAIN SCT POPS FOR NW PR WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF A T-STORM THERE.
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION STRENGTHENS SIGNIFICANTLY MON-WED LEADING TO
RAPID EROSION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS
BECOMING ALMOST NIL.

THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN FRI BUT THE MID LEVEL RIDGE HOLDS
RIGHT THRU THE END OF THE WEEK. AT THIS TIME...MODELS DO NOT SHOW ANY
SIG MOISTURE RECOVERY UNTIL NEXT SUN APR 13. SO A VERY DRY WEEK
IS IN STORE FOR THE AREA WITH HOT TEMPERATURES.


&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING EASTERLY WIND FLOW OF 15-25 KTS BLO FL100
WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT ISOLD-SCT PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL CLDS WITH
FEW EMBEDDED -SHRA/SHRA ACROSS LOCAL FLYING AREA BTW ERN PR AND NRN
LEEWARDS DURG PRD FM 06/8Z-06/12Z...BRIEF MTN TOP OBSCR MAINLY OVR
ERN PR FM 06/08Z-06/12Z. BRIEF SFC WND GUSTS ACCOMPANYING PASSING
SHOWERS AT LOCAL TAF SITES MAINLY TJSJ...TIST AND TISX. NO OTHER SIG
OPERATIONAL WX IMPACTS AT THIS TIME. AFTER 17Z...SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR SECTIONSOF PUERTO RICO...THESE SHOWERS
COULD AFFECT THE TJMZ THROUGH 22Z.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS NEAR 20 KT THRU TUE THEN DIMINISHING. NNE SWELLS
WILL PEAK EARLY THIS MORNING AND GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH TUE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...STRONG WINDS WILL LEAD TO RAPID DRYING OF FUELS
TODAY THROUGH TUE IN AREAS THAT HAD SOME RAIN LAST WEEK. BOTH CAMP
SANTIAGO AND CABO ROJO MISSED MOST OF THE RAIN WITH ONLY 0.20 AND
0.10 INCHES FALLING THERE RESPECTIVELY. THE LATEST KBDI AT CABO
ROJO REMAINS AT THE 90TH PERCENTILE WHILE AT CAMP SANTIAGO IS
AN ALL TIME HIGH USING A CLIMATOLOGY SINCE 2004. VIEQUES RAWS
LOCATED IN THE MIDDLE OF THE ISLAND HAS HAD 1.40 INCHES SO FAR IN
APRIL BUT THE EASTERN PORTION OF VIEQUES MISSED ALMOST ALL THE
RAIN. COTTON VALLEY RAWS IN ST. CROIX HAS HAD 1.28 INCHES SO FAR
IN APRIL WHILE CHRISTIANSTED ARPT HAS HAD 1.77 INCHES.
HOWEVER...LONG TERM (30-DAY) DEFICITS INDICATE BOTH THE EASTERN
PORTION OF VIEQUES AND SAINT CROIX ARE HAVING SIG RAINFALL
DEFICITS. IN ADDITION...RECENT VIIRS TRUE COLOR AND MODIS NDVI
IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THESE TWO ISLANDS
REMAIN BROWN WITH HIGH FUEL LOADING SUGGESTING FUELS ARE READY FOR
FIRE WITH HIGH SUSCEPTIBILITY TO BURNING. BASED ON LATEST GFS...RED
FLAG CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY BOTH MON AND TUE WITH FIRE WX
CONDITIONS IMPROVING SOMEWHAT WED AS WINDS DIMINISH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 76 87 75 / 10 10 10 0
STT 85 76 86 76 / 20 10 10 0

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
209 PM AST SUN APR 6 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD QUICKLY OVER
THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN LATE IN THE WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN WINDY CONDITIONS
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH WINDS DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT MID WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SOME LIGHT PASSING
SHOWERS WERE NOTED MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTHWEST SECTION OF
PUERTO RICO...WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL OVER SAN SEBASTIAN...MOCA
AND AGUADILLA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD QUICKLY
OVER THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL
PROMOTE VERY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH
ONLY SOME SHOWERS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS
MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR SECTION OF PUERTO RICO.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE WILL REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW 1 INCH MOST OF
NEXT WEEK...WITH ONLY PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AFFECTING THE
LOCAL AREA FROM TIME TO TIME. IN THE LONG TERM...NO SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER EVENTS ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE LOCAL REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT SOME
MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA FOR CONTINUED ISOLATED SHRA
ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA TONIGHT. SHRA WILL CAUSE SOME MOUNTAINS
OBSCURATION IN EAST PR AND BRIEF MVFR ACROSS TJSJ TO USVI AND THE
LEEWARDS ISLANDS. TJSJ 06/12Z SOUNDING INDICATED AN EAST SOUTHEAST
LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW OF 10 TO 25 KNOTS FROM THE SFC TO AROUND 12K
FEET...BECOMING FROM THE NORTH AND THEN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND
STRONGER ALOFT.

&&

.MARINE...LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOWED WAVE HEIGHT BETWEEN 5-6
FEET AT ALL NEARSHORE BUOYS ACROSS PR AND USVI. THE BUOY 41043
LOCATED NEAR 180 MILES NORTHEAST F SAN JUAN CONTINUE SHOWING WAVE
HEIGHT OF 7 FEET. THEREFORE...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC UNTIL TONIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR FIRE
DEVELOPMENT...THEREFORE...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM
MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR CULEBRA...SOUTH COASTAL
PLAINS AND MONA ISLAND.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 87 75 87 / 10 10 0 0
STT 76 86 76 87 / 10 10 0 0

[cycloneye]

Good morning. A few showers will move thru PR today but it will be mainly sunny.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
501 AM AST MON APR 7 2014

CORRECTED FOR HEADLINE SECTION BELOW

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE
REGION THROUGH MID WEEK LEADING TO A DRYING AND WARMING TREND.
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THRU TUE WITH WINDS DIMINISHING WED.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS HAS DEVELOPED BETWEEN THE USVI
AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING WHICH HAS BEEN MOVING
STEADILY WWD THE PAST FEW HOURS. LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG ALSO SEEN
OVR PR ON 11-3.9 MICRON IMAGERY COVERING THE CORDILLERA AND THE
SRN SLOPES. ALL OF THESE COMPLICATE THE FIRE WX FORECAST FOR
TODAY. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE PICKING UP ON ALL OF
THESE WITH MODELS NOW SHOWING SOME LIGHT PRECIP FOR THE SRN SLOPES
AND CORDILLERA LATER TODAY. FOR THIS REASON HAS CANCELLED THE FIRE
WX WATCH FOR TODAY. VERY SHARP DRYING NOW INDICATED BY MODELS
TONIGHT AND THE FIRST PART OF TUESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE
STRENGTHENS BETWEEN BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE WEST AND
DEVELOPING CUTOFF LOW EAST OF 60W.

SOME CLOUD FRAGMENTS OR SHALLOW AREAS OF MOISTURE MAY AFFECT AREA
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK MOST LIKELY WED BUT OVERALL IS A VERY DRY
PATTERN UNDER A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION/STRONG UPPER RIDGE.
RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AT THE END OF THE WEEK WITH SOME MOISTURE
RECOVERY BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS IS FCST FOR ENTIRE PRD AT ALL TAF SITES...
WITH NO SIG OPERATIONAL WX IMPACTS AT THIS TIME. ONLY ISOLD-SCT LOW
CLD LYRS BTW FL020-FL050 EN ROUTE BTW ERN PR AND NRN LEEWARDS AND
CLR ABVDURING THE MORNING HOURS. AFTER 7/17Z...ISOLATED TO LOCALLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS NEAR 20 KT THROUGH TUE THEN DIMINISHING WED ON.
SEAS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...CONFIDENCE HAS DECREASED IN RED FLAG CONDITIONS
TODAY DUE TO AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS OVR THE ANEGADA PASSAGE WHICH
MODELS BRING INTO OUR AREA LATER TODAY. FOR THIS REASON...THE FIRE
WX WATCH FOR TODAY HAS BEEN CANCELLED BUT A NEW WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR TUE. UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN
TONIGHT AND TUE WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO FURTHER STRENGTHENING OF THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND FURTHER EROSION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
OVERALL...VERY DRY HOT WEEK IN STORE BUT THE WINDS DIMINISH AFTER
TUE WHICH SHOULD LESSEN THE FIRE RISK SOMEWHAT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 75 88 75 / 10 0 0 10
STT 85 75 87 76 / 10 0 0 10

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
225 PM AST MON APR 7 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE
REGION THROUGH MID WEEK LEADING TO A DRYING AND WARMING TREND.
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUE WITH WINDS DIMINISHING WED.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLOUDINESS WITH SOME SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS EAST OF PUERTO RICO. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS MOVED
INLAND OVER THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. LATER
IN THE AFTERNOON...SHOWERS BEGAN TO DEVELOPED ACROSS THE WESTERN
INTERIOR SECTION OF PUERTO RICO. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY. ONLY SOME PASSING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED.

AFTER TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD QUICKLY ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. THIS SYSTEM WILL PROMOTE VERY DRY AIR ACROSS
THE REGION WITH LITTLE SHOWERS ACTIVITY EXPECTED. BREEZE
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT.

IN THE LONG TERM...A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHEASTERN U.S
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND WILL ENTER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY MID
THIS WEEK. AT THIS TIME...THIS FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE
LOCAL AREA. THEREFORE...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENT ARE FORECAST
TO AFFECT THE REGION IN THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS W AND NW PUERTO RICO THROUGH 7/20Z. THESE SHOWERS MAY CAUSE
BRIEF MVFR CONDS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS IN AND AROUND TJMZ. EAST
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 15 TO 20 KTS FROM THE SURFACE TO
AROUND 5 KFT.

&&

.MARINE...BOUY 42059 IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN HAS BEEN SHOWING
SEAS BETWEEN 7-8 FEET IN THE LAST 12 HOURS. IN ADDITION...SURFACE
WINDS HAS BEEN AROUND 21 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25KTS. DUE TO
THIS...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY FOR THE
OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN WATERS AND THE MONA PASSAGE THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. ELSEWHERE...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN
TONIGHT AND TUE WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO FURTHER STRENGTHENING OF THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND FURTHER EROSION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
OVERALL...VERY DRY HOT WEEK IN STORE BUT THE WINDS DIMINISH AFTER
TUESDAY WHICH SHOULD LESSEN THE FIRE RISK SOMEWHAT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 88 75 89 / 10 10 10 10
STT 75 87 76 86 / 20 20 10 10

[cycloneye]

A perfect day in San Juan to visit the beach.

[Macrocane]

Hi!
It has been hot as hell in Central America in the last month as it is expected for March and April, fortunately will get a short but welcomed relief this week as an unusually late season cold front will reach the area Tuesday night:

ATTENTION REMAINS FOCUSED ON THE NEXT LATE SEASON GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT FORECAST TO REACH MINIMAL STORM
FORCE. NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20-30 KT WILL BEGIN TO BLOW THROUGH
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TUE AFTERNOON AND WILL QUICKLY INCREASE
TO 30-40 KT WED AT 0000 UTC. COMPUTER MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING INCREASING WINDS TO 30-45 KT BY WED AT 0600
UTC AND TO 40-50 KT BY WED AT 1200 UTC LIKELY WITH THE
ASSISTANCE OF THE NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
BUILD UP TO 22-23 FT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THESE STORM FORCE
WINDS. A STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA. THIS GAP
WIND EVENT IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO GALE FORCE BY WED
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO THU MORNING. THEN...EXPECT WINDS TO
FURTHER DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE BY THU AFTERNOON. THIS GAP
WIND EVENT WILL BE INDUCED BY A STRONG COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Mainly dry weather will prevail today in PR and VI with the danger of forest fires.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
423 AM AST TUE APR 8 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH THU
THEN BEGIN TO FLATTEN AT THE END OF THE WEEK. VERY WINDY AGAIN
TODAY WITH WINDS DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT WED ON.


&&

.DISCUSSION...A LOT OF UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE INDICATED BY MODELS
OVER THE NEXT SVRL DAYS AS AREA REMAINS ON THE BACK SIDE OF A
DEVELOPING CUTOFF LOW EAST OF 60W. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS BUILDS
OVERHEAD THU AND FRI WITH RIDGE FLATTENING SAT AND EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS DEEP POLAR TROUGH OVR ERN NORTH AMERICA MOVES INTO THE WRN
ATLC. THIS WILL SUPPORT A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WITH FAIR WX
CONDITIONS RIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. MOISTURE BEGINS TO
RECOVER SUN NIGHT AND MON AS SERIES OF SRN STREAM DISTURBANCES
FINALLY ERODE THE RIDGE ALLOWING FOR SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING OF THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT.


&&

.AVIATION...WINDY CONDITIONS AGAIN AT ALL TAF SITES XCPT AT JMZ
WHERE A WEST WIND WILL OFFSET THE PREVAILING EASTERLIES. FAIR WX
EXPECTED NEXT 24HRS. WINDS DIMINISH SOMEWHAT WED ON.


&&

.MARINE...LINGERING NE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE WITH WINDS
DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT WED ON. SEAS 4-6 FT TODAY DIMINISHING TO
2-4 FT BY FRI.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD LEAD
TO SOME DRYING TODAY ENOUGH TO BRING RH`S TO THE RFW CRITERIA.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO HOWL LIKE THEY DID YESTERDAY. ACTUALLY THEY
MIGHT A BIT STRONGER TODAY. A 0210Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED 24-KT WINDS
OVR THE CARIB SEA JUST SOUTH OF PR AND A 0309Z ACARS SOUNDING FROM
BORINQUEN ARPT SHOWED 0-1 KM AVG WINDS OF 22-KT. SO PLENTY OF WIND
OUT THERE TO MAKE FIRE CONTAINMENT VERY DIFFICULT WITH ANY FIRES
TODAY. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY DRY RIGHT THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH CRITICAL RH`S BUT THE WINDS DIMINISH ALMOST 5 KNOTS
ON WED MAKING RFW CONDITIONS LESS LIKELY. WILL EVALUATE THE FIRE
WX POTENTIAL DAY TO DAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 75 89 75 / 10 10 10 10
STT 87 76 86 76 / 10 10 10 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
243 PM AST TUE APR 8 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD FROM
THE WEST...AND HOLD THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS FEATURE WILL THEN
ERODE AS TROUGH ALOFT ESTABLISHES ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE
AREA WILL MAINTAIN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT TONIGHT WITH FRESH
TRADE WINDS. WINDS DIMINISH SOMEWHAT WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND AS HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST AND WEAKENS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS EXPECTED...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY WITH MINIMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY. TEMPERATURES WERE
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH A FRESH TO LOCALLY
STRONG EAST SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW.

A FAIR AND STABLE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS RIDGE ALOFT AND
ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION DOMINATE THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...
WITH THE PREVAILING WIND FLOW...STILL EXPECT A FEW ISOLATED LATE
EVENING AND EARLY MORNING PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS...
FOLLOWED BY LIMITED AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE
INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTED THAT THE DAY WITH BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS IS TOMORROW AS A POCKET OF MOISTURE MOVES
IN FROM THE EAST.

WINDS DIMINISH SOMEWHAT WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA SHIFTS EAST AND WEAKENS. AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS FURTHER EAST...WINDS WILL BECOME
MORE SOUTHERLY. THEREFORE...WARMER TEMPERATURES IN SAN JUAN AND
ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO CAN BE EXPECTED AT LEAST
THROUGH FRIDAY. MOISTURE BEGINS TO RECOVER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
AS TROFINESS FINALLY ERODES THE RIDGE...ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE
ADVECTION AND BETTER DYNAMICS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS FROM THE
SURFACE UP TO 5 KFT AT 10 TO 20 KT.

&&

.MARINE...LINGERING NE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE WITH WINDS
DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT ON WEDNESDAY. SEAS 4-6 FT TONIGHT DIMINISHING
TO 2-4 FT BY FRI.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 87 75 87 / 10 20 10 10
STT 76 86 75 86 / 20 20 20 20

[Macrocane]

The late season cold front is very well defined and is already producing showers in northern Central America:

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Dry weather will prevail today in PR with only isolated showers moving thru.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
545 AM AST WED APR 9 2014

.SYNOPSIS...POLAR TROUGH APPROACHING THE EASTERN SEABOARD OF THE UNITED
STATES WILL ENTER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THIS MORNING...THEN REACH
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BY THURSDAY. THE TROUGH IS TO GRADUALLY
LIFT EAST NORTHEAST...WHILE PRESSING AGAINST A HIGH AMPLITUDE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WHICH EXTENDS NORTHWARDS FROM THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN... ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES...THEN INTO THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC. THE RIDGE ALOFT IS TO GRADUALLY ERODE AS THE TROUGH
LIFTS FURTHER NORTHEAST. HOWEVER IT WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
THE LOCAL WEATHER PATTERN AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. THIS WILL HELP MAINTAIN THE TRADE WIND CAP INVERSION
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AT LOW LEVELS... A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE EXTENDS SOUTHWARDS ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL
ATLANTIC...AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE WEST ATLANTIC. THE COLD
FRONT IS TO EVENTUALLY STALL ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND
DISSIPATE WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS HOWEVER
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AS THE ASSOCIATED BERMUDA HIGH PULLS FURTHER NORTH AND
NORTHEAST OF THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...EASTERLY TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DECREASE
TODAY AS LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS. THIS WILL LIMIT ADVECTION
OF TRADE WIND SHOWERS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FOR TODAY HOWEVER...A BAND OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS ALONG WITH LOCAL AND DIURNAL EFFECTS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
TO HELP INCREASE CLOUDINESS AND DAYTIME CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF
THE ISLANDS. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY HOWEVER WILL BE LIMITED TO PARTS
OF THE INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...WITH LESSER
SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.

FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...THE RIDGE ALOFT
AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE
LOCAL WEATHER PATTERN...WITH AN OVERALL DRYING TREND STILL EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE. AS SUGGESTED BY THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...NO SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE ADVECTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS
TIME OR IN THE NEAR FUTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST TAF SITES
THROUGH AT LEAST 09/22Z. INCREASING CLOUDINESS WITH PASSING SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED OVER TJPS THIS MORNING. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...CLOUDINESS
WITH SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF TJMZ AND TJBQ...WHICH
COULD PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY EAST SOUTHEAST AT
10 TO 15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION AS SEAS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO REACH UP TO 6 FEET AND WINDS TO NEAR 20 KNOTS. PLEASE
REFER TO THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE WFO SAN
JUAN PUERTO RICO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 75 87 75 / 20 10 10 20
STT 86 75 87 77 / 20 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
235 PM AST WED APR 9 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH FRIDAY...AND SLOWLY ERODE DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL...BECOMING EASTERLY ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VARIABLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY...WITH SHOWERS OBSERVED ACROSS SOUTHEAST
PUERTO RICO DURING THE MORNING HOURS...SPREADING INTO WESTERN
PUERTO RICO IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID 80S
AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH A FRESH EAST SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW.

SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVER PUERTO RICO...AS AN AREA
OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MOVE AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA. THEREFORE...
MOSTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND OVERNIGHT.

A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN WILL THEN
PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THURSDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY...AS RIDGE ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
DOMINATE THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...WITH THE PREVAILING EAST
SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW...STILL EXPECT A FEW ISOLATED LATE EVENING
AND EARLY MORNING PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS...
FOLLOWED BY LIMITED AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE
INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. IN ADDITION...THE
AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW...WILL PROMOTE WARMER
TEMPERATURES IN SAN JUAN AND ALONG THE NORTH THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY. MOISTURE BEGINS TO RECOVER SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS RIDGE
FINALLY COLLAPSES ALLOWING BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS.

&&

.AVIATION...CLOUDINESS WITH SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF
PUERTO RICO AT LEAST UNTIL 10/00Z...PRODUCING BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. THEN VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED AFTER 10/06Z ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL CONTINUE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS OVER ALL OTHER LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION AS SEAS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO REACH UP TO 6 FEET AND WINDS TO NEAR 20 KNOTS. PLEASE
REFER TO THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE WFO SAN
JUAN PUERTO RICO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 87 75 87 / 10 10 20 20
STT 75 87 77 86 / 20 10 30 30

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Mainly good weather will prevail today in PR and VI.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
433 AM AST THU APR 10 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL LEVEL RIDGE NOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY ERODE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS A POLAR
TROUGH MOVES FURTHER EASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. IN THE
MEANTIME...THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN OVERALL SUBSIDENCE AND
FAIRLY STRONG TRADE WIND INVERSION ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN.
IN THE LOW LEVELS...THE UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTED BY A COLD FRONT
WHICH EXTENDS ACROSS CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN.
THE FRONT IS TO STALL WELL NORTH OF THE REGION AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
CENTRAL ATLANTIC...WILL CONTINUE TO RECEDE FURTHER NORTH WHILE MAINTAINING
A PREVAILING SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS FLOW ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING
WATERS. LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL HOWEVER CONTINUE TO LOOSEN AS THE
HIGH PULLS FURTHER NORTHWARDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION....LATEST GFS MODEL GUIDANCE INITIALIZED FAIRLY WELL
WITH PRESENT WEATHER CONDITION...AND CONTINUE TO SUGGEST AN OVERALL
DRYING TREND TODAY AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. RIDGE ALOFT IS
TO MAINTAIN ITS HOLD TO INDUCE SUBSIDENCE AND SUFFICIENTLY STRONG
CAP INVERSION TO SUPPRESS ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
THE DECREASING TRADE WINDS WILL LIMIT MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS
THE REGION...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FORECAST TO CONTINUE
TO DROP BELOW AN INCH OVER AT LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY. THAT SAID...
ONLY SOME LOCALLY INDUCED ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
ACROSS SOME OF THE ISLANDS TODAY.

THE LOCAL TRADE WINDS ARE TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY DURING THE LATE
THIS EVENING AND INTO FRIDAY...AND WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH IN
RESPONSE TO THE WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
MORE LOCAL SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS OVER THE WEEKEND. ALL IN ALL
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUED TO SUGGEST OVERALL FAIR WEATHER SKIES
WITH ONLY FEW SHOWERS EACH DAY ACROSS THE ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.

FOR THE LONG TERM...MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
PWAT VALUES BY SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS THE
UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS AND ALLOWS WEAK EASTERLY PERTURBATIONS TO
TRANSPORT PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER
BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS TO EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND WILL MOVE INTO THE REST OF PUERTO
RICO THRU 10/16Z. AFT 10/17Z AREAS OF SHRA WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
WESTERN AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PR IN THE VICINITY OF TJMZ BRINGING
LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS UNTIL
10/22Z. TJSJ 10/00Z SOUNDING INDICATED A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND
FLOW FROM THE SFC TO AROUND 10K FEET...BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY UP TO
20 KNOTS FROM 10-25K FEET AND THEN NORTHERLY AND STRONGER 25K FEET.


&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION DUE TO WINDS AROUND
18 KNOTS OR SO ACROSS THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC AND MONA PASSAGE.
OVERALL SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE REGIONAL
WATERS...WITH SEAS OF LESS THAN 5 FEET AND WINDS OF 18 KNOTS OF
LESS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFO...PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS
FORECAST ISSUED BY WFO SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 74 86 74 / 10 20 20 10
STT 86 76 86 77 / 10 30 30 10

[cycloneye]

Beautiful sunrise in the central mountain range of PR.

[Macrocane]

The cold front has reached unusually far south for this time of year and now extends to Panama. The winds have been the strongest in Central America since the first week of January. The strongest wind gust have been:

Belmopan, Belice 35 km/h (22 mph)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 50 km/h (31 mph)
San Salvador, El Salvador 50 km/h (31 mph)
Dulce Nombre de María, El Salvador 100 km/h (63 mph)
Monseñor Romero International Airport, El Salvador 80 km/h (50 mph)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 50 km/h (31 mph)
Nueva Ocotepeque, Honduras 95 km/h (59 mph)
Managua, Nicaragua 50 km/h (31 mph)
San Jose, Costa Rica 75 km/h (22 mph)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 85 km/h (47 mph)
Panama City, Panama 40 km/h (25 mph)
Boquete, Panamá 50 km/h (31 mph)

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
230 PM AST THU APR 10 2014

.SYNOPSIS...RIDGE ALOFT WILL SLOWLY ERODE FRIDAY AND INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE NORTH OF THE
AREA. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY...
BECOMING EASTERLY ON SATURDAY. FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL WELL
NORTH OF THE REGION AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAILED TODAY...WITH LIMITED
SHOWER ACTIVITY OBSERVED ACROSS THE CORDILLERA AND WEST PUERTO
RICO. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS
WITH A LIGHT TO FRESH EAST SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW.

A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH AT LEAST THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...
AS RIDGE ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE DOMINATE THE FORECAST
AREA. HOWEVER...WITH THE PREVAILING EASTERLY WIND FLOW...A FEW
LATE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD
AREAS CANT BE RULED OUT...WITH LIMITED AFTERNOON ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO EACH DAY. THE CHANCES FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT WILL
INCREASE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS RIDGE ALOFT FINALLY COLLAPSES
ALLOWING BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT. HOWEVER...MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUE TO AGREE ON LITTLE TO NO FORCING AND MOSTLY LIGHT TO
LOCALLY MODERATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

&&

.AVIATION...CLOUDINESS WITH SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN RANGE OF PUERTO RICO AT LEAST UNTIL 10/22Z...PRODUCING
PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. THEN VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. EASTERLIES WILL
CONTINUE MAINLY AT 10-15 KTS DURING THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON THEN
AT NIGHT LIGHTER LAND BREEZE VARIATIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS OF LESS THAN 5 FEET AND EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 17
KNOTS OR LESS ARE EXPECTED. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE
REFER TO THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS FORECAST ISSUED BY WFO SAN
JUAN IN PUERTO RICO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 88 75 88 / 20 20 10 10
STT 76 86 76 86 / 30 30 10 10

[Macrocane]

A 6.2 magnitude earthquake occurred this afternoon in Nicaragua damaging dozens of homes and injuring at least 25 people, fortunately no deaths have been reported: http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=67&t=116271&p=2378180#p2378180

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Mainly good weather will prevail today in PR and VI with only a few showers moving thru.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
527 AM AST FRI APR 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN ITS HOLD ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. THE RIDGE WILL HOWEVER CONTINUE TO SLOWLY ERODE OVER
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
IS FORECAST TO STEER EASTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC JUST NORTH OF
THE LOCAL REGION. EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE EARLY
PART OF TODAY BECOMING MORE EAST TO NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL WELL NORTH OF THE REGION AND
EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE. MEANWHILE...AN INDUCED TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION
WILL CONTINUE TO FILL/WEAKEN AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AND
SPREADS FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OVER THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.


&&

.DISCUSSION...PERSISTENT MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN WILL
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT OVERALL FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS AS A MODERATE
SUBSIDENCE CAP INVERSION WILL HOLD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR
ANOTHER DAY OR TWO. THIS PATTERN WILL HELP TO SUPPRESS AND LIMIT
MOISTURE TRANSPORT RESULTING IN A GENERALLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN
ACROSS THE REGION. MOSTLY PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
THEREFORE PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY EVENING...WITH MOST
OF THE CONVECTION IF ANY LIMITED TO THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NORTH OF THE AREA...WILL BRING A
RETURN OF THE MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS LATER TODAY AND OVER
THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL THEN INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR PERIODS OF
PASSING SHOWERS MAINLY ON THE WINDWARD SIDES OF THE ISLANDS DURING
THE MORNING HOURS. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY LIMITED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS MAINLY EXPECTED TO FORM ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR AND
WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

BY LATE SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK EXPECT AN EVEN BETTER CHANCE OF
TRADE WIND MOISTURE TRANSPORT...AS THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BREAKS
DOWN AND ALLOW PATCHES OF TRADE WIND MOISTURE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN. LATEST GFS MODEL GUIDANCE
HOWEVER SUGGESTS NO SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE ADVECTION OR
TRANSPORT...BUT EXPECT THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE ISLANDS EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
LOCAL TERMINALS WITH VCSH EXPECTED ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND
GRADUALLY MOVING WEST TO THE USVI AND EASTERN PR BY 11/14Z. PATCH OF
MOISTURE EXPECTED TO CAUSE INCREASE CLOUDS IN PR AFTER 11/15Z
POSSIBLY CAUSING CIGS AT AROUND FL060 WITH PASSING SHRA CONTINUING.
WINDS FROM THE EAST AT 10 KT OR LESS OVERNIGHT...INCREASING
GRADUALLY AFTER 11/12Z AT ABOUT 15-20 KT MAINLY FROM THE EAST.

&&

.MARINE...TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS WINDS
AND SEAS HAVE CONTINUED TO DIMINISH. WINDS AND SEAS OF 17 KNOTS
AND 5 FEET OR LESS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS TODAY.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WFO SAN JUAN PR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 73 86 72 / 20 10 10 30
STT 85 74 86 75 / 20 20 20 30