ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[cycloneye]

Here is the latest update of the sub-surface graphics and continues to show the big warm pool with the same very warm readings.

[Ntxw]

Although I do see the parallels between 97 event and this year in the EPAC the Atlantic is a different story as we have a fairly large warm pool in the W. Atlantic versus in 97 which was showing mostly warm pool off Africa and cool waters in W. Atlantic. I also went back to the 04, 06, 09 events and they were all similar in profile to 97. I don't see a close parallel for this ENSO year. Granted it is early but it something I will keep my eye on. May be a problem for home brew systems.

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2014/anomnight.4.3.2014.gif

I respect your thought and it is a valid one for Hurricane season. But I'm not sure how Atlantic SST's has any effects on ENSO and the El Nino. The Atlantic SST's is currently not like 1997, or the other years you listed because it is -AMO set up as the readings show similar to the 80s and early 90s instead of the +AMO active years from 1995 forward. Home brews are favored in this set up, but for we also know this configuration can be unfavorable for the season as a whole as well (even without El Nino) when you're talking about -AMO productivity.

If you want to see a similar -AMO SST configuration with El Nino in the Pacific trying to turn on with a similar Atlantic not many come closer than 1994. Of course that Nino is likely weaker than the one turning on now.

[blp]

Although I do see the parallels between 97 event and this year in the EPAC the Atlantic is a different story as we have a fairly large warm pool in the W. Atlantic versus in 97 which was showing mostly warm pool off Africa and cool waters in W. Atlantic. I also went back to the 04, 06, 09 events and they were all similar in profile to 97. I don't see a close parallel for this ENSO year. Granted it is early but it something I will keep my eye on. May be a problem for home brew systems.

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2014/anomnight.4.3.2014.gif

I respect your thought and it is a valid one for Hurricane season. But I'm not sure how Atlantic SST's has any effects on ENSO and the El Nino. The Atlantic SST's is currently not like 1997, or the other years you listed because it is -AMO set up as the readings show similar to the 80s and early 90s instead of the +AMO active years from 1995 forward. Home brews are favored in this set up, but for we also know this configuration can be unfavorable for the season as a whole as well (even without El Nino) when you're talking about -AMO productivity.

If you want to see a similar -AMO SST configuration with El Nino in the Pacific trying to turn on with a similar Atlantic not many come closer than 1994. Of course that Nino is likely weaker than the one turning on now.

Sorry you are correct. I should have posted in the other thread. Maybe the mods can move. Thank you for pointing this out.

[cycloneye]

blp,it can stay in this thread because ENSO is mentioned a lot in the posts and replie.

[cycloneye]

Great,informative long post at WU by Dr Michael Ventrice about how things stand on how El Nino is progressing:

There have been tremendous changes in the Pacific Ocean over the past two months which continue to favor a moderate to strong El Niño event later this spring and summer. Since my previous post on February 21, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) has issued an El Niño watch.

To begin, we are currently observing what looks to be the strongest downwelling oceanic Kelvin wave event since satellite records began in the 1970s. This still needs to be verified in reanalysis, but a large swath of 6°C (11°F) ocean temperature anomalies at a depth of 100 - 200 meters (Figure 1) clearly illustrates the significance of this event. To review, oceanic Kelvin waves travel only from west to east at extremely slow speeds (2-3 m/s). These waves have been alluded to as the facilitators of El Niño. There are two phases of an oceanic Kelvin wave, the “Upwelling” phase and the “Downwelling” phase. The Upwelling phase of an oceanic Kelvin wave pushes colder water from the sub-surface towards the surface, resulting in cooling at the surface. The Downwelling phase is the opposite, where warmer waters at the surface of the West Pacific warm pool are forced to sink, resulting a deepening of the thermocline and net warming in the sub-surface.

http://icons.wxug.com/hurricane/2014/ke ... -mar29.gif

Departure of ocean temperature from average along the Equator in the Pacific Ocean on March 29, 2014 (top), shows a large area of 6°C (11°F) ocean temperature anomalies at a depth of 100 - 200 meters



In the West Pacific, the thermocline is rising in response to strong upwelling (cold ocean temperature anomalies near the surface). In the central and eastern Pacific, the thermocline is deepening as the warm pool has begun to rapidly shift towards the Date Line. An enlightening time lapse can be found on the NOAA/CPC webpage. Note the lens of colder than average ocean temperature anomalies at the surface in the far eastern Pacific. This can be attributed to a surge in the Easterly trade winds over the eastern equatorial Pacific, which pushes water away from the coast, resulting in some upwelling off the west coast of South America. The surge in the trade winds is just an expression of atmospheric processes occurring in the tropics at intra-seasonal (weekly) timescales. Nevertheless, it is evident that the entire West Pacific Warm Pool has begun to shift eastward, and there is a large adjustment in the Pacific Ocean currently underway.

That being said, we still need to see some favorable atmospheric forcing this month to continue the forward advancement of a full-basin El Niño. In particular, west-to-east blowing winds along the Equator are needed to keep pushing warm water eastwards towards South America. Keeping this in mind, there are some signs of an upcoming period of westerly wind bursts along the equatorial Central Pacific in the next few weeks.

http://icons.wxug.com/hurricane/2014/cckw-apr2.png

Rainfalls rates over the Indian Ocean (shaded colors), departure of the winds at 200 mb from average (arrows), and Kelvin filtered velocity potential at 200 mb

An exceptionally strong atmospheric convectively coupled Kelvin wave (CCKW) is currently propagating across the equatorial Indian Ocean. IMPORTANT: An atmospheric CCKW is DIFFERENT than an oceanic Kelvin wave since atmospheric CCKWs are stratospheric waves in the *atmosphere* that are confined to just the equatorial band. Thus we cannot experience a CCKW passage in North America. CCKWs often couple with thunderstorm activity within the troposphere in the tropics. In addition, CCKWs in the atmosphere are non-dispersive in theory, so they can make many circuits around the globe before attenuating from external forcing such as friction; oceanic Kelvin waves can only travel the distance of whatever basin they are in (in this case, the Pacific). However, *both* atmospheric CCKWs and oceanic Kelvin waves propagate from west to east only.

GFS model forecast for April 6, 2014. Six-hour precipitation rates are shaded. Often during and up to a few days after the passage of a strong CCKW, tropical cyclones can develop on either side of the Equator, depending on the season. An example can be seen over the Southern Indian Ocean this week, where the GFS model is forecasting the development of a tropical “gyre” that could become a tropical depression. Note the equatorial westerlies are a component of the anatomy of the CCKW circulation itself.

The forecast calls for this Indian Ocean CCKW to push across the Date Line during mid-April. This would be a time when we might see another period of westerly winds develop across the equatorial Central Pacific--favorable atmospheric conditions for a full-basin El Niño to emerge. The anticipated westerly wind burst in mid-April may be composed of individual tropical cyclones, or extra-tropical waves intruding the tropics.

In addition to the CCKW itself, there are higher than average probabilities of another developing Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) to emerge over the West Pacific following the passage of this strong CCKW, in mid-to-late April. A great deal of my graduate study work focused on CCKW-MJO interactions and the plot below is from Ventrice et al. (2012), which is of a time-longitude composite plot of unfiltered VP200 anomalies (shaded), Kelvin filtered outgoing long wave radiation (OLR) anomalies (black contours), and MJO filtered OLR anomalies (orange contours). From selecting only dates where a strong CCKW passed the eastern tropical Atlantic, a lagged composite approach from these dates reveal a remarkable picture. Once the CCKW passes across Africa to over the Indian Ocean, we often observe a developing MJO event over the Indian Ocean that then propagates eastward across the Pacific region thereafter. There are increased chances of a similar scenario to play out over the next few weeks.

http://icons.wxug.com/hurricane/2014/ventrice-2012.png

Why does this matter for El Niño? Well, within and following the passage the convectively active phase of the MJO, we often observe an increased number of West Pacific typhoons and low-level westerly wind flow. This is what is likely needed to continue the eastward advancement of the West Pacific Warm Pool this spring, and provides more evidence for a full-basin El Niño event to emerge later this spring in through summer. Furthermore, it is important to note that the latest climate model forecasts are now more aggressive with the amplitude of the potential emerging El Niño. This can be seen in both the ECMWF and CFSv2 Niño3.4 forecasts.

Bottom Line: The Pacific Ocean continues to show signs of a developing moderate to strong El Niño event. During strong full-basin El Niño’s, we often observe cooler than average temperatures in summer across the eastern two thirds of the U.S., and lower than average Atlantic hurricane activity.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... #commentop

[cycloneye]

Comparison between April 4 1997 and April 4 2014 gives the edge to 2014.

April 4 1997 is the top graphic and April 4 2014 is the bottom one.

[Ntxw]

Ocean heat anomalies in the tropical Pacific continues to rise. It is officially greater than the 2009 El Nino, the biggest of the 2000s, in this regard which peaked around +1.5C in NOV-DEC period. Not to be confused with ONI, but the two do, in a sense, reflect each other and can give you a hint the ceiling of an event. Must also remember the peak for every ENSO event such as the image below is generally late fall and early NHEM winter. Quite impressive so early.

[Ntxw]

MJO/Kelvin waves a coming as is those WWB

[Hammy]

I'm still noticing a persistent cold pool off of South America, as well as substantial cooling across much of the Pacific (including some areas along the equator) and am not sure exactly what to make of this. Even the sub-surface warm pool seems to be having trouble edging out the cooler waters to the east.

[cycloneye]

The uptick of CFSv2 model is seen.

[Kingarabian]

I'm still noticing a persistent cold pool off of South America, as well as substantial cooling across much of the Pacific (including some areas along the equator) and am not sure exactly what to make of this. Even the sub-surface warm pool seems to be having trouble edging out the cooler waters to the east.

That cold "pool" is still there, but Nino 1+2 has warmed and is almost at 0.0C. If you read the previous pages, you would have a better understanding on why Nino 1+2 keeps flunctiating.

The only areas near the equator that matter in regards to El-Nino are the Nino regions. Nino 4, 3.4, and 3 are already at and maintaining weak El-Nino readings (in April!).

We're still waiting for the MJO and a WWB that are forecasted to arrive in mid April, and once they do arrive, we should see rapid warming. The warming we're seeing right now is just adding more flavor to the pot.

[Ntxw]

With the next CPC update being the day after tomorrow, it could be anywhere between +0.2C and +0.5C.

Some markers to compare (not making the assumptions it is the same just as a milestones) to look at with 1997 For April

1997 Begins the month with 0.0C
April 9th saw +0.2C
April 16th saw +0.3C
April 23rd saw +0.6C<- The first Nino reading
April 30th saw +0.6C

I know wxman57 will be mapping it out for us, so lets see how it fares

And just for fun here is 2009 for April, the biggest Nino of the 2000s. No contest here.

April 1st saw -0.4C
April 8th saw -0.2C
April 15th saw -0.2C
April 22nd saw -0.2C
April 29th saw -0.1C

First Nino reading that year came June 17th at +0.5C

Typically in a real full fledged El Nino of moderate strength or greater once you get the first 0.5C reading it only goes up from there

[Ntxw]

The uptick of CFSv2 model is seen.

http://oi58.tinypic.com/2z3ys0h.jpg

It is predicting the El Nino to begin this month and be in place by May. Will be interesting if this is true, would be one of the fastest starts. I may up my guess of the CPC declaring it in late May vs June if that pans out from a watch to warning.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

The uptick of CFSv2 model is seen.

http://oi58.tinypic.com/2z3ys0h.jpg

Won't get surprised if they raise their forecast in the near future to +2.5. I could see that this has warmer anomalies than 1997. They could even raise their forecast to +3.0!

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Just need that cold pool near South America to be replaced by very warm anomalies at the subsurface, then this Eastern Equatorial Super El Nino would definitely be a reality. The MJO and WWB would help this blip, Nino 1+2 going down, go up and reach warm Neutral/ El Nino status. They could also help the subsurface warm pool go closer to the surface and make it be stronger!!!

[Ntxw]

I'm not impressed by that cold pocket one bit. It's done nothing but delaying the inevitable for 1+2, which is all forecasted to shoot up faster than arguably any other region. Here's the latest GODAS March 29th included, thermocline is still one of the most intense we've tracked. We post so much of it we don't realize this is not normal. It is not supposed to be this deep and warm this time of year for your typical Nino. You just do not see this kind of thermocline happen even at normal Nino peaks!



In fact, all guidance predicts by mid April it will be in moderate Nino territory (1+2) even quicker than 3.4, which is only two weeks away not months away.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

:uarrow: I'm not impressed by that cold pocket one bit. It's done nothing but delaying the inevitable for 1+2, which is all forecasted to shoot up faster than arguably any other region. Here's the latest GODAS March 29th included, thermocline is still one of the most intense we've tracked. We post so much of it we don't realize this is not normal. It is not supposed to be this deep and warm this time of year for your typical Nino. You just do not see this kind of thermocline happen even at normal Nino peaks!

http://i60.tinypic.com/8vtg77.gif

In fact, all guidance predicts by mid April it will be in moderate Nino territory (1+2) even quicker than 3.4, which is only two weeks away not months away.

http://i57.tinypic.com/2njbli0.gif

Will this be Modoki transitioning to traditional? I see when 3.4 peaks at +2.0 then goes down, 1+2 goes at just +1.5 then goes up...

[Ntxw]

Will this be Modoki transitioning to traditional? I see when 3.4 peaks at +2.0 then goes down, 1+2 goes at just +1.5 then goes up...

This is not likely to be a modoki. Everyday that goes by it increasingly becomes less likely. A true modoki will have Nino 1+2, and parts 3 remain in La Nina values like in 2004 when it remained below 0C all the way through October/November. To get a modoki you must have a substantial large cold pool underneath the sub-surface countering the warm pool. This does not exist. What is possible is a full basin Nino where the warmest values are in 3.4 and 3. But technically that falls under traditional because there is no La Nina-like cold pool.

This is what a true Modoki looks like. There is very little support for something like this.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Will this be Modoki transitioning to traditional? I see when 3.4 peaks at +2.0 then goes down, 1+2 goes at just +1.5 then goes up...

This is not likely to be a modoki. Everyday that goes by it increasingly becomes less likely. A true modoki will have Nino 1+2, and parts 3 remain in La Nina values like in 2004 when it remained below 0C all the way through October/November. To get a modoki you must have a substantial large cold pool underneath the sub-surface countering the warm pool. This does not exist. What is possible is a full basin Nino where the warmest values are in 3.4 and 3. But technically that falls under traditional because there is no La Nina-like cold pool.

This is what a true Modoki looks like. There is very little support for something like this.

http://i59.tinypic.com/2ze04xw.jpg

But remember 2009? It was traditional at first but became Modoki. BUT, this year, I agree with what you said, as the warm pool is moving eastward, TRADITIONAL!

The cold pool is shrinking rapidly and being denominated by the warm pool! You're really spot on in this upcoming El Nino though.

What is a good example of a full-basin El Nino?

[Ntxw]

But remember 2009? It was traditional at first but became traditional. This year, I agree with what you said, as the warm pool is moving eastward, TRADITIONAL!

El Nino can go through different types and strengths at different times in one fling. I think the term Modoki is overly used and really unimpressive. 2004 gave it the notoriety it didn't need IMO. All that was is one of the weakest Nino's that started very late and didn't play a big role early on. Strength of El Nino is more critical than what type it is if you asked me. Most El Nino's are modoki or end up as one at the end of their life especially when La Nina tries to kick in.