98W INVEST 140416 1200 9.5N 149.5E WPAC 15 1010Located southeast of guam and it seems to be slowly consolidating...
AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.5N 149.5E,
APPROXIMATELY 365 NM SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FORMATIVE, ALBEIT
FRAGMENTED, BANDING ALONG THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN FLANKS. AN ARC OF
DEEP CONVECTION IS ALSO EVIDENT ON A 161022Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS 05 DEGREES SOUTH
OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) EASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER, THE EIR LOOP ALSO SHOWS A GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION. NUMERIC MODELS DO NOT
PREDICT ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS
LOW.