ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
Blown Away
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10147
Joined: Wed May 26, 2004 6:17 am

Re:

#4261 Postby Blown Away » Sun Apr 27, 2014 7:03 pm

Alyono wrote:lets not lose sight of the elephant in the room that as usual, the models are totally busting to date


Can you explain how you see the models busting?
0 likes   
Hurricane Eye Experience: David 79, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05... EYE COMING MY WAY IN 2024…
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…

User avatar
Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 22786
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

Re: Re:

#4262 Postby Ntxw » Sun Apr 27, 2014 7:04 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:Another is 1986-87, which started in the summer but peaked in the summer of 87.

Granted, that was a very interesting El Nino.


This is one of the Nino's I have done very little reading for. Started summer 1986 and lasted all the way through early 1988. It's rarely mentioned, back to back moderate Nino's the second being borderline strong. We were in a perpetual Nino state for a good 19 months. The entire 1987 year saw ONI at 1C or higher. Very rarely do you see Nino's last that long at that strength, most back to backs (there are only a few) have at least one weak one, particularly the second one as residual effect. Most, including the big 3, don't last for more than 12-15 months.
0 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

  Help support Storm2K!
Help Support Storm2K

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 16143
Age: 27
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
Contact:

Re: Re:

#4263 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Apr 27, 2014 7:17 pm

Ntxw wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:Another is 1986-87, which started in the summer but peaked in the summer of 87.

Granted, that was a very interesting El Nino.


This is one of the Nino's I have done very little reading for. Started summer 1986 and lasted all the way through early 1988. It's rarely mentioned, back to back moderate Nino's the second being borderline strong. We were in a perpetual Nino state for a good 19 months. Very rarely do you see Nino's last that long at that strength, most back to backs (there are only a few) have at least one weak one, particularly the second one as residual effect. Most, including the big 3, don't last for more than 12-15 months.


The only other true back to back El Ninos were 76-77/77-78, 57-58/58-59, and 68-69/69-70. Granted, the data is limited and I think there was a another in the 20s. It is interesting to note that 2 of the 4 known back to back Ninos were in a cold -PDO era though.
0 likes   

User avatar
xtyphooncyclonex
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3861
Age: 23
Joined: Sat Dec 08, 2012 9:07 am
Location: Cebu City
Contact:

#4264 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sun Apr 27, 2014 8:12 pm

There is a rapidly developing system in the WPAC currently. Check out the topic.
0 likes   
REMINDER: My opinions that I, or any other NON Pro-Met in this forum, are unofficial. Please do not take my opinions as an official forecast and warning. I am NOT a meteorologist. Following my forecasts blindly may lead to false alarm, danger and risk if official forecasts from agencies are ignored.

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15981
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re:

#4265 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Apr 27, 2014 8:18 pm

xtyphooncyclonex wrote:There is a rapidly developing system in the WPAC currently. Check out the topic.

Yep.

Maybe the CFS will got its WWB forecast correct this time.
0 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant

User avatar
xtyphooncyclonex
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3861
Age: 23
Joined: Sat Dec 08, 2012 9:07 am
Location: Cebu City
Contact:

#4266 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sun Apr 27, 2014 8:24 pm

It intensified to a TS.
0 likes   
REMINDER: My opinions that I, or any other NON Pro-Met in this forum, are unofficial. Please do not take my opinions as an official forecast and warning. I am NOT a meteorologist. Following my forecasts blindly may lead to false alarm, danger and risk if official forecasts from agencies are ignored.

User avatar
xtyphooncyclonex
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3861
Age: 23
Joined: Sat Dec 08, 2012 9:07 am
Location: Cebu City
Contact:

#4267 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sun Apr 27, 2014 8:28 pm

Niño 1+2 significantly warmed up to +0.221°C.
0 likes   
REMINDER: My opinions that I, or any other NON Pro-Met in this forum, are unofficial. Please do not take my opinions as an official forecast and warning. I am NOT a meteorologist. Following my forecasts blindly may lead to false alarm, danger and risk if official forecasts from agencies are ignored.

User avatar
xtyphooncyclonex
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3861
Age: 23
Joined: Sat Dec 08, 2012 9:07 am
Location: Cebu City
Contact:

#4268 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sun Apr 27, 2014 8:49 pm

Could a 50 kt storm 1min sustained help enhance the WWB?
0 likes   
REMINDER: My opinions that I, or any other NON Pro-Met in this forum, are unofficial. Please do not take my opinions as an official forecast and warning. I am NOT a meteorologist. Following my forecasts blindly may lead to false alarm, danger and risk if official forecasts from agencies are ignored.

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15981
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

#4269 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Apr 27, 2014 9:16 pm

Image

Image

Image

Wow.
0 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15981
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re:

#4270 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Apr 27, 2014 9:29 pm

xtyphooncyclonex wrote:Could a 50 kt storm 1min sustained help enhance the WWB?

Typoon Isa developed from a disturbance in the monsoon trough near the Caroline Islands on April 12.

Perfect timing for Tropical storm Tapah.
0 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant

User avatar
xtyphooncyclonex
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3861
Age: 23
Joined: Sat Dec 08, 2012 9:07 am
Location: Cebu City
Contact:

#4271 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sun Apr 27, 2014 9:30 pm

There is now a WWB occurring in the WPAC. CFS got it right, not busting this time Alyono.
0 likes   
REMINDER: My opinions that I, or any other NON Pro-Met in this forum, are unofficial. Please do not take my opinions as an official forecast and warning. I am NOT a meteorologist. Following my forecasts blindly may lead to false alarm, danger and risk if official forecasts from agencies are ignored.

User avatar
xtyphooncyclonex
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3861
Age: 23
Joined: Sat Dec 08, 2012 9:07 am
Location: Cebu City
Contact:

Re: Re:

#4272 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sun Apr 27, 2014 9:42 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
xtyphooncyclonex wrote:Could a 50 kt storm 1min sustained help enhance the WWB?

Typoon Isa developed from a disturbance in the monsoon trough near the Caroline Islands on April 12.

Perfect timing for Tropical storm Tapah.

I wonder if Tapah can reach official typhoon intensity. There is a developing eye on the system. It could enhance that huge subsurface warm pool and cause massive warming thereafter.
0 likes   
REMINDER: My opinions that I, or any other NON Pro-Met in this forum, are unofficial. Please do not take my opinions as an official forecast and warning. I am NOT a meteorologist. Following my forecasts blindly may lead to false alarm, danger and risk if official forecasts from agencies are ignored.

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 16143
Age: 27
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
Contact:

Re: Re:

#4273 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Apr 27, 2014 9:44 pm

xtyphooncyclonex wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
xtyphooncyclonex wrote:Could a 50 kt storm 1min sustained help enhance the WWB?

Typoon Isa developed from a disturbance in the monsoon trough near the Caroline Islands on April 12.

Perfect timing for Tropical storm Tapah.

I wonder if Tapah can reach official typhoon intensity. There is a developing eye on the system. It could enhance that huge subsurface warm pool and cause massive warming thereafter.


Minimal typhoon status is still far away from the super typhoon Isa was.
0 likes   

User avatar
xtyphooncyclonex
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3861
Age: 23
Joined: Sat Dec 08, 2012 9:07 am
Location: Cebu City
Contact:

Re: Re:

#4274 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sun Apr 27, 2014 9:51 pm

According to the JTWC, Tapah rapidly intensified from a weak depression to a strong tropical storm. The JMA upgraded this only to a minimal TS as they release updates in a schedule. An eye has appeared on imagery less than 24 hours after development. This could largely enhance the development of the WWB. JTWC now forecasts a 75 knot typhoon.
Last edited by xtyphooncyclonex on Sun Apr 27, 2014 10:04 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
REMINDER: My opinions that I, or any other NON Pro-Met in this forum, are unofficial. Please do not take my opinions as an official forecast and warning. I am NOT a meteorologist. Following my forecasts blindly may lead to false alarm, danger and risk if official forecasts from agencies are ignored.

User avatar
Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 22786
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

Re: Re:

#4275 Postby Ntxw » Sun Apr 27, 2014 9:59 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:Minimal typhoon status is still far away from the super typhoon Isa was.


I have some questions as I don't fully understand, I know ISA is thrown around a lot for 1997. Wasn't ITA this year the same result? I know it was on the other side of the globe but why would be it a different result? Isa wasn't exactly that close to the equator. I'm asking because I don't fully understand these basins on the other side.

I mean, we had big WWB's without super typhoons in Feb and March that was as strong as any we've seen. 2002 had STY Itag but didn't result in a super Nino, or a resulting large WWB which came later in May. Is it a chicken or egg question? Is a STY a net result of the WWB or the WWB is a net result of the typhoon, I would doubt the later as in a larger scale they are small compared to other background forces. I do know they certainly can help.

Edit spellcheck: Mitag not itag :oops:
Last edited by Ntxw on Sun Apr 27, 2014 10:32 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.



  Help support Storm2K!

Help Support Storm2K


User avatar
xtyphooncyclonex
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3861
Age: 23
Joined: Sat Dec 08, 2012 9:07 am
Location: Cebu City
Contact:

#4276 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sun Apr 27, 2014 10:09 pm

Niño regions are gradually warming, with 1+2 warming the fastest, now at +0.282ºC or rounded to +0.3ºC! Niño 3 and 3.4 are at +0.4ºC and Niño 4 is at +0.6ºC.
0 likes   
REMINDER: My opinions that I, or any other NON Pro-Met in this forum, are unofficial. Please do not take my opinions as an official forecast and warning. I am NOT a meteorologist. Following my forecasts blindly may lead to false alarm, danger and risk if official forecasts from agencies are ignored.

euro6208

Re:

#4277 Postby euro6208 » Mon Apr 28, 2014 12:14 am

Kingarabian wrote:
Wow.


Love this graphic showing the warm pool moving across the wide pacific.
0 likes   

User avatar
xtyphooncyclonex
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3861
Age: 23
Joined: Sat Dec 08, 2012 9:07 am
Location: Cebu City
Contact:

Re: Re:

#4278 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Mon Apr 28, 2014 1:12 am

Ntxw wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:Minimal typhoon status is still far away from the super typhoon Isa was.


I have some questions as I don't fully understand, I know ISA is thrown around a lot for 1997. Wasn't ITA this year the same result? I know it was on the other side of the globe but why would be it a different result? Isa wasn't exactly that close to the equator. I'm asking because I don't fully understand these basins on the other side.

I mean, we had big WWB's without super typhoons in Feb and March that was as strong as any we've seen. 2002 had STY Itag but didn't result in a super Nino, or a resulting large WWB which came later in May. Is it a chicken or egg question? Is a STY a net result of the WWB or the WWB is a net result of the typhoon, I would doubt the later as in a larger scale they are small compared to other background forces. I do know they certainly can help.

Edit spellcheck: Mitag not itag :oops:

Probably because the Kelvin Wave at the time was not that strong, which resulted with a moderate Niño. The subsurface waters that time were not as warm as this year. Same thing happened in 2004, when super typhoon Sudal formed, it did not cause a massive WWB. That year had one of the weakest El Niños on record. :lol:
0 likes   
REMINDER: My opinions that I, or any other NON Pro-Met in this forum, are unofficial. Please do not take my opinions as an official forecast and warning. I am NOT a meteorologist. Following my forecasts blindly may lead to false alarm, danger and risk if official forecasts from agencies are ignored.

User avatar
Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 22786
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

#4279 Postby Ntxw » Mon Apr 28, 2014 7:54 am

It's going to be anywhere between 0.4 to 0.5C this week it looks from the graph updated this morning. Week centered Weds of last week is showing 0.4C. The most dramatic event the past few days has been 1+2, of course this region sees changes very quickly as we are witnessing but because most of last week it was cold, we won't see the full effects of it until next week's update.

Image

Image
0 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.



  Help support Storm2K!

Help Support Storm2K


User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145382
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ENSO Updates

#4280 Postby cycloneye » Mon Apr 28, 2014 9:11 am

Here is the CPC 4/28/14 text update. Nino 3.4 is up to +0.4C.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: afswo, Cpv17, cycloneye, Google Adsense [Bot], hohnywx, jaguars_22, Stratton23, TomballEd, USTropics and 49 guests