hurricanes1234 wrote:Who thinks it will become a hurricane, if it does form?
Not likely at all IMO for the CMC one, but you realize that the CMC and GFS are showing two different systems, right? The GFS one may have a chance, but it is IMO too early to tell.
Here's a CMC run from yesterday, though it's backed off.

New runs shows it much further west.

Still a bit all over the place in track. Likely phantom.
With that said, I believe in the GFS system. I'm seeing consistency to some degree now, and looks realistic, so I think it might or might not happen. The time frame looks right on target for the start of the season (3rd year in a row a storm formed around opening day if this happens). Track though may still be uncertain, but given it's still 16 days out, that is to be expected
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