Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
247 PM AST MON APR 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. SEVERAL UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE CLOSE TO
THE REGION TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS
NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST OF THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN AN EAST
SOUTHEAST WINDS FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED SO FAR THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND THE SURROUNDING WATERS AS A
GENERALLY FAIR AND STABLE WEATHER PATTERN PERSISTED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. BY 2 PM AST...THE DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL PUERTO RICO.
LIKE PREVIOUS DAYS...THE LIMITED AVAILABLE MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING...SEA BREEZE AND OTHER
LOCAL EFFECTS TO INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS
PARTS OF THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO
DURING THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
AMPLIFY NORTH OF THE REGION THIS EVENING...BUT NOT SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES IN THE PRESENT WEATHER PATTERN ARE EXPECTED. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER CUBA AND FLORIDA WILL PROPAGATE EASTWARD WHILE
AMPLIFY DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS FEATURE WILL PRODUCE AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THE GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST ONLY A MODEST
INCREASE IN MOISTURE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE.

&&

.AVIATION...CONT VFR AT TAF SITES THRU TUE WI SLGT CHC SHRA TJBQ.
ISOLD/SCT SHRA AND PSBL TSRA THIS AFT NW QUARTER OF MAINLAND PR BUT
FEW TO REACH COAST. OTW CLRG TONITE THEN CONVECTION SAME AREA TUE
AFT. WINDS BLO FL100 E-SE 5-15 KT THEN ABV FL150 WLY INCR WI HGT.

&&

.MARINE...RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WINDS/SEAS WILL CONTINUE THRU AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 89 77 86 / 0 0 0 0
STT 76 86 77 87 / 0 0 0 0

[cycloneye]

Good morning.Dry and warm weather will prevail today in PR and VI with only a few afternoon showers in the interior of PR.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
410 AM AST TUE APR 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS... A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA THU WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD FRI THROUGH SUN.
RIDGE EXPECTED TO COLLAPSE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY AHEAD
OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVR THE BAHAMAS.
THE LATEST CIRA LAYERED PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT SHOWS THAT THE
BULK OF THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS FOUND ALOFT IN THE 500-300 MB
LAYER WHILE THE ATMOSPHERE BELOW 500 MB REMAINS DRY. AM EXPECTING
A LULL IN ACTIVITY TODAY WHEN COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A VERY STRONG UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE
LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE SRN FL PENINSULA. THIS FEATURE IS
EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY NEXT 36 HRS AS IT RACES EWD POSSIBLY BECOMING
A CLOSED LOW NORTH OF PR WED NIGHT. THIS TROUGH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY A UNUSUALLY STRONG 90-KT 200 MB JET STREAK FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR THAT WILL PASS OVR THE MONA PASSAGE WED AFTERNOON PUTTING
THE LOCAL AREA UNDER STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ON LEFT EXIT
REGION OF JET STREAK THAT WILL ALSO BE INTERSECTING A MOIST AXIS
OVR WRN PR. THUS...AM EXPECTING BIG THUNDERSTORMS WED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING OVR WRN/SOUTHWEST PR AND THE MONA PASSAGE WITH SOME
HAIL GIVEN -10C AIR AT 500 MB AND 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES VALUES
THAT ARE 2SD BELOW NORMAL.

TROF AXIS WILL CROSS THE AREA THU MORNING WITH JET STREAK SHIFTING
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. IT DOES NOT APPEAR NOW THAT UPPER
LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE A SIGNIFICANT
DOWNWARD TREND IN AFTERNOON CONVECTION THU. T-STORMS WILL BECOME
MORE OF THE HEAVY RAIN VARIETY THAN SEVERE WX.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS RAPIDLY FRI THROUGH SUN WITH A SHARP
DOWNWARD TREND IN AREAL CVRG AND INTENSITY OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION.
IT TURNS HOT ONCE AGAIN SAT AND SUN WITH TEMPS IN THE 90S. FIRE
DANGER MAY ALSO INCREASE FRI AND SAT IF NOT ENOUGH RAIN FALLS WED
AND THU AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SOMEWHAT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. OVRNGHT...VARIABLE WIND 5-10 KT. AFTERNOON CONVECTION
POSSIBLE AGAIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PR BETWEEN
29/18Z-21. TJMZ MAY EXPERIENCE BRIEF MVFR CONDS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF PR. BY LATE MRNG INTO AFT...WIND E-SE 5-15 KT.

&&

.MARINE...STRONG/SEVERE T-STORMS EXPECTED WED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVR THE MONA PASSAGE. NORTH SWELLS EXPECTED FRI AND SAT
WITH HIGH SURF CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRI.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 77 87 77 / 0 0 10 40
STT 86 78 87 78 / 0 0 0 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
304 PM AST TUE APR 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A WEAK CUT-OFF LOW NORTH OF EASTERN CUBA AND
EAST OF GEORGIA WILL MOVE SOUTH SOUTHEAST TO ENHANCE A TROUGH OVER
PUERTO RICO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PUSH THE JET OVER THE LOCAL AREA
INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN ON
SUNDAY NIGHT.

AT MID LEVELS...A WEAK TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA ON
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FORM NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA AND
FORM A RIDGE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OVER
THE WEEKEND. WEAK GRADIENTS THEN PREVAIL UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BACK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WELL NORTH OF THE AREA
AND MOVES SOUTHEAST TO ENGULF MOST OF THE ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN. WEAK TROUGHING WILL BE SEEN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHALLOW SHOWERS HAVE FORMED IN THE NORTHWEST
INTERIOR FROM MOCA TO CIALES AND OROCOVIS. LITTLE MOVEMENT WAS
OBSERVED BUT SHOWERS WERE ALSO SHORT-LIVED...POSSIBLY LEAVING ONE
OR TWO TENTHS WHERE THEY WERE SPRINGING UP AND DYING. SHOWERS WILL
DIMINISH AS HEATING ENDS EARLY THIS EVENING AND THEN EXPECT VERY
LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY TONIGHT...THE GREAT MAJORITY OF WHICH WILL
BE CONFINED TO THE LOCAL WATERS. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
TOMORROW... ALTHOUGH NOT ALL MODELS AGREE...AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN PART INDUCED BY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO MOVE
PAST PUERTO RICO TO THE NORTHEAST WILL STALL OVER THE AREA AND
INCREASE MOISTURE LATE IN THE WEEKEND TO ABOVE THE 500 MB LEVEL.
UNTIL THEN MOISTURE WILL REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW 6 KFT WITH VERY
DRY MID- LEVELS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MERGES WITH THIS MOISTURE LATE IN THE UPCOMING WEEK.

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE REST OF THE
WEEK...BUT CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST THAT...AT LEAST FOR THE
GREATER SAN JUAN METRO AREA...TODAY WILL HAVE BEEN THE HOTTEST DAY
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. THICKNESSES REBOUND AFTER THURSDAY AND
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...AS WINDS RETURN TO
THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING BACK EVEN
WARMER TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
FCST PERIOD. ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PR UNTIL 29/22Z. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WESTERN AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PR AND TJMZ
MAY EXPERIENCE BRIEF MVFR CONDS. WIND E-SE AT 5-15 MPH SHIFTING E-NE
AFTER 30/06Z.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS ARE RELATIVELY TRANQUIL NOW...BUT WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE ON THURSDAY...PEAKING ON FRIDAY NIGHT. CURRENTLY EXPECT 5
TO 6 FOOT SWELL...BUT 7 FOOT SEAS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
FRIDAY AND WILL MONITOR CLOSELY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 87 77 85 / 0 10 40 40
STT 78 87 78 86 / 0 0 40 40

[cycloneye]

Good morning. A few showers will move thru PR and VI today.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
505 AM AST WED APR 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC
WILL MOVE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN
WHILE AMPLIFYING. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH MOVES AWAY FROM
THE LOCAL AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...RIDGE PATTERN WILL THEN
BUILD FROM THE WEST AND HOLD THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS OVERNIGHT. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED
ACROSS NORTHEAST PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS SAINT THOMAS/SAINT JOHN...
BUT WITH MINIMAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS SO FAR. TEMPERATURES WERE
IN THE UPPER 70S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WITH ITS AXIS REACHING THE LOCAL AREA
THURSDAY MORNING. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES CLOSER TO THE LOCAL AREA
THROUGH THE DAY...ASSOCIATED JET STREAK AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS ALONG WITH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DUE TO INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...LOCAL
EFFECTS AND DIURNAL HEATING WILL RESULT IN THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF
THEM LOCALLY STRONG...DEVELOPING ACROSS WEST AND SOUTHWEST PUERTO
RICO IN THE AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE.

TROUGH AXIS WILL CROSS THE AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH JET
STREAK SHIFTING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...THERE WILL
BE ENOUGH INFLUENCE IN ORDER TO INTERACT WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE
AND LOCAL EFFECTS TO PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF CLOUDINESS AND
SHOWERS ON THURSDAY. UNDER THE PREVAILING WIND FLOW...EXPECT PASSING
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS
THURSDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON CONVECTION WHICH WILL BE
MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS WEST AND SOUTHWEST PUERTO RICO.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS RAPIDLY FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A
SHARP DOWNWARD TREND IN AREAL CVRG AND INTENSITY OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN COLLAPSE NEXT TUESDAY
AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES OVERNIGHT...
IN LIGHT VARIABLE WIND. SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WEST AND SOUTH SECTIONS OF PR BTWN
30/16-21Z. AS A RESULT...TJMZ AND TJPS MAY EXPERIENCE PDS OF MVFR
CONDS. IN ADDITION MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE LIKELY BTWN
30/17-21Z. BY LATE MRNG INTO EARLY AFT...LLVL WIND E-NE AT 5-15
MPH BELOW FL100.

&&

.MARINE...TRANQUIL SEAS WILL CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE
EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS NORTHERLY SWELLS ARRIVE ACROSS
THE LOCAL WATERS.

&&

.CLIMATE...APRIL 2014 WILL END AS THE WARMEST APRIL ON RECORD WITH
AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 82.3F. THIS BROKE THE OLD RECORD OF
81.8F SET BACK IN APRIL 1984.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 77 85 77 / 20 40 40 30
STT 87 78 86 78 / 20 40 40 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
300 PM AST WED APR 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...ONLY A THIN WISP OF CIRRUS MOVING OVER MONA PASSAGE
IDENTIFIES A JET STREAK THE GFS SHOWS APPROACHING SOUTH OF DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC. BUT THE RIGHT EXIT REGION OF THIS FEATURE IS COMING AND
HAS PROBABLY ENHANCED CONVECTION ONGOING FOR SOUTHWEST PR. THE CELLS
ARE MOVING LITTLE AND FLOODING WOULD BECOME A SIGNIFICANT ISSUE IF
THEY PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...FOR THE
TIME BEING THE ACTIVITY HAS GREATLY DECREASED DUE TO MUCH COOLER
AIR THE RAIN HAS DEPOSITED ON THE SOILS UNDERNEATH.

SIGNIFICANT DYNAMIC LIFT THAT WE HAVE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ABSENT
IN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...BUT THE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN THROUGH AT
LEAST SATURDAY WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS
OVER WEST PR. MUCH DRYING TO ARRIVE FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY AS THE UPPER
RIDGE AGAIN SETTLES OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT AT TJMZ
AND TJPS WERE MVFR CONDITIONS WITH VCTS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE
LIKELY UNTIL 30/22Z. E-NE LOW LEVEL WINDS AT 10 TO 20 KT DECREASING
OVERNIGHT AT LESS THAN 10 KT.

&&

.MARINE...FORECAST ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WIND
THOUGH A MODERATE SWELL WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT. BUOYS
41046 AND 41047 ARE JUST BEGINNING TO INCREASE ATTM BUT SWELL
DIRECTION IS NORTH-NORTHEAST...SHOULD REACH 41043 BY MIDNIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 85 77 87 / 40 40 30 30
STT 78 86 78 87 / 40 40 30 30

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Another mainly dry and warm day is expected for PR and VI on this Thursday.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
406 AM AST THU MAY 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATER
TODAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD SHARPLY FRI THRU SUN THEN
ERODE BY TUE AS DEEP TROF AMPLIFIES OVR THE WRN ATLC.


&&

.DISCUSSION...SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROF WITH AXIS JUST NORTH OF PR
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING WITH UPPER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ESTABLISHING OVR THE AREA. FOR TODAY...IT IS KINDA OF
A TOSSUP WHETHER THE UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT CAN OFFSET THE
VERY COOL TEMPS ALOFT AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. MODELS
STILL SEEM PRETTY AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING AFTERNOON CONVECTION
OVR WRN PR. DESPITE NO SEVERE WX REPORTS YDAY...MID LEVEL COOL
POOL OVERHEAD STILL SUGGESTS RISK OF SOME HAIL THIS AFTERNOON.

SHARP HEIGHT RISES INDICATED FRI THROUGH SUN UNDER BUILDING UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A NOTICEABLE DOWNWARD TURN IN
AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF CONVECTION AND ALSO A NOTICEABLE
WARMING TREND WITH TEMPS GETTING BACK INTO THE 90S AND PROBABLY MID
90S BY MON. AM REALLY SKEPTICAL OF THE MODELS MAINTAINING AND EVEN
INCREASING THE MOISTURE FRI THROUGH SAT GIVEN STRONGLY UPPER
CONVERGENT FLOW.

RIDGE COLLAPSES EARLY NEXT WEEK AS TROF DEEPENS ACROSS THE WRN
ATLC WEAKENING THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION PROMOTING MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. WHILE WE ARE LIKELY TO SEE A WETTER PERIOD MID TO LATE
NEXT WEEK...LATEST GEFS IS NOT AS BULLISH WITH RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS AS 24 HRS AGO. SO THE ODDS OF HAVING A SIG RAINFALL
EVENT OF CUTTING DOWN ON THE BIG RAINFALL DEFICITS APPEAR TO BE
DIMINISHING.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES OVERNIGHT.
WINDS...GENERALLY EASTERLY AT 3-10 KTS. SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PR BTWN
01/17-21Z. AS A RESULT...MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS
WESTERN INTERIOR AS WELL AS BRIEF MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE AT TJMZ. BY
LATE MRNG TO EARLY AFT...MOSTLY EASTERLY WINDS OF 5-15 KTS WITH
LOCALIZED GUSTS.


&&

.MARINE...NORTH SWELLS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATER TODAY WITH SEAS
BUILDING 6 TO 8 FT OFFSHORE ATLC WATERS. WILL ISSUE SCA FOR AMZ710
WITH 430 AM CWF ISSUANCE.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SOUTH COAST MISSED MOST OF THE RAIN YDAY AND THE
STEERING FLOW TODAY WILL BE UNFAVORABLE TO DRIVE ANY CONVECTION TO
THAT AREA TODAY. WITH BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...EXPECT FIRE
DANGER TO INCREASE NEXT SVRL DAYS DEPENDING ON HOW FAST MOISTURE
ERODES. WINDS LOOK LIKE THEY COULD BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR RED FLAG
FRI AND SAT WITH A DIMINISHING TREND SUN AND MON. FUEL LOADING IS
INCREDIBLY HIGH AT VIEQUES AND AT CABO ROJO RIGHT NOW. RED FLAG
CONDITIONS DEFINITELY NOT OUT THE QUESTION THIS WEEKEND DESPITE
UNFAVORABLE TIME OF THE YEAR CLIMATOLOGICALLY SPEAKING.


&&

.CLIMATE...APRIL 2014 ENDED AS THE WARMEST APRIL ON RECORD AT THE
SJU LMM INTL ARPT WITH AN AVG TEMP OF 82.4F DEGS. THE PREVIOUS
WARMEST APRIL WAS 1984 WITH AN AVG TEMP OF 81.8F DEGS. ALSO...SECOND
WARMEST START TO A YEAR ON RECORD WITH AN AVG TEMP OF 80.5F ONLY
BEHIND 1983.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 79 87 79 / 20 10 20 10
STT 89 78 88 78 / 20 10 10 20

[cycloneye]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
245 PM AST THU MAY 1 2014

PRC081-083-131-141-011945-
LARES PR-UTUADO PR-SAN SEBASTIAN PR-LAS MARIAS PR-
245 PM AST THU MAY 1 2014

AT 240 PM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER LARES...MOVING NEARLY STATIONARY. THIS
THUNDERSTORM IS PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...LIGHTNING AND IS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLE SMALL HAIL.

MOTORISTS AND PERSONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS ARE ADVISED TO
MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER MEDIA FOR FURTHER UPDATES OR
POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

$$

DS

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
216 PM AST THU MAY 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...RIDGE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD FROM THE WEST...
AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE LOCAL
AREA. SURFACE RIDGE WELL NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA WILL SHIFT EAST
SOUTHEAST TO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FRIDAY AND INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...MAINTAINING A MODERATE TRADE WIND FLOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY...WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
NOTED ACROSS NW PUERTO RICO. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE UPPER 80S AT
LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH A MODERATE EASTERLY WIND FLOW.

RIDGE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD FROM THE WEST...AS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA. THIS FEATURE
WILL BRING A SHARP DOWNWARD TREND IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION. THEREFORE...EXPECT A GENERALLY FAIR AND
MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FRIDAY
THROUGH MONDAY...WITH SOME LATE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING BRIEF
PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS AND THE AFOREMENTIONED DIURNALLY
INDUCED CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO. AS SURFACE RIDGE TO THE NORTH SHIFTS EAST
SOUTHEAST TO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...LOCAL WIND PATTERN WILL BECOME
MORE EAST SOUTHEAST... BRINGING ONCE AGAIN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE NORTH COASTAL AREAS.

RIDGE ALOFT WILL COLLAPSE ON TUESDAY...AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL RESULT
IN BETTER CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS EACH DAY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
FCST PERIOD. HOWEVER...AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE INTERIOR AND
WEST SECTIONS OF PR WILL RESULT IN MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND BRIEF
MVFR CONDITIONS OVER TJMZ AND TJBQ UNTIL AT LEAST 01/22Z. LOW LEVEL
EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 10-15 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...NORTH SWELLS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE THIS EVENING WITH SEAS
BUILDING 6 TO 7 FT ACROSS THE OFF SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR THESE WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 88 79 88 / 20 20 20 20
STT 78 86 78 86 / 20 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Dry weather will prevail today in PR and VI.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
425 AM AST FRI MAY 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY LEADING TO A WARMING AND DRYING TREND.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ESTABLISH OVR THE WRN ATLC INTO THE
GREATER ANTILLES MID NEXT WEEK WITH BETTER RAIN OPPORTUNITIES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT
WARMING STARTING TODAY AND A DOWNWARD TREND IN CONVECTION
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. LATEST 0720Z GOES SOUNDER DATA
INDICATE SIG DRYING HAS OCCURRED SINCE YESTERDAY BETWEEN 700-300 MB
WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A NOTABLE DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER...AREAL
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF CONVECTION TODAY. FURTHER DRYING
EXPECTED SUN THROUGH TUE AS SUBSIDENCE INVERSION STRENGTHENS.

RIDGE BEGINS TO ERODE MON AS DEEP TROF AMPLIFIES OVR THE WRN ATLC
INTO THE GREATER ANTILLES WITH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WEAKENING
LEADING TO MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND MORE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT BETTER OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN MIDDLE TO LATTER
PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING
AREA FRIDAY MORNING. AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE NW QUADRANT OF PR
WILL RESULT IN MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN
AND AROUND TJBQ STARTING AT ABOUT 02/18Z TO 02/22Z. SFC WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 10-20 KT AND GUSTY AFTER 02/13 FROM THE EAST WITH SEA
BREEZE VARIATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...NNE SWELLS BEGINNING TO REACH THE ATLC COASTAL WATERS
NOW AND WILL BUILD TO 6-7 FT AT 14-15 SECS USING SWELL DECAY FROM
BUOY 41043. IT APPEARS MODELS UNDERESTIMATING SWELL PERIOD BY
ABOUT 1-2 SECS AT THAT BUOY. SURF CONDITIONS WILL BE BORDERLINE
HIGH SURF ADVZY CRITERIA BUT IT IS A WEEKEND AND WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL BE EXCELLENT FOR GOING TO THE BEACH. SO WENT AHEAD
AND ISSUED A HIGH SURF ADVZY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DESPITE UPPER TROUGH OVERHEAD YDAY...FIRE WX
CONDITIONS WERE NEAR RED FLAG ON THE SOUTH COAST. CURRENT RH`S AT
CABO ROJO ARE RUNNING AS MUCH AS 17% LOWER THAN AT THIS SAME TIME
YESTERDAY. MODELS DON`T SHOW ANY APPRECIABLE CHANGE IN AVAILABLE
MOISTURE TODAY BUT INDICATE 2-3F DEG WARMING AT THE SFC WHICH
SHOULD BRING RH`S EASILY INTO RED FLAG TERRITORY. UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE MORE FVRBL FOR RED FLAG WITH UPPER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER MID-UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT
WITH DIMINISHED CLOUD COVER. 20-FOOT WINDS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THU
WITH SPEEDS 15 TO 20 MPH. MORE IMPORTANTLY...FUELS/FUEL LOADING AT
CABO ROJO ARE EXTREMELY DRY/HIGH WITH BOTH ENERGY RELEASE
COMPONENT (ERC) AND KBDI AT THE 97TH PERCENTILE USING A
CLIMATOLOGY SINCE 2004. THE KBDI CURRENTLY STANDS AT 702 THE
HIGHEST IT HAS BEEN SO FAR IN 2014 WITH ONLY 1.56 INCHES OF RAIN
SO FAR THIS YEAR AND ZERO IN THE LAST TWO WEEKS.

VIEQUES AND ST. CROIX ALSO HAVE HIGH FIRE DANGER BUT NOT AS
EXTREME AS THE SOUTH COAST. RH`S WILL BE MORE MARGINAL THERE FOR
RFW.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 78 88 78 / 20 10 10 20
STT 86 78 87 78 / 10 30 30 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
212 PM AST FRI MAY 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...RIDGE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD FROM THE WEST...AS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA.
SURFACE RIDGE TO THE NORTH WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...MAINTAINING A MODERATE TRADE WIND
FLOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY WITH MINIMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY SO FAR.
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH
A MODERATE SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW.

RIDGE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD FROM THE WEST...AS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA. THIS FEATURE
WILL BRING A SHARP DOWNWARD TREND IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION EACH DAY. THEREFORE...EXPECT A GENERALLY
FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
THROUGH MONDAY...WITH ISOLATED LATE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING
BRIEF PASSING ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS AND A FEW DIURNALLY INDUCED
SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO. AS SURFACE RIDGE TO THE NORTH SHIFTS EAST TO THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC...LOCAL WIND PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL FROM THE
SOUTHEAST...MAINTAINING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG THE NORTH
COASTAL AREAS.

RIDGE BEGINS TO ERODE MONDAY AS DEEP TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE GREATER ANTILLES WITH SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION WEAKENING. THIS WILL LEAD TO MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
MORE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS...RESULTING IN BETTER OPPORTUNITIES
FOR RAIN MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS AT ALL TAF SITES. HOWEVER...MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS AND BRIEF MVFR CONDS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PR DUE TO
AFTERNOON CONVECTION...AFFECTING MAINLY TJMZ AND TJBQ UNTIL 02/22Z.
EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS 15-20 KT FROM THE SFC UP TO 5 KFT. SEA BREEZE
VARIATIONS AT COASTAL LOCATIONS.

&&

.MARINE....EXPECT SEAS OF 3 TO 7 FEET IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND
2 TO 6 IN THE CARIBBEAN WATERS...WITH WINDS UP TO 18 KNOTS. A
MODERATE NORTHERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE ATLANTIC
WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS WITH A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR
THE ATLANTIC EXPOSED COASTLINES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 88 78 88 / 10 10 20 20
STT 78 87 78 86 / 30 30 20 20

[cycloneye]

Good morning.Dry and warm weather will prevail today in PR and VI.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
423 AM AST SAT MAY 3 2014

.DISCUSSION...STRONG AND DEEP RIDGE EXTENDING TOWARDS NORTHEAST
WILL CONTINUE ADVECTING RELATIVELY WARM AND DRY AIR ACROSS PR/USVI
THIS WEEKEND. PROBABLY TOO STABLE AND DRY ALOFT FOR THUNDER ANYWHERE
BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AGAIN
OVER NORTHWEST PR. THEN TOO DRY FOR MORE THAN ISOLATED ON MON.

CONDITIONS BEGIN TO CHANGE LATE TUE AND ESPECIALLY WED/THU AS AN
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM NORTHWEST AND BRINGS BETTER MOISTURE
WITH IT. MODELS KEEP IT IN VICINITY THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOONS.

BOTH 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF CLOSE A LOW OFF OVER PR BY FRI NIGHT
AND SAT MORNING WITH WHAT WOULD BE 500 MB HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES
VERY CLOSE TO 30 YEAR RECORD LOWS. GIVEN THAT MODELS ARE SO SUSPECT
7 DAYS OUT IT MAY NOT MEAN MUCH BUT IS INTERESTING THAT THESE MODELS
AGREE SO WELL AND THEIR ENSEMBLES ALSO AGREE. SIGNIFICANCE OF THIS
IS NOT CLEAR EXCEPT TO INCREASE RAIN PROBABILITY AND CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IF IT PERSISTS.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY CONTINUES IN EFFECT TODAY. BUOYS 41043 AND
41046 REMAIN AROUND 7 FEET WHICH WILL POUND THE BEACHES THROUGH
TODAY WITH 9-12 FT BREAKERS.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA. AN AREA OF LLVL MOISTURE WILL AFFECT THE NORTHERN USVI
WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHRA. AFT 03/17Z AREAS OF
MTN OBSCURATIONS IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL PR WITH SHRA IN NW PUERTO
RICO. LLVL WINDS EAST SOUTHEAST 5 TO 15 KT WITH SEA BREEZE
VARIATIONS...AND GUSTY AFTER 03/14Z...UP TO 25 KT...AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS CONTINUE AROUND 7 FT ON ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY SO
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. MAX WINDS TO BE 17 KNOTS
BOTH NORTH AND SOUTH OF PR BUT A LITTLE WEAKER NEAR USVI.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 77 88 76 / 10 20 20 10
STT 86 76 88 78 / 30 20 20 10

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
317 PM AST SAT MAY 3 2014

.SYNOPSIS...RIDGE ALOFT WILL ERODE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS DEEP TROUGH
AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE GREATER ANTILLES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
IN THE MORNING...BECOMING VARIABLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS CENTRAL AND WEST PUERTO RICO. SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS WERE
OBSERVED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AS WELL AS CENTRAL AND WEST
PUERTO RICO. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOW 90S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS
WITH A MODERATE SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW.

A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY...AS RIDGE ALOFT CONTINUES
TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...UNDER THE PREVAILING
EAST SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW...EXPECT A FEW LATE EVENING AND EARLY
MORNING BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS...FOLLOWED BY
DIURNALLY INDUCED SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE...
ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. AS
SURFACE RIDGE TO THE NORTH SHIFTS FURTHER EAST...LOCAL WIND PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL FROM THE SOUTHEAST...MAINTAINING ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG THE NORTH COASTAL AREAS.

RIDGE BEGINS TO ERODE TUESDAY AS DEEP TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE GREATER ANTILLES WITH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
WEAKENING. THIS WILL LEAD TO GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND PRETTY
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS. AS A RESULT...EXPECT BETTER OPPORTUNITIES FOR
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS AT ALL TAF SITES. HOWEVER...MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
AND BRIEF MVFR CONDS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PR DUE TO AFTERNOON CONVECTION...
AFFECTING MAINLY TJMZ AND TJBQ UNTIL 03/22Z. MAINLY EAST WINDS
10-20 KT FROM THE SFC UP TO 5 KFT WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AT
COASTAL LOCATIONS...LIGHTER LAND BREEZE WILL ESTABLISH DURING THE
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...EXPECT SEAS OF 3 TO 7 FEET IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND SUBSIDING...
WITH WINDS UP TO 18 KNOTS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS TIL 9 PM AST...WITH A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN
EFFECT FOR THE ATLANTIC EXPOSED COASTLINES TIL 6 PM AST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 88 76 88 / 20 20 10 20
STT 78 86 76 86 / 20 20 10 20

[Gustywind]

Hi Cycloneye, glad to see you there . Thanks for posting these daily weather forecasts.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Mainly dry weather will prevail today in PR and VI with only some afternoon showers in the interior of PR.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
354 AM AST SUN MAY 4 2014

.DISCUSSION...LONGWAVE PATTERN IS PROGRESSIVE AND UPPER TROUGH IS
FINALLY MOVING INTO WESTERN ATLANTIC...LEADING TO DEMISE OF THE
RIDGE NORTHEAST OF LEEWARDS AND SHOVING IT WELL INTO CENTRAL
ATLANTIC. SO THE ANTICIPATED TROUGH IS MOVING EAST OF FL AND
GFS/ECWMF REMAIN ON TRACK IN PUSHING A DIGGING TROUGH OVER PR/USVI
BY LATE FRI/EARLY SAT WITH EXTREMELY LOW 500 MB HEIGHTS/TEMPS.

DRIER AIR (ABOUT 1.25 INCHES PRECIPITABLE WATER) IS CURRENTLY MOVING
WEST AND HAS ARRIVED AT NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND NEAR ST.
THOMAS ACCORDING TO MIMIC/TPW. SHALLOW/ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN IN
AREA AND EXPECT THEM TO STAY ISOLATED AT BEST TODAY...EXCEPT FOR
NORTHWEST PR IN AFTERNOON WHERE THE DRYING WILL BE LEAST AND
MAXIMUM HEATING WILL OCCUR. LOOKS TOO STABLE FOR THUNDER THOUGH.

DYNAMIC LIFT AND MOISTURE APPEARS BEST ON THU SO FAR BUT COLD
UPPER LEVELS WILL HELP GENERATE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FRI/SAT TOO.
NO PROBLEMATIC RAIN APPEAR LIKELY ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA WITH ONLY VCSH ACROSS TNCM AND TKPK. AFT 04/17Z AREAS OF
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL PR WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
SHRA POSSIBLE. CLEARING EXPECTED AFTER 04/22Z. LATEST TJSJ SOUNDING
INDICATED AN EAST TO EAST SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW UP TO 15 KNOTS ALL THE
WAY FROM THE SURFACE TO AROUND 25K FEET...BECOMING NORTHERLY AND
STRONGER ALOFT.

&&

.MARINE...SWELLS WILL CONTINUE DECREASING TODAY. SURFACE RIDGE HAS
MIGRATED FARTHER INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...LEAVING GENTLE TO
MODERATE TRADES LOCALLY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 77 85 77 / 20 10 20 20
STT 85 76 85 77 / 20 10 20 20

[cycloneye]

Hi Cycloneye, glad to see you there . Thanks for posting these daily weather forecasts.

Glad to see you after a long absence.

[Gustywind]

Hi Cycloneye, glad to see you there . Thanks for posting these daily weather forecasts.

Glad to see you after a long absence.

Yeah, thanks amigo de corazon! I was a bit busy but i will never forget my friends as Cycloneye, " el talento de la casa", tiene sabor , Llego el sabor como le dice Oscar D'Leon con José-Alberto "El Canario"; oyé lo bien... : baila!!!!!!! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pUX0HxiHhrc

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
244 PM AST SUN MAY 4 2014

.SYNOPSIS...RIDGE ALOFT WILL SLOWLY ERODE OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS OR
SO...AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
INTO THE GREATER ANTILLES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
IN THE MORNING...BECOMING VARIABLY CLOUDY IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WEST PUERTO RICO. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WERE OBSERVED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE ISLAND. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOW
90S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS.

A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY...AS RIDGE ALOFT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST
AREA. HOWEVER...UNDER THE PREVAILING EAST SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW...
EXPECT A FEW LATE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS
ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS...FOLLOWED BY DIURNALLY INDUCED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ACROSS THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND WEST SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO.

RIDGE BEGINS TO ERODE TUESDAY AS DEEP TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE GREATER ANTILLES. THIS WILL LEAD TO GOOD
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND PRETTY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. AS A RESULT...EXPECT MUCH BETTER OPPORTUNITIES FOR
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
BEST DYNAMIC LIFT AND MOISTURE ON THURSDAY. AREAL COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE BY THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AS TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA.
-SHRA WILL MOVE OUT OF TJBQ AND TJMZ FLYING AREA BY 04/20Z.
CLEARING EXPECTED AFTER 04/22Z. AN EAST TO EAST SOUTHEAST WIND
FLOW WILL CONTINUE UP TO 10 KNOTS FROM SFC TO AROUND 25K FEET.

&&

.MARINE...SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE ACROSS THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC WATERS. SEAS BELOW 5 FEET AND WIND UP TO 16 KNOTS.
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 87 77 87 / 20 20 20 20
STT 77 88 77 88 / 20 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

Good morning.Good weather will prevail today in PR and VI.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
424 AM AST MON MAY 5 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC WILL
AMPLIFY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. AS
THIS HAPPENS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO
ERODE. THIS SCENARIO WILL PROMOTE MOISTURE ADVECTION AND INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED OVERNIGHT AND
SO FAR THIS MORNING ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND THE SURROUNDING
WATERS AS A FAIR AND STABLE WEATHER PATTERN PERSISTED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THE DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS...BUT LIMITED SHOWER
ACTIVITY...IF ANY...WAS DETECTED OVER LAND AREAS SO FAR THIS
MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO
MAINTAIN A FAIR WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY AND
TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THE LIMITED AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL ISLANDS EFFECTS...TO INDUCE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
WESTERN AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO LATE IN THE MORNING AND
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. UNDER THE PREVAILING
EAST SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW...THE MOST AFFECTED AREAS WILL BE THE
NORTHWEST PART OF PUERTO RICO.

UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO ERODE LATE TUESDAY AS DEEP TROUGH AMPLIFIES
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. THIS WILL
LEAD TO GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND PRETTY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AS A RESULT...EXPECT MUCH BETTER
OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH BEST DYNAMIC LIFT AND MOISTURE ON THURSDAY.
AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE
BY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE LOCAL
ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE LOCAL TERMINALS
UNTIL 05/16Z. SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND POSSIBLY
AFFECT THE VICINITY OF TJPS...TJBQ...AND TJMZ AFTER 05/16Z. BECAUSE
OF VERY LIGHT WINDS THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT MOTION OF THE
DEVELOPED SHRA/TSRA THEREFORE VCSH/VCTS ARE IN TAF FOR THE LIKELY
TERMINALS TO BE AFFECTED. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT BECOMING E-SE AFTER 05/13Z WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL DIMINISH IN ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE
SOMEWHAT AS WELL. EXPECT SEAS OF 3 FEET OR LESS BY
TUESDAY...EARLIER IN PROTECTED WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 74 84 74 / 20 20 20 30
STT 85 76 86 76 / 20 20 20 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
308 PM AST MON MAY 5 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EXITING THE FL PENINSULA WILL
AMPLIFY OVR THE NEXT SVRL DAYS FORMING A CLOSED LOW NORTH OF PR BY FRI.
THIS FEATURE WILL MEANDER NE OF THE AREA THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK
WHERE IT WILL GRADUALLY FILL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE FVRBL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES AS
HEIGHTS FALL AND MID LEVEL TEMPS COOL DOWN AS TROF OVR THE SW ATLC
DEEPENS AND EVOLVES INTO A CLOSED LOW NORTH OF PR BY FRI. AS
CONVECTION BECOMES DEEPER IT WILL BE STEERED BY THE 0-6KM WINDS
WITH STEERING CURRENTS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED ON WED FROM THE SSW
FAVORING CONVECTION OVR NORTHEAST PR WED AND ERN
PR...CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND USVI THU AND SRN PR ON FRI.

TROF AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA SAT WITH UPPER LOW GRADUALLY
FILLING ACCORDING TO THE LATEST 12Z GEFS MEAN ALTHOUGH SPAGHETTI
PLOT INDICATES UPPER LOW COULD MEANDER FARTHER WEST OVR THE MONA
PASSAGE AS SUGGESTED BY THE 00Z ECMWF AND SOME GEFS MEMBERS. THIS
ALTERNATE SCENARIO WOULD RESULT IN A MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED WX AND MORE RAINFALL. USING THE 12Z GEFS MEAN AS THE
MOST LIKELY SCENARIO THE MOST ACTIVE WX SHOULD OCCUR ON THU WITH
THE WORST CONDITIONS OVR THE USVI. THE LATEST TREND ALSO SUGGESTS
LESSER RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS FOR MAINLAND PR THAN IN PREVIOUS
RUNS. ALSO...CUTOFF LOWS ARE NOTORIOUS FOR BEING BIG SEVERE WX
PRODUCERS AND H5 TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY COLD FOR THIS TIME
OF THE YEAR(-11C) SO HAIL AND STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO A POSSIBILITY.
WEATHER GRADUALLY BEGINS TO IMPROVE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS TROF FILLS
AND PULLS AWAY AND HEIGHTS RISE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD...EXCEPT THROUGH 05/21Z WHERE VCTS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR TJBQ AND
TJSJ. LLVL WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE BELOW FL200.


&&

.MARINE...LIGHT WINDS TODAY THROUGH WED WITH SEAS 2-3 FT.
WINDS STRENGTHEN THU AND ON AS HIGH PRES BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA.
DEVELOPING UPPER LOW NORTH OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN INCLEMENT
OVR THE REGION WED-SAT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY
OVR ATLC COASTAL WATERS. FREQ LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAINFALL AND EVEN
HAIL WILL BECOME MAIN HAZARDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 85 78 84 / 0 20 0 50
STT 77 86 77 86 / 0 0 0 10

[cycloneye]

Good morning.Afternoon showers will fall in PR today as a trough moves to the north of the islands.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
548 AM AST TUE MAY 6 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
AMPLIFY ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A
CLOSE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DEVELOP JUST TO THE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO
BY FRIDAY. THESE FEATURES WILL PROMOTE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED OVERNIGHT AND
SO FAR THIS MORNING ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND THE SURROUNDING
WATERS. HOWEVER...THE DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN COASTAL WATERS...BUT LIMITED
SHOWER ACTIVITY...IF ANY...WAS DETECTED OVER LAND AREAS SO FAR THIS
MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION WILL ERODE RAPIDLY
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
AMPLIFY ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL
ISLANDS EFFECTS...TO INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO LATE THIS MORNING...DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. UNDER THE PREVAILING EAST SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW...THE
MOST AFFECTED AREAS WILL BE THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO.

UPPER RIDGE WILL ERODE RAPIDLY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS A DEEP
TROUGH AMPLIFIES FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN. THIS WILL LEAD TO GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND PRETTY
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE SEVERAL DAYS.
AS A RESULT...EXPECT MUCH BETTER OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION BY FRIDAY.
THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER CLOSE TO THE REGION DURING THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR MOST
OF THE LOCAL TERMINALS. DEVELOPING SHRA/TSRA MAY AFFECT TJBQ AND THE
VICINITY OF TJSJ AND TJMZ AFTER 06/17Z. THIS SHARA/TSRA ACTIVITY MAY
CAUSE MVFR CONDS AS WELL AS MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...THEN BECOMING FROM THE SOUTHEAST
AFTER 06/13Z BUT HEAVILY INFLUENCED BY THE SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT WINDS TODAY THROUGH WED WITH SEAS 2-3 FT. WINDS
STRENGTHEN THU AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA.
DEVELOPING UPPER LOW NORTH OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN INSTABILITY
OVR THE REGION WED-SAT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 75 82 74 / 30 0 50 40
STT 86 76 85 75 / 10 0 10 40