Texas Spring-2014

[aggiecutter]

HRRR says storms for the Austin area this afternoon:

[weatherdude1108]

This just in. Keep an eye out today. Rain is nice.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 134
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1040 AM CDT FRI MAY 9 2014

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 134 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

TXC013-019-021-029-031-053-055-091-123-127-137-149-163-171-177-
187-209-255-259-265-271-285-287-299-323-325-385-453-463-491-493-
507-100000-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0134.140509T1540Z-140510T0000Z/

TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ATASCOSA BANDERA BASTROP
BEXAR BLANCO BURNET
CALDWELL COMAL DEWITT
DIMMIT EDWARDS FAYETTE
FRIO GILLESPIE GONZALES
GUADALUPE HAYS KARNES
KENDALL KERR KINNEY
LAVACA LEE LLANO
MAVERICK MEDINA REAL
TRAVIS UVALDE WILLIAMSON
WILSON ZAVALA

[gboudx]

From jeff:

Radar starting to light up as short wave lift and clearing skies erode mid level capping inversion.

SPC has just issued a new Severe Thunderstorm Watch for SC and C TX effective until 700pm (see watch outline below).

Radar shows a couple of well defined supercells, one WNW of San Antonio, and the other about to cross the Rio Grande south of Del Rio. Air mass over SC and SE TX is becoming increasingly unstable with surface heating with instability values pushing 2500-3000 J/kg. Recent radar trends north of Houston show scattered showers attempting to develop along some sort of possible boundary from overnight convection to the north. Storm motions have been really slow in in this region and flash flooding is ongoing around the Lufkin area currently due to high rainfall rates. Will need to keep a close eye on development along this boundary and potential for slow storm motions this afternoon.

Further southward shortwave induced convection over SW TX should continue to grow upscale into cluster/MCS as downstream air mass destabilizes. Not sure any of the models are handling this well especially given the amount of sun the area is seeing. Will need to watch things closely over the next few hours for possible inclusion of severe weather risks across all of SE TX this afternoon and evening. I am very tempted to go with higher rain chances this afternoon based on radar trends, but we have been burned so many times recently…

[horselattitudesfarm]

5.52 inches today in Greenville. Wow!

We had about 1-inch here in Denison.

Did any of that heavy rainfall fall into Lavon's basin? I'm unfamiliar with the drainage basins, but if that much rain fell, I sure hope some of it makes its way to Lavon. If anyone more savvy with the hydrological data than myself would share a link you have on hand for water-level changes in Lavon or other lakes from today's rainfall it'd be much appreciated.

The one I use is:
http://www.lakelevels.info/?StateID=TX

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Those storms that just popped up SE of SA are going to bring some serious rainfall amounts. Barely moving.

[Portastorm]

This is just comical now. Radar lit up at 2 p.m. Storms to our southwest moving south of the metro area. Heavy convection developing in a line stretching northeast to southwest to our EAST. And there's convection to our south moving EAST.

Another day, another watch, another big fat frickin' zero in the rain gauge.

For those of you thinking "geez will this guy stop whining?" I'm done. Don't worry. If it ever rains again of consequence in Austin, I'll post.

[Texas Snowman]

I feel your pain Porta.

But I think I can tell you with some certainty when it will rain in Austin.

And that would be tomorrow.

Why? Because we're moving my daughter out of her dorm for the summer at UT.

Pretty sure that will bring a gully washer to the Capitol City.

[vbhoutex]

This is just comical now. Radar lit up at 2 p.m. Storms to our southwest moving south of the metro area. Heavy convection developing in a line stretching northeast to southwest to our EAST. And there's convection to our south moving EAST.

Another day, another watch, another big fat frickin' zero in the rain gauge.

For those of you thinking "geez will this guy stop whining?" I'm done. Don't worry. If it ever rains again of consequence in Austin, I'll post.

I feel your pain to Porta. We have had .04" of rain so far this month. That is also the amount we have had in the last 30 days. We are almost 7" below normal so far this year.

[wxman57]

Nah, it's looking dry for this weekend. 12z GFS indicates some near record cold weather in Houston next week, along with a few inches of rain.

By the way, Portastorm, the National Hurricane Conference will be in Austin next spring. We'll have to get together for lunch or something. That's assuming I'll be attending. Good chance of that since I can drive there.



Even colder there in Austin next week. Some significant rain as well. Interesting that the GFS has Austin getting a lot more rain than Houston with the current weather system.

[vbhoutex]

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Saw JB tweet last night, looks big. (Cold)

[hriverajr]

Porta,

Same situation here in Del Rio. No rain, south of us again.

[aggiecutter]

the WPC, formerly the HPC, says a lot rain early next week for a lot of Texas, maybe even SW Austin:

[dhweather]

This is just comical now. Radar lit up at 2 p.m. Storms to our southwest moving south of the metro area. Heavy convection developing in a line stretching northeast to southwest to our EAST. And there's convection to our south moving EAST.

Another day, another watch, another big fat frickin' zero in the rain gauge.

For those of you thinking "geez will this guy stop whining?" I'm done. Don't worry. If it ever rains again of consequence in Austin, I'll post.

Man, I hate it for you. I know exactly how you feel, it happens to me at least 70% of the time. I'm still in disbelief we got all the rain we did yesterday. I've seen water standing in places I haven't seen it do in a loooooooong time.

[aggiecutter]

12z GFS QPF for the next 4 days:

[dhweather]

*MAYBE* this will happen so that the PWC gets some appreciable rain. Run Total Precip from the 12Z Euro:

[Rgv20]

Severe Thunderstorm Watch for Deep South Texas!

Severe Thunderstorm Watch

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 136
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
500 PM CDT FRI MAY 9 2014

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 136 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

TXC047-061-131-215-247-249-261-273-355-427-479-489-505-100400-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0136.140509T2200Z-140510T0400Z/

TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BROOKS CAMERON DUVAL
HIDALGO JIM HOGG JIM WELLS
KENEDY KLEBERG NUECES
STARR WEBB WILLACY
ZAPATA
$$

[Rgv20]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
558 PM CDT FRI MAY 9 2014

.DISCUSSION...SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS OVER MEXICO IN RESPONSE TO
THE ADVANCING UPPER LEVEL WAVE CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A MORE EASTERLY
COMPONENT TO THE SURFACE WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES.
RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAY WORK WITH EFFECTIVE HELICITY
VALUES AROUND 100 M2/S2 TO PRODUCE A BRIEF ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT
THROUGH THE NEXT 3 HOURS OR SO MAINLY IN BROOKS/JIM HOGG/KENEDY
AND ZAPATA COUNTIES. LOCAL INCREASES IN HELICITY IN ZAPATA COUNTY
AT THE BEND OF A CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE TAKING AN INCREASINGLY LINE
ECHO WAVE PATTERN SHAPE MAY ALSO BRIEFLY LOCALLY INCREASE SEVERE
THREAT. EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES OF 50 TO 60 KNOTS AND
MIXED LAYER CAPES AT 2000 TO 2500 J/KG CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE
EVENING PROGRESSESE. RADAR Z/V DATA AND RECENT TRENDS WILL REQUIRE
THE ISSUANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS STARTING VERY SHORTLY
OVER OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES PRIMARILY FOR DAMAGING WIND WITH THE
ATTENDANT THREAT OF LARGE HAIL IN THE STRONGEST CORES.

WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AT 1.8 TO 2.0 INCHES...AMONGST
HISTORICAL HIGH VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL ALSO BE CLOSELY
MONTIORING THE HYDROLOGICAL RESPONSE AND FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS MAY
BE REQUIRED AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES GIVEN THE LARGE AREAL
COVERAGE AND SLOW MOVEMENT OF STORMS.

[Rgv20]

Line of Storm look nasty! I can already hear the thunder outside..

[Ntxw]

Things are boding well for the long term. After the chill next week (for May) overall it looks like another trough will again park to our west. Moist flow incoming from the Pacific, maybe even far west Texas will be into play. As long as these troughs continue to plow west of us we're in good standings. Our old enemy the Pacific Ocean in the summer is now becoming an asset. Monsoonal trough around the gulf of Tehuantepec right below us is quite active as Nino 3, 1+2, and 3.4 are warm aiding rich moisture from this region..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/epac/flash-wv.html