Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Good weather will prevail today in PR and VI with only a few fast moving showers.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
534 AM AST SAT MAY 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA FROM THE WEST...AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN MOVES EAST. DEEPER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL ESTABLISH ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS OVERNIGHT WITH ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS
OBSERVED OVER WATERS AS WELL AS EASTERN PUERTO RICO. TEMPERATURES
WERE IN THE UPPER 70S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL FLATTEN EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK...
AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ESTABLISHES ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THEREFORE...FOR THE WEEKEND EXPECT
THE TYPICAL WEATHER PATTERN...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
DIURNALLY INDUCED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND WEST
PUERTO RICO EACH AFTERNOON.

AS RIDGE FLATTENS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK...BETTER
CHANCES FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED MONDAY
THRU WEDNESDAY WITH MONDAY AFTERNOON THRU TUESDAY AS THE WETTEST
PERIOD.IN FACT...PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL RISE TO NEAR 2 INCHES
ACCORDING TO GFS AND WRF. HOWEVER...THIS COULD ALSO TURN OUT
TO BE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS MORE THAN ANYTHING ELSE...WITH THE MAIN
FORCING REMAINING NORTH OF 20N.

A DRIER AND MORE STABLE PATTERN WILL RETURN ONCE AGAIN ON THURSDAY
AND INTO THE NEXT WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM
THE EAST. HOWEVER...STILL EXPECT DIURNALLY INDUCED SHOWERS EACH
AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLD SHOWERS ACROSS LOCAL ISLANDS AND TJSJ. AFTER
17/15Z...SHRA POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF PR BUT WL FOCUS MORE ON
WEST AND SOUTHWEST AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES WITH CHANCE OF
TSRA FOR TJMZ. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION POSSIBLE. WIND BLO FL100 E
10-15 KT SHIFTING FROM THE NW ABOVE FL100.

&&

.MARINE...NORTHEAST SWELLS EXPECTED TO REACH THE AREA SUN AND
CONTINUE THRU TUE. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THRU EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 75 85 75 / 10 30 30 30
STT 87 75 85 76 / 10 40 40 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
300 PM AST SAT MAY 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING WESTERN PR ALMOST WHERE
IT DID YESTERDAY AND EXPECT A LITTLE LESS RAIN TOTALS WITHOUT A
NEARBY UPPER JET. A LARGE AREA OF CLEAR SKIES JUST NORTH OF THE
ISLANDS WILL NUDGE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT. EXPECT TYPICAL SHALLOW
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IN NORTHEAST TRADES BUT LOOKS LIKE TOO LITTLE
MOISTURE FOR MORE THAN ISOLATED COVERAGE EXCEPT WELL NORTH OF
ANEGADA.

HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR SUBSTANTIAL RAIN STILL LOOKS LIKE MON WEST
OF SAN JUAN IN NORTH PR. GFS MODEL SOUNDING SHOWS A LITTLE LESS
DEEP MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY BUT THAT ALSO IMPLIES BETTER POTENTIAL
FOR DIURNAL HEATING. NO CHANGES MADE TO THIS PORTION OF FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR AT LOCAL TAF SITES...SOME VCSH. SHRA NR TJPS...TJMZ
AND TJBQ...WITH CHANCE OF TSRA FOR TJMZ 17/19Z THRU 17/22Z. WIND BLO
FL100 E 10-15 KT WITH SEA BREEZE...LOCALIZED GUSTS NR STRMS. ISOLD
SHRA TONIGHT AND SUN MORNING OVR EASTERN SECTIONS OF FCST AREA POSBL.

&&

.MARINE...SWELL FROM STORM IN CENTRAL ATLANTIC HAS GREATLY
DIMINISHED ON ITS JOURNEY TOWARDS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. EVEN BUOYS
41044 AND 41049 ARE STILL BELOW 7 FT AND SWELL WILL PEAK NEAR 6 FT
ON MON. EXPECT MODERATE TRADE WINDS AS THE RIDGE NORTH OF AREA WEAKENS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 85 75 85 / 10 20 30 40
STT 76 85 77 87 / 10 20 30 30

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Good weather will prevail today in PR and VI.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
452 AM AST SUN MAY 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WILL FLATTEN EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK...AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOW
LOCATED ACROSS THE EASTERN COAST OF U.S. MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
OVERNIGHT WITH ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS OBSERVED OVER
WATERS. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS WITH EASTERLY WINDS AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY...AS BUILDING RIDGE DOMINATES THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...WITH THE PREVAILING EASTERLY WIND FLOW...
STILL EXPECT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS...FOLLOWED BY LIMITED AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS
WEST AND NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO.

AS RIDGE FLATTENS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK...BETTER
CHANCES FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED MONDAY
THRU AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.IN FACT...PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL RISE
AROUND 2 INCHES ACCORDING TO GFS AND WRF BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
AT THIS TIME...WEDNESDAY APPEARS TO BE THE MOST ACTIVE DAY AS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS CLOSER TO THE AREA AND INDUCES A SURFACE TROUGH.
ALTHOUGH...BEST LOW LEVEL FORCING REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA.
STEERING WINDS SUGGEST NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL PR WILL BE THE
MOST FAVORED LOCATIONS FOR CONVECTION.

A DRIER AND MORE STABLE PATTERN WILL RETURN ONCE AGAIN ON THURSDAY
AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM
THE EAST. HOWEVER...STILL EXPECT A FEW DIURNALLY INDUCED SHOWERS
EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...AFTER 18/16Z...SHRA POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL AND W OF
PR...FOCUSING MORE ON WEST AND NORTHWEST AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES
WITH CHANCE OF TSRA FOR TJBQ AND VCTS FOR TJMZ. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
POSSIBLE. WIND BLO 8 KFT E TO ESE AROUND 10 KT SHIFTING FROM THE
SW ABOVE 8 KFT.

&&

.MARINE...NORTHEAST SWELLS EXPECTED TO REACH THE ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS TODAY WITH SEAS BUILDING 4-6 FT. SWELLS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 74 86 76 / 10 30 40 30
STT 86 75 86 75 / 0 30 30 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
312 PM AST SUN MAY 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A WEAK RIDGE IS CURRENTLY OVER THE
AREA. A JET STREAM CROSSING OVER THE STRAIT OF FLORIDA WILL BE
FORCED TOWARD THE AREA BY A TROUGH THAT WILL PASS NORTH OF THE
AREA ON TUESDAY. A TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER CUBA MID WEEK AND
ADVANCE NO FARTHER THAN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE LEAVING PUERTO RICO
AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS UNDER A WEAK JET AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT
THROUGH THE FOLLOWING MONDAY.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN
TROPICAL ATLANTIC. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN BEGINNING MONDAY WITH A WEAK LOW FORMING NEAR CUBA ON
FRIDAY. A STRONGER LOW WILL CUT-OFF NORTH OF HISPANIOLA AND WEST
OF FLORIDA MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WRAPPING AROUND A STRONG LOW AT
THE SURFACE ABOUT 1500 MILES TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST WILL MAINTAIN
GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOISTURE FROM
THE EAST SOUTHEAST WILL INCREASE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT
WILL THEN DECREASE CONSIDERABLY THROUGH SATURDAY.


&&

.DISCUSSION...A FEW VERY HEAVY SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED FROM MARICAO
TO MOROVIS THIS AFTERNOON BUT TOPS HAVE SO FAR BEEN BELOW 20 KFT.
SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET IN THE
WEST. A FEW STREAMERS DEVELOPED OFF THE ISLANDS EAST OF PUERTO
RICO AND THE ONE FROM VIEQUES SENT A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS CEIBA AND FAJARDO.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN LATE
TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO AND IN THE
WATERS AROUND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES. AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN DEVELOPS WE
WILL SEE INCREASING ACTIVITY BOTH IN WESTERN PUERTO RICO IN THE
AFTERNOONS AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
BEST RAINFALLS SHOULD BE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WHEN UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS THE BEST. THAT SAID...HOWEVER...LOW TO MID
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM JUST ABOVE 850 MB TO JUST ABOVE 500 MB REMAINS
WEAK NOW THROUGH FRIDAY AND WILL KEEP RAINFALL AMOUNTS MODERATED
TO A GREAT EXTENT. HAVE ALSO NOTED THAT LIFTED INDICES DID NOT
VENTURE BELOW -5.5 UNTIL FRIDAY IN THE GFS SOLUTION. ON FRIDAY
HOWEVER...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FROM ABOUT 800 MB TO 500 MB ARE
FORECAST TO DROP BELOW 25 PERCENT AND AT 700 MB CONTINUE BELOW 20
PERCENT THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. THIS LEAVES ONLY MID TO HIGH
CLOUDS AND IN GENERAL SHOULD GENERATE ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS FRIDAY
AND BEYOND FROM MOISTURE IN THE MARINE LAYER AND AFTERNOON CONVECTION.


&&

.AVIATION...TILL ARND 19/06Z...SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA NW PR WI FEW OBSCD
MTNS. ALL TAF SITES WILL LIKELY BE VFR TIL ISOLD/SCT SHRA DVLP
TONITE NR TJSJ/USVI/LEEWARDS FOR ISOLD/BRF MVFR CIGS. WIND BLO
FL100 VRBL LESS THAN 10 KT BCMG ESE 5-15 KT TONITE AND MON.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS HAVE RISEN SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH OF A STRONG LOW TO
OUR NORTH NORTHEAST...BUT SWELL IS DIMINISHING RAPIDLY AS IT
TRAVELS TOWARD THE AREA. CURRENTLY MODELS ARE FORECASTING 6 FEET
OR LESS IN OUR EXPOSED WATERS...BUT IN UPSTREAM FORECAST POINTS
THE MODEL HAS BEEN UNDERESTIMATING WAVE HEIGHTS. MAY HAVE TO PUT
UP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES SHOULD BUOYS INDICATE...HIGHER SWELL
ARRIVING IN OUTER ATLANTIC WATERS. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK
MONDAY AFTERNOON. BUOY 41044 HAS PEAKED AT 8.3 FEET AND MAY GO
HIGHER TONIGHT. SO FAR 41043 HAS ONLY RISEN TO 5.6 FEET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 86 76 88 / 30 40 30 30
STT 76 87 76 87 / 40 40 40 40

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Variable weather will prevail today in PR and VI with intervals of sun and scattered showers.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
559 AM AST MON MAY 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC BY EARLY TUESDAY...THEN DIG SOUTH OVER HISPANIOLA AND
CUBA BY MIDWEEK...WHICH WILL CAUSE DIVERGENCE ALOFT OVER THE LOCAL
AREA LATE THIS WEEK. AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH LOCAL
EFFECTS TO CAUSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF PUERTO RICO...HOWEVER SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF PUERTO RICO EXCEPT THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST. USVI SHOULD EXPECT PASSING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS.


&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS HAVE SLOWLY INCREASED OVER THE LOCAL AREA AS THE
NIGHT PROGRESSED. A PATCH OF HIGHER MOISTURE IS MOVING IN FROM THE
EAST...CAUSING THE INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED BY THIS AFTERNOON AS
IT COMBINES WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND LOCAL EFFECTS...ESPECIALLY
OVER NW PR UNDER A E-SE FLOW AND AN INCREASE IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE
AT THE TIME OF MAX HEATING...AS SUGGESTED BY THE GFS MODEL WHICH
INDICATES AN INCREASE IN P-WAT BY 18Z TODAY.

THE AREA OF HIGHER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER NORTH AND
WEST OF PUERTO RICO AND THE ATLANTIC WATERS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THIS WILL CAUSE SHOWERS TO PERSIST OVER THE WATERS OVERNIGHT.
TUESDAY LOOKS SOMEWHAT DRIER AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...BUT THE REST OF THE ISLAND
AS WELL AS THE USVI REMAIN WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE TO CAUSE SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.

ONCE THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS DOWN OVER THE HISPANIOLA AND
CUBA...DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL CAUSE INSTABILITY IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AND CONTINUING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE GENERAL AREA. DRIER FOR THIS WEEKEND WITH GFS
MODEL INDICATING P-WAT VALUES UNDER 1.4 INCHES WITH AN EASTERLY WIND.


&&

.AVIATION...PASSING SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND
ISX/IST AND JSJ THIS MORNING. AFTER 19/16Z...SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT
EXPECTED OVER NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL PR WITH CHANCE OF TSRA FOR
JBQ AND VCTS FOR JMZ AND JSJ. LOW LEVEL WINDS ESE 5-15 KT.


&&

.MARINE...NORTHEASTERLY SWELL WILL AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA UNTIL
WEDNESDAY. IT IS EXPECTED TO PEAK TODAY...CAUSING SEAS OF UP TO 6
FEET ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE LOCAL PASSAGES...SLOWLY
SUBSIDING UNTIL WEDNESDAY. WINDS UP TO 18 KNOTS AND SEAS UP TO 6
FEET ARE EXPECTED TODAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 76 87 76 / 40 30 30 20
STT 85 76 86 77 / 40 40 40 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
253 PM AST MON MAY 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH WILL BUILD OVER CUBA AND
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING INCREASED
DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND SOUTHWEST FLOW TO PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S.VIRGIN ISLANDS. TROUGHINESS MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
LATER IN THE WEEK AND CONTINUES THE GOOD VENTILATION. UPPER LEVELS
REMAIN MOIST WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY.

AT MID LEVELS...A TROUGH AND LOW PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL WEAKLY DIG INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TOMORROW
AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WEAKNESS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MODEST MOISTURE IN THE FROM 7 TO 20 KFT WILL END BEGINNING FRIDAY
AND IT WILL REMAIN DRY THERE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC AND HOLD EAST SOUTHEAST TRADE WINDS OVER THE LOCAL AREA
THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. LOWER LEVELS REMAIN MODERATELY MOIST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS...SOME OF THEM QUITE HEAVY...DEVELOPED OVER
THE CARIBBEAN WATERS SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO AND MOVED ONSHORE...
GIVING ALMOST ALL OF SAINT CROIX...VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND EASTERN
PUERTO RICO SOME RAIN. STRONGER SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPED OVER NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO. AMOUNTS OF UP
TO 1.4 INCHES WERE SEEN. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS TONIGHT AS COLUMNAR MOISTURE CONTINUES TO RISE HERE
AND AS FAR EAST AS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS UPSTREAM. ON TUESDAY THE
FIRST POCKETS OF DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL PASS OVER HEAD WITH THE
JET-STREAM TO THE NORTHWEST. PASSING CENTERS OF DIVERGENCE ALOFT
WILL CONTINUE TO PASS OVER HEAD AS THE JET-STREAM APPROACHES WITH
GREATER FREQUENCY AND INTENSITY THROUGH MONDAY. THE JET AT 250 MB
WILL BE 40 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH FRIDAY BUT AFTERWARD THE GFS
SHOWS IT INCREASING UP TO 65 KNOTS. MUCH DRIER AIR AT MID LEVELS
FROM ABOUT 800 MB UP TO 500 MB IS SEEN IN THE SUBSIDENCE OF THE
SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE HIGH OVER THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC AND
THIS HIGH SLOWLY MOVES TOWARD THE AREA WITH THE EFFECT THAT THIS
LAYER WILL DRY OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS TO
LESS THAN 20 PERCENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY BEGINNING ON FRIDAY. THIS
DRYING WILL GREATLY INHIBIT DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AFTER THIS
TIME THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. UNTIL THE DRY AIR ARRIVES HOWEVER
CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR STRONGER...MORE FREQUENT AND MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY. MOISTURE WILL DECREASE TONIGHT THROUGH
AROUND MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT LIMITING ACTIVITY SOMEWHAT. BUT THEN
MUCH BETTER MOISTURE RETURNS AND BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
SHOULD BE ACTIVE WITH HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL
BE THE PERIOD WITH THE GREATEST RISK OF URBAN AND SMALL STREAM
FLOODING AND PERHAPS EVEN SOME LIMITED AND LOCALIZED RIVER
FLOODING.

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN...NORTH AND NORTHWEST PUERTO
RICO...PRODUCING SOME MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. PERIODS OF MVFR OR EVEN
BRIEF IFR ARE EXPECTED OVER TJBQ AND TJSJ WITH VCSH ACROSS TJMZ
AND TIST UNTIL AT LEAST 19/22Z. MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA OVERNIGHT WITH FEW VCSH. TJSJ 19/12Z
SOUNDING INDICATED A SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW UP TO 15K FEET...FROM
THE SURFACE TO AROUND 10K FEET...BECOMING WESTERLY AND STRONGER
ALOFT.


&&

.MARINE...SWELL FROM THE WEAKENING LOW IN THE NORTHWEST CENTRAL
ATLANTIC ARE SUBSIDING NOW AND CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. HEAVY SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE...BUT
WILL BE PARTICULARLY STRONG WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 87 76 86 / 50 30 30 40
STT 78 87 77 85 / 50 30 30 30

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Variable weather will prevail today in PR and VI with intervals of sun and scattered showers.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
611 AM AST TUE MAY 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN DIGGING SOUTH OVER
CUBA AND HISPANIOLA. THIS WILL LEAVE THE LOCAL ISLANDS IN THE
DIVERGENT SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...WHICH WILL HELP WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PATCH OF MOISTURE MOVED INTO THE LOCAL ISLANDS
OVERNIGHT...CAUSING NUMEROUS SHOWERS...SOME OF THEM HEAVY...ACROSS EASTERN
PUERTO RICO. MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NOW OVER THE ATLANTIC
WATERS AND ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED EARLY IN THE MORNING
OVER THE ISLANDS.

LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT RELATIVELY DRIER AIR IS MOVING IN
OVER THE LOCAL AREA TODAY. HOWEVER...THERE MAY STILL BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO CAUSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER NW PR. WRF MODEL HAD SOMEWHAT OF AN
ABRUPT CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY TO TODAY AS HE 20/00Z RUN IS
SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER THAN WHAT IS SHOWED YESTERDAY. NAM MODEL IS
ALSO IN AGREEMENT...SHOWING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ONLY IN THE NW
QUADRANT OF PUERTO RICO AND THE ATLANTIC WATERS. ALSO...THE MODELS
ARE DRIER FOR WEDNESDAY THAN THEY HAD BEEN THE PAST FEW
DAYS...WITH THE SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW SECTIONS OF PR.
HAVING SAID THAT...THE MODELS CONTINUE INSISTING IN THE UPPER
TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH TO THE WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA...THIS WILL
CAUSE ENOUGH VENTILATION ALOFT TO HELP KEEP SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTING FOR SOME TIME AFTER THEY DEVELOP.
AVAILABLE MOISTURE REMAINS STEADY FOR THURSDAY BEFORE DECREASING
SIGNIFICANTLY ON FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.


&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE LOCAL
TERMINALS. SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NW PR MAY CAUSE TEMPO MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS AT TJBQ AND POSSIBLY TJMZ AFTER 20/17Z. E-SE SFC WINDS
WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS TODAY FROM 10 TO 15 KTS AND GUSTY.

&&

.MARINE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING HOURS. LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND
SEAS EXPECTED IN THOSE AREAS. SUBSIDING SWELL CONTINUES TO AFFECT
THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS...KEEPING SEAS UP TO 6 FEET OVER THE
ATLANTIC AND THE LOCAL PASSAGES. SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS ARE URGED
TO EXERCISE CAUTION.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 76 86 75 / 30 30 40 30
STT 86 77 86 77 / 30 30 30 30

[cycloneye]

Tornado Warning for part of northern PR

TORNADO WARNING
PRC021-033-047-051-061-135-137-143-201900-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.TO.W.0001.140520T1817Z-140520T1900Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
217 PM AST TUE MAY 20 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
BAYAMON MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF BAYAMON...
CATANO MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO...
COROZAL MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO...
DORADO MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO...
GUAYNABO MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO...
TOA ALTA MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF TOA ALTA...
TOA BAJA MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF SABANA SECA...
VEGA ALTA MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO...

* UNTIL 300 PM AST

* AT 210 PM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR RIO
LAJAS...OR NEAR TOA ALTA...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
CAMPANILLA AND PAJAROS BY 225 PM AST...
CANDELARIA ARENAS...CANDELARIA AND PAJAROS BY 230 PM AST...
CANDELARIA ARENAS BY 235 PM AST...
SABANA SECA AND BAYAMON BY 245 PM AST...
BAYAMON BY 250 PM AST...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

&&

LAT...LON 1845 6617 1836 6610 1835 6634 1840 6636
TIME...MOT...LOC 1816Z 257DEG 10KT 1840 6626

$$

SNEL

[cycloneye]

No damage occurred with the severe event that occurred.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
342 PM AST TUE MAY 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS TO THE NORTH AS WEAK
TROUGHING DEEPENS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE TROUGH WILL DRIFT EASTWARD OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE
MONDAY WITH POCKETS OF STRONG DIVERGENCE THROWN OUT OVER THE AREA
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND.

AT MID LEVELS...WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OVER HISPANIOLA...OFF A
STRONGER LOW EAST OF NEW JERSEY AND NORTH OF PUERTO RICO. THE
WEAK LOW REMAIN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN AREA OF DRIER AIR
SOUTH OF A MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST WILL MOVE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN SUB-TROPICAL
ATLANTIC WILL BRING SOUTHEAST TO EAST SOUTHEAST TRADE WIND FLOW TO
THE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PATCHES WILL
CONTINUE TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA PRODUCING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...FUNNEL AND MAMMATUS
CLOUDS WERE SEEN DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS OVER PARTS OF
NORTHERN PUERTO RICO. THE HEAVIEST RAINS AT 3 PM AST WERE SEEN
MAINLY FROM ADJUNTAS TO ARECIBO. THE GFS MODEL DID SHOW FAVORABLE
DYNAMICS FOR LOCALLY SEVERE WEATHER...THOUGH NO DAMAGE HAS BEEN
REPORTED UP TO NOW. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO EASTERN
PUERTO RICO TONIGHT AND MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY AS THE WEAK TROUGH AND JET ALOFT CREATE DIVERGENCE ALOFT
FAVORING UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION OVER THE AREA. LATE THURSDAY DRIER
AIR IS SEEN ENTERING THE FORECAST AREA IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS FROM
ABOUT 800 MB UP TO 500 MB AND SHOULD CAUSE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DIMINISH. HOWEVER DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND WIND SPEEDS
OF 50 TO 55 KNOTS AT 250 MB ARE NOTED IN THE MODEL SOLUTION OVER
PUERTO RICO SUGGEST THAT STRONG THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING SEVERE
COULD OCCUR UNDER FAVORABLE CONDITIONS...INCLUDING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND STRONG SOLAR HEATING AT THE SURFACE. THE
TAIL OF THE JET AND THE TROUGH PASS OVER THE AREA AROUND MID-WEEK
AND SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WOULD BE EXPECTED WITH THIS AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE DURING THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO...PRODUCING SOME MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS.
PERIODS OF MVFR OR EVEN IFR ARE EXPECTED OVER TJMZ AND TJBQ WITH
VCSH ACROSS TJMZ UNTIL AT LEAST 20/22Z. MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA OVERNIGHT WITH FEW VCSH. TJSJ
20/12Z SOUNDING INDICATED A SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW UP TO 20 KNOTS
FROM THE SURFACE TO AROUND 5K FEET...BECOMING WESTERLY AND STRONGER
ALOFT.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THROUGH THURSDAY BUT WINDS
WILL CONTINUE UP TO 18 KNOTS IN OUTER WATERS SO EXERCISE CAUTION
STATEMENTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
ARE NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 87 76 88 / 50 60 40 40
STT 77 87 77 86 / 50 60 40 40

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Good weather will prevail in PR during the morning but afternoon showers will form in the mountains and move NW.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
530 AM AST WED MAY 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DIG SOUTH ACROSS
CUBA AND HISPANIOLA. THE LOCATION OF THE TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE
LOCAL AREA WILL CAUSE DIVERGENCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...PROMOTING
VERTICAL MOTION AND INSTABILITY AND THEREFORE ENHANCING THE
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA TODAY AND MAYBE ON
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR AND NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO. CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE ON FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE OBSERVED TODAY ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC WATERS...AT TIMES WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING. VERY
LITTLE...IF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY AFFECTED LAND AREAS OVERNIGHT.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED IN THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA.

THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL INSTABILITY WITH THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL CAUSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...IN PARTICULAR ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
QUADRANT OF PUERTO RICO...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND NORTH CENTRAL SECTIONS. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED. THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE DECENT WITH P-WAT
VALUES AROUND 1.6-1.7 INCHES THROUGH TODAY...DECREASING ON
THURSDAY DOWN TO ABOUT 1.5 INCHES. THIS PUTS TODAY AS THE DAY
WITH HIGHER POTENTIAL OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH COVERAGE
DECREASING TOMORROW.

LATEST GFS RUN INDICATES THAT MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE ON
FRIDAY AND WINDS WILL INCREASE. EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING RELATIVELY DRIER AIR THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH PATCHES OF
MOISTURE COMING IN ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH THE DRIER AIR
IS COMING FROM THE EAST...LATEST AEROSOL MODEL NAAPS DOES NOT
INDICATE ANY SAHARAN DUST COMING IN IN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...TSRA POSSIBLE AT JSJ LATER TODAY SO INCLUDED A VCTS FOR
THEM. T-STORMS MORE LIKELY AT JBQ SO ADDED A TEMPO GROUP WITH TSRA.
ALL OTHER TAF SITES LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR WITH JUST VCSH.


&&

.MARINE...NORTHEASTERLY SWELL CONTINUES TO SUBSIDE TODAY AND SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT 5 FEET OR LESS AND WINDS WILL BE AT 17 KNOTS
OR LESS. HOWEVER...EXPECT LOCALLY STRONGER WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS
NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND PORTIONS OF THE MONA PASSAGE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 75 88 77 / 40 20 20 20
STT 86 77 87 78 / 10 10 20 10

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
300 PM AST WED MAY 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL WEAKEN NEXT 24 HOURS. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL DOMINATES THE LOCAL
AREA TOMORROW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...AND WILL DIG SOUTH OVER
THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A DRIER AIR MASS HAS MOVED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
TODAY. THIS AREA OF DRY AIR LIMITED THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS
BEGAN TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE NORTHERN SLOPES
OF PUERTO RICO. IN ADDITION...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WAS
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE ACTIVE WEATHER YESTERDAY AFTERNOON HAS WEAKEN.
HOWEVER...DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH LOCAL EFFECTS AND
AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND NORTH CENTRAL SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO.

THE SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW AT THE SURFACE PROMOTED HIGHER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON.
AS 230 PM AST...THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE OBSERVED AT THE LUIS MUNOZ
MARIN AIRPORT WAS 92 DEGREES. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA...THE WIND FLOW WILL SHIFT TO A MORE
EASTERLY DIRECTION WHICH WILL BRING LOCAL TEMPERATURES BACK TO
NORMAL.

FOR THE LONG TERM...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AND MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS TROUGH WILL
COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL EFFECT TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL OF
PUERTO RICO.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING
AREA OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT FOR A FEW TSRA OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS
NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. TJSJ 21/12Z SOUNDING INDICATED A
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW UP TO 10 KNOTS FROM THE SURFACE TO AROUND
10K FEET...BECOMING WESTERLY AND STRONGER 10K FT.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 16 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 88 77 88 / 20 20 20 20
STT 77 87 78 87 / 10 20 10 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
238 PM AST THU MAY 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
AMPLIFY ACROSS CUBA AND JAMAICA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WHILE PROGRESS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE REST OF THE GREATER ANTILLES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
WILL BUILD ACROSS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN EARLY IN THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PARTLY TO VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE TO THE WEST
NORTHWEST AFFECTING THIS AND THE NEARBY MUNICIPALITIES DURING THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. MOISTURE DIMINISHED
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS A GENERALLY DRY AIR MASS BEGINS TO
ENCOMPASS THE AREA FROM THE EAST. IN FACTS...TJSJ 22/12Z SOUNDING
INDICATED THAT PWAT DECREASED TO 1.43 INCHES FROM 1.59 INCHES FROM
PREVIOUS SOUNDING. HOWEVER...THE LIMITED AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN
COMBINATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL EFFECTS INDUCED THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHOWER ACTIVITY.

AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY
SOUTHWARD ACROSS CUBA AND JAMAICA ON FRIDAY AND LATER ON IS EXPECTED
TO PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE REST OF THE GREATER ANTILLES. THIS
FEATURE IN COMBINATION WITH A DEVELOPING MID TO UPPER RIDGE ACROSS
THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WILL PROMOTE A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THESE FEATURES WILL COMBINE TOGETHER TO
ERODE DE AVAILABLE MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION...PRODUCING A PERIOD
OF STABLE AND GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE LOCAL ISLANDS
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS EXPECTED BY
THE UPCOMING WEEK...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH PROGRESS
FURTHER EASTWARD OVER THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER TJMZ AND TJBQ UNTIL AT LEAST 22/22Z.
AFTER 22/22Z...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 18 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TONIGHT. THE EASTERLY TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT ON FRIDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 88 77 87 / 20 20 0 0
STT 78 88 78 88 / 10 10 10 10

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Good weather will prevail today in PR and VI.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
542 AM AST FRI MAY 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...WHILE A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS AMPLIFYING
ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
OVERNIGHT...WITH ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS OBSERVED OVER THE LOCAL
WATERS. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS
WITH A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND FLOW.

SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...
WHILE A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN. THIS EVOLVING PATTERN WILL LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING
OF THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND RAPID EROSION OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE
TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THEREFORE...A FAIR AND
STABLE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS FRI-SAT WITH SOME DIURNALLY INDUCED SHOWERS WHICH WILL BE
MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS PUERTO RICO EACH AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK...A MORE TYPICAL WEATHER PATTERN
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS WITH TRADE WIND SHOWERS ACROSS
WINDWARD AREAS IN THE MORNING...FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND WEST
PUERTO RICO. AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SHOWERS MAY INCREASE
BY MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK AS RIDGE ALOFT FINALLY ERODES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AT ALL TAF SITES. BREEZY TODAY
WITH WINDS 15-20KT XCPT AROUND 10-KT AT JMZ.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS OF 15-20 KT AND SEAS OF 3-6 FEET EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...STRONGLY CONSIDERING ISSUING A RED FLAG WARNING FOR
TODAY FOR THE SOUTH COASTAL PLAIN AND VIEQUES DUE TO VERY LOW RH`S
AND WINDY CONDITIONS. MAX RH`S ARE RUNNING PRETTY LOW THIS MORNING
SOME OF THE LOWEST WE`VE SEEN ALL YEAR LONG AND CURRENT VALUES ARE
AS MUCH AS 10% LOWER THAN 24 HRS AGO. EVENING UPPER AIR DATA CAME IN
VERY DRY WITH A 12C DEWPOINT DEPRESSION AT 850 MB WITH A 1.30 PWAT
ON A 03Z ACARS NEARLY -2SD FOR LATE MAY AND THE TREND IS FOR DRIER
CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HRS AS THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION STRENGTHENS
RAPIDLY. 0-1 KM AVG WINDS WERE 19-KT AT 00Z AND EXPECTED TO BE
GREATER THAN 16-KT THIS AFTERNOON SO PLENTY OF WIND TO MEET THE WIND
SPEED CRITERIA. MOIST SIGNATURE ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS NOT FVRBL
FOR RED FLAGS BUT LOOKING AT IR IMAGERY AND MODEL GUIDANCE THICKEST
HIGH CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO STAY OVR THE MONA PASSAGE. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR RH TRENDS NEXT FEW HOURS AND MAY ISSUE A RFW AT ANY TIME
BEFORE 6AM BUT AT THE VERY LEAST EXPECT A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT TO
BE ISSUED FOR AREAS MENTIONED ABOVE.

ON SATURDAY...SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL BE STRONGER BUT THE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP OFF ABOUT 3-KT. UPPER LEVEL MOIST PLUME IS
EXPECTED TO INCH CLOSER TO WRN PR AND MAY TEND TO KEEP TEMPS DOWN
A DEG OR TWO. RED FLAG CONDITIONS LOOK LESS LIKELY DUE TO MORE
MARGINAL WIND SPEEDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 77 88 77 / 0 10 10 10
STT 86 79 86 79 / 0 10 10 10

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
259 PM AST FRI MAY 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL PASS THROUGH A
BROAD TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THEY WILL
CONTINUE LIFTING OUT NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY JUNE.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WILL KEEP
A NOSE IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WHILE A WEAK TROUGH CONTINUES
OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. MID LEVELS ARE MOSTLY DRY
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST OF NEXT MONTH.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN CENTRAL ATLANTIC
WILL BE JOINED BY A HIGH EXITING THE EASTERN UNITED STATES TO HOLD
A RIDGE NORTH OF THE AREA AND MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE
WINDS THROUGH THE END OF MAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS HAVE FORMED IN THE CARIBBEAN SOUTHEAST OF
PUERTO RICO AROUND THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES AND MOVED
WEST NORTHWEST OVER THE MAINLAND BRINGING MOST OF THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE MAIN ISLAND LIGHT SHOWERS OF UNDER ONE QUARTER INCH.
DURING THE AFTERNOON SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS FORMED OVER GUAYNABO AND
DORADO...OVER THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND NEAR AGUADA. SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
DRIER AIR HAS MOVED OVER THE AREA FROM JUST OVER 850 MB TO AROUND
500 MB AND IS EXPECTED TO STAY THROUGH THE UP COMING WEEK AND
LIMIT SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THAT TIME. AT THIS TIME THE GFS
SUGGESTS THAT MOISTURE WILL INCREASE EARLY NEXT MONTH. IN THE
MEANTIME...A TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL SEND MOISTURE AT UPPER LEVELS
ACROSS THE AREA TO MAINTAIN CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDINESS...WHICH
MAY BLOCK THE SUN FROM TIME TO TIME. IN ADDITION...A FEW SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP UNDER THE INTENSE HEATING FROM THE SUN...WHICH IS OVERHEAD
AT THE HIGHEST ANGLE OF THE YEAR...AND THEY WILL BENEFIT FROM
PASSING AREAS OF DIVERGENCE ALOFT GENERATED BY THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.

&&

.AVIATION...HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS MOST TAF SITES
THROUGH 24/12Z. HOWEVER...FEW PASSING -SHRA/SHRA EXPECTED MAINLY
OVER TNCM...TKPK...TIST...AND TISX. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE
EAST SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 10-20 KNOTS.


&&

.MARINE...WINDS HAVE KEPT SEAS IN THE EXPOSED WATERS AROUND 4 TO 6
FEET...AND THESE WILL SUBSIDE A LITTLE AFTER TOMORROW. NO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 89 79 88 / 10 10 0 20
STT 78 88 78 88 / 10 10 10 10

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Dry weather will prevail today in PR and VI.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
426 AM AST SAT MAY 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY THEN
ERODE AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVR THE WRN CARIB PROGRESSES EWD
TOWARD THE CNTRL ATLC. PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES LATE NEXT WEEK WITH
FLAT RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VERY DRY TODAY UNDER A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
AND PWATS NEARLY TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE
MAY. ONLY HAVE MORNING POPS FOR COASTAL WATERS AND NOTHING FOR THE
DAY. SHALLOW MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE TONIGHT AND SUN WITH A
FEW MORE SHOWERS OVER ERN PR AND THE COASTAL WATERS. MID LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO LOSE ITS GRIP OVER THE ERN CARIB MON WITH
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WEAKENING SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW DEEP
CONVECTION TO FORM OVR WRN PR MON.

WRN CARIB UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EWD EARLY IN THE
WEEK CROSSING PR DURING THE TUE-WED TIME FRAME. SIG MID-UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ARE FCST BY GFS AND ESPECIALLY ECMWF FOR MID
WEEK TO PROVIDE LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION.
700-500 MB LAPSE RATES FCST TO BECOME VERY STEEP AND WITH MID
LEVEL DRY AIR IN PLACE SHOULD FAVOR POTENTIALLY SEVERE T-STORMS
ESPECIALLY WED.

TROUGH PULLS AWAY THU WITH UPPER LEVEL FLOW DEAMPLIFLYING WITH
FLAT RIDGE BUILDING TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK. EXPECT FAIR WX
CONDITIONS TO RETURN BUT WITH CONSIDERABLE MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
DUE TO POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLD BRF SHRA AT MOST TDY...MAINLY OFFSHORE NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING. NO TAF SITE HAS MUCH CHC OF BLO VFR COND THRU SUNDAY.
WIND E 8-18 KT THRU SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AROUND 15 KT AND SEAS 3-5 FT MOST OF THE FIVE-DAY
FORECAST PERIOD. INCLEMENT WX POSSIBLY MID NEXT WEEK WITH T-STORMS LIKELY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...BONE DRY TODAY SUFFICIENTLY DRY TO MEET THE RFW RH
CRITERIA ESPECIALLY AT CABO ROJO AND GUANICA GIVEN CURRENT DEWPOINTS.
HOWEVER...24/00Z JSJ UPPER AIR DATA SHOWED A 10-KT DECREASE IN 925
MB WINDS FROM YESTERDAY AND MODEL 0-1KM AVG WINDS ALSO SHOW A 5-KT
DECREASE FROM YESTERDAY. WHILE THE RFW RH CRITERIA IS LIKELY TO BE
MET THE WIND SPEED CRITERIA IS NOT ESPECIALLY WITH A MORE SE
DIRECTION TODAY. THE PREFERRED WIND DIRECTION FOR RED FLAGS IS ESE.
WILL ISSUE ANOTHER RFD TODAY FOR THE SOUTH COASTAL PLAIN FOR
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 77 88 77 / 0 0 10 20
STT 87 79 87 79 / 0 20 10 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
225 PM AST SAT MAY 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THE LOCAL ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A MID LEVEL RIDGE. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO ERODE EARLY
NEXT WORK WEEK AS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSES EASTWARD
TOWARD THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH A
FEW ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS OBSERVED OVER THE LOCAL WATERS.
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE UPPER 80S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH
EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS.

RIDGE ALOFT WILL ERODE EARLY NEXT WORKWEEK AS A MID TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSES EASTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.
THIS EVOLVING PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE A GENERALLY FAIR
AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY
WITH TRADE WIND SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS IN THE MORNING...
AND DIURNALLY INDUCED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOCUSED ACROSS
WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO SUN-MON.

WEAKENING OF THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IS EXPECTED BY MIDWEEK
NEXT WEEK AS AFOREMENTIONED MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSES
EASTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. SIG MID-UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT
FALLS ARE FCST BY GFS AND ESPECIALLY ECMWF TO PROVIDE LARGE SCALE
FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION. THEREFORE...HIGHER POPS WERE
INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY.

TROUGH PULLS AWAY THURSDAY WITH FLAT RIDGE BUILDING TOWARD THE
END OF NEXT WEEK...THEREFORE EXPECT FAIR WX CONDITIONS TO RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION...VCSH COULD DEVELOP AND AFFECT VICINITY OF TJMZ...TJBQ...
TNCM AND TKPK UNTIL 24/22Z. NO VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU SUNDAY. WIND
E 10-20 KT UP TO FL100 THRU SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AROUND 17 KTS AND SEAS 3-5 FT MOST OF THE FIVE-DAY
FORECAST PERIOD. INCLEMENT WX POSSIBLY MID NEXT WEEK WITH T-STORMS
LIKELY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 88 77 88 / 0 10 20 20
STT 79 87 79 87 / 20 10 20 20

[tropicana]

UPDATE Sat May 24/14 345pmET The tropical wave now with axis near 55W or 330 miles east and south east of Trinidad and Tobago is continuing it's advancement toward the west. The system currently is supporting scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms , and should it hold together, will begin affecting the extreme southern region, mainly Tobago and especially Trinidad on Sunday. The southern portion of the wave is already affecting portions of Guyana, with Timerhi Airport having received 3mm of rain through 2pmET..and Cayenne Fr Guiana 16mm.
Overnight, a few showers graced many of the reporting sites, with 5mm reported at Piarco Int Trinidad, 5mm at Crown Point Tobago, 2mm at Point Salines Grenada, 2mm at Grantley Adams Barbados, 4mm at Arnos Vale St Vincent , 1mm at Vigie St Lucia, and 4mm at LeLametin Martinique.
The hottest spot in the region Saturday afternoon was at Piarco Int Airport in Trinidad with 34.0C 93.2F
A strong 1030mb high pressure in the Central Atlantic was near 37N 32W which was still in control of the weather pattern currently across the islands. This HIGH is not expected to weaken this week though, perhaps just retrograde slightly to off the west coast of Portugal.

[cycloneye]

Good morning.A few showers will move thru PR and VI today.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
401 AM AST SUN MAY 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN ON TUE AS SERIES
OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES OVR THE SW ATLC AND CNTRL CARIB
PROGRESS EWD. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD THU THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHALLOW MOISTURE IS INCREASING THIS MORNING OVER ERN
PR AND USVI TO RESULT IN MORE CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS TODAY. AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVR THE CNTRL CARIB THIS MORNING WILL
LIFT NEWD NEXT 24 HRS AND WEAKEN THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ENOUGH
TO ALLOW DEEP CONVECTION TO FORM OVR WRN PR MON AFTERNOON. A
SECOND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVR THE GULF COAST STATES
IS EXPECTED TO DROP SWD AND FEED INTO LONGWAVE TROUGH OVR THE SW
ATLC/CNTRL CARIB. THIS FEATURE WILL HELP AMPLIFY LONGWAVE TROUGH
WITH A CLOSED LOW POSSIBLY FORMING NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS TUE. SIG
MID-UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ARE FCST BY GFS AND ECMWF OVER PR
TUE-WED AS CLOSED LOW AND TROUGH AXIS TRAVERSE THE REGION. THIS
WILL RESULT IN SIG MID LEVEL COOLING WITH SHOWERS AND T-STORMS
BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS OVR WRN PR TUE AND WED AFTERNOONS. GIVEN
DEGREE OF MID LEVEL COOLING AND PRESENCE OF MID-LEVEL DRY
AIR...T-STORMS BOTH TUE AND WED AFTERNOONS MAY BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE AND PRODUCE HAIL.

AS TROUGH AXIS WEAKENS AND PULLS AWAY THU HEIGHTS ALOFT RISE
RAPIDLY LEADING TO A DRYING AND WARMING TREND. BY THE END OF THE WEEK...
MODELS SHOW A STRONG AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATING THE
CNTRL AND ERN CARIB SEA. LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE FROM THE SE
LEADING TO VERY WARM TEMPERATURES TO START THE MONTH OF JUNE.

&&

.AVIATION...CONT VFR XCP IN SLGT CHC SHRA THRU MON. WINDS BLO FL150
E 10-20 KT THRU MON.


&&

.MARINE...WINDS AROUND 15 KT AND SEAS 3-5 FT. NO SIG CHANGE
EXPECTED FROM THAT UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND WHEN WINDS STRENGTHEN TO
NEAR 20 KT. T-STORMS XPCD MON-WED OVER MONA PASSAGE MAY PRODUCE
FREQ LIGHTNING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 77 88 77 / 10 30 30 20
STT 86 78 86 78 / 10 30 30 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
204 PM AST SUN MAY 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER HISPANIOLA..WILL MOVE EAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH CLOUDS DOMINATED THE LOCAL REGION TODAY.
SHOWERS MOVED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE
MORNING HOURS...WITH SOME AFFECTING BRIEFLY THE SAN JUAN METRO
AREA. LATER...LIGHT SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR
SECTION OF PUERTO RICO. TRADE WINDS BROUGHT THESE SHOWERS TO THE
LOCAL AREA FROM THE EAST. FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED...AS THESE SHOWERS ARE MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD.

THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE WHICH WILL CONTROL THE LOCAL REGION...IS
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WAS LOCATED THIS AFTERNOON OVER
HISPANIOLA. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST AND WILL BE LOCATED IN A
FAVORABLE POSITION...TO DESTABILIZE THE LOCAL ATMOSPHERE. THIS
SCENARIO...IN COMBINATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL
EFFECTS..PROMISE TO BRING ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION BY MID
WEEK...MAINLY ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE EXCEPT FOR BRIEF SHRA LOWERING
CEILINGS/VSBL UNTIL 25/22Z IN THE VICINITY OF TJPS...TJBQ AND TJMZ
AND LOCAL ISLANDS. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION POSSIBLE. WINDS BLO FL150
E 10-20 KT THRU MON.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 17 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 88 77 88 / 30 30 20 20
STT 78 86 78 86 / 30 30 20 20

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Variable weather between sun and scattered showers is expected today in PR and VI.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
521 AM AST MON MAY 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS HISPANIOLA
INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...WITH A SUBTROPICAL JET MAXIMA ROUNDING
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND NOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS
WHICH WILL MOVE OVER THE LOCAL AREA TODAY. THIS PATTERN WILL PLACE THE
REGION IN AN AREA OF WEAK DIVERGENCE...AND PROVIDE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
ALOFT FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MEANWHILE IN THE LOW LEVELS...THE BROAD
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWARDS ACROSS REGION FROM THE NORTH
CENTRAL ATLANTIC...WILL MAINTAIN EAST SOUTHEAST TRADE WINDS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA...THEN TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY BY MID WEEK. AT LEAST
UNTIL WEDNESDAY...THE PERSISTENT EASTERLIES WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT
OCCASIONAL SURGES OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...ACCOMPANYING
A SERIES OF WEAKLY INDUCED LOW LEVEL PERTURBATIONS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE MAIN FEATURE TO INFLUENCE THE LOCAL WEATHER CONDITIONS
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...IS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND SHIFT EASTWARDS TODAY. THIS SCENARIO...IN
COMBINATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL EFFECTS..ALONG WITH AVAILABLE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION... WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO CREATE PERIODS
OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE ISLANDS AND
SURROUNDING WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WHILE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
PASSING SHOWERS WILL BE MAINLY OVER PARTS OF EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...MOST OF THE CONVECTION DURING THE DAY SHOULD BE
FOCUSED OVER THE WEST AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...WITH LESSER
ACTIVITY OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS EACH DAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY THE LATTER PART OF THE
WORK WEEK...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND BE
REPLACED BY A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WHICH WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN.

&&

.AVIATION...PASSING SHRA WILL CAUSE VCSH ACROSS TIST...TISX AND TJSJ
THIS MORNING. SOME -SHRA MAY CAUSE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS
AS THEY PASS BY. SFC WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE EAST AT AROUND 10
KTS UNTIL 26/12Z...INCREASING UP TO AROUND 15KTS THEREAFTER WITH SEA
BREEZE VARIATIONS. AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAY CAUSE VCSH/VCTS AT
TJMZ...AND TJBQ WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS ARE TO REMAIN AT 17 KNOTS OR LESS AND 5
FT OR LESS RESPECTIVELY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. PLEASE REFER TO
THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE WFO SAN JUAN FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 77 88 77 / 40 30 20 20
STT 86 78 86 78 / 50 30 20 20