ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[Hammy]

As far as the warm pool goes, it appears that it's become steady state as the +5C area is staying about the same, as are the rest of it, and if anything is getting stronger again as it has begun to extend further west.

[Ntxw]

Last TAO/TRITON update before the update tomorrow, any guesses? End to end this is the most expansive 1C area since 2010 (09 Nino). 2012 had a quick burst of it in mid August however it was confined to a smaller area.



Remember Nino 3.4 is bound by roughly 120W-170W, 5N/5S

[Kingarabian]

0.6.

[Yellow Evan]

I think they'll either keep it at .5 or raise it to .6 .

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Thinking very likely that we will see steadier warming in Niño 3.4 which would make it declared most likely by the start of June or late May. Seeing 0.5-0.9°C in the next weeks. In a few hours most likely at 0.6 or 0.7.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Last TAO/TRITON update before the update tomorrow, any guesses? End to end this is the most expansive 1C area since 2010 (09 Nino). 2012 had a quick burst of it in mid August however it was confined to a smaller area.



Remember Nino 3.4 is bound by roughly 120W-170W, 5N/5S

We are having a larger 1C than 2012 and we are having it 3 months before!

I also wonder when could the El Niño intensify to moderate.

[cycloneye]

The weekly CPC update text is released later this morning but the graphic is updated a few hours before and it shows Nino 3.4 remaining at +0.5C.

[Ntxw]

The weekly CPC update text is released later this morning but the graphic is updated a few hours before and it shows Nino 3.4 remaining at +0.5C

Despite this, and the buoys the ENSO updated index shows Nino 3.4 dropping down to 0.4C. 1+2 went up a litte, the rest remained the same. . Perhaps the CPC uses another measuring source that we don't know of?

[NDG]

It makes sense for Nino 3.4 to have slowed down on warming so much with the SOI 30 day average index being positive for a month now.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

It makes sense for Nino 3.4 to have slowed down on warming so much with the SOI 30 day average index being positive for a month now.

SOI and SST anomalies have no correlation at all. We had a higher SOI during the 2009 el Niño.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Absolutely surprising. The daily anomalies for nearly each day of the entire week were well above +0.5ºC. I am not surprised though with Niño 1+2 as it has started to go down.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

We could see a higher reading in the next updates. Niño regions are starting to warm back. 1997 had this blip too, at the same week and update. Niño 1+2 is in an area of westerlies which is fontributing back to warming there.


FYI, the cooling is due to strengthened trade winds and enhanced easterlies brought by the negative phase of the MJO. I'm not sure, but this also is one of the reasons why the SOI is higher which makes TAHITI having higher pressures and Darwin near normal. We could later see massive warming when the MJO arrives, which may lead to the declaration of the El Niño by the CPC.

[NDG]

It makes sense for Nino 3.4 to have slowed down on warming so much with the SOI 30 day average index being positive for a month now.

SOI and SST anomalies have no correlation at all. We had a higher SOI during the 2009 el Niño.

You can't say that, 2009 El nino remained weak during the late summer until the SOI really started tanking into negative values in fall of 2009, so IMO there is a correlation.

[Ntxw]

Absolutely surprising. The daily anomalies for nearly each day of the entire week were well above +0.5ºC. I am not surprised though with Niño 1+2 as it has started to go down.

I'm not at odds if 3.4 slowed warming. What NDG said has some validity not just because of SOI but because MJO and winds as well were not optimal for big warming at 3.4. What I want to know is what CPC uses because it doesn't match what buoys or daily's meaning they use something else to calculate. However my post about 0.4C is not final until the update comes out, it's changed before vs the source from their site. But if it is, I'd like to know what they use that makes it different.

[Ntxw]

The weekly CPC update text is released later this morning but the graphic is updated a few hours before and it shows Nino 3.4 remaining at +0.5C

Despite this, and the buoys the ENSO updated index shows Nino 3.4 dropping down to 0.4C. 1+2 went up a litte, the rest remained the same. . Perhaps the CPC uses another measuring source that we don't know of?

Update came out, and this is final 0.4C at 3.4. Only 1+2 came out with a bump up (doesn't match daily's or buoys which had cooling)

[cycloneye]

Here is the Mid-May updates of the models and the % of El Nino. What is unanimous is none of the models forecast a strong El Nino thru the forecast period for the next 6 months. The % of El Nino for ASO went a tad down from 70% in the Mid April update to 67% now.

http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/c ... asts/enso/

[xtyphooncyclonex]

It makes sense for Nino 3.4 to have slowed down on warming so much with the SOI 30 day average index being positive for a month now.

SOI and SST anomalies have no correlation at all. We had a higher SOI during the 2009 el Niño.

You can't say that, 2009 El nino remained weak during the late summer until the SOI really started tanking into negative values in fall of 2009, so IMO there is a correlation.

2004 was the weakest on record and had nearly the same 30 day SOI as 1997 at below -25.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

The weekly CPC update text is released later this morning but the graphic is updated a few hours before and it shows Nino 3.4 remaining at +0.5C

Despite this, and the buoys the ENSO updated index shows Nino 3.4 dropping down to 0.4C. 1+2 went up a litte, the rest remained the same. . Perhaps the CPC uses another measuring source that we don't know of?

Update came out, and this is final 0.4C at 3.4. Only 1+2 came out with a bump up (doesn't match daily's or buoys which had cooling)

Indeed.
DATE 1+2 3 3.4 4
07MAY2014 +1.2 +0.6 +0.5 +0.8
14MAY2014 +1.3 +0.6 +0.4 +0.8

NIÑO 4 and NIÑO 3 remain the same though.

[cycloneye]

CPC Weekly update of 5/19/14

Nino 3.4 went down slightly to +0.4C.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Some very warm anomalies at equatorial 90E or part of Niño 1+2.