#4672 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sat May 31, 2014 8:17 pm
dexterlabio wrote:What's happening right now is not a step back but is actually maintaining what was done in the past few months... It only needs to be maintained for another month or two for this El Nino to be declared official.
From the very start a super El Nino was not guaranteed, we just noticed how the first months of this year resembled that of 1997 with the strong WWB and large subsurface warm pool at that early. I don't know if it's just me but I think this year is similar to the 1991 El Nino. Signs of EN (warm EPac SST's) showed up early that year and first ONI value at El Nino threshold was observed in AMJ....but unlike other strong El Nino years, it only became moderate at its peak..
I know El Nino can be beneficial to those areas in the Americas (Texas, CA) which experienced drought...but it's still best not to wish for a super strong one.
1991 was a strong El Niño actually. Anomalies peaked at +2.0°C in CPC data.
One thing about the 1991 event was that it was a modoki El Niño which transitioned into a traditional El Niño. Something that event did not have was that the very warm Niño anomalies existed early, like 1997 and 2014. My guess is that this would be a mix of the 1997 and 1991 events but I don't want an extreme El Niño because it brings SE Asia, NE Brazil, The Midwest, Extreme SE Africa and Australia very dry weather.
A likely El Niño scenario IMO is a mix of the 1997 event which had unusually warm anomalies over the Niño 1 and 2 regions and a very warm PDO like 2014; the 1982 event, which developed much like 2014, slowly then eventually very rapidly later on; the 1991 event which a volcano had a major eruption over the WPac and the SST pattern, not in 1 and 2 Niño regions but in 3, 3.4 & 4 regions are having a resemblance and the event had the first 0.5 anomaly at roughly the same day; and 2009, the most recent event but in the same cold PDO era. 2014 has very warm PDO on a cold PDO era, like 1972.
Last edited by
xtyphooncyclonex on Sat May 31, 2014 8:37 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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trying to stay positive. atlantic is just not the place to be if your looking for bonified tc.
I am way less enthusiastic about it now that i wouldn't be surprised if this turns out to be a weak el nino.
