Off SE U.S coast (Is Invest 91L)

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northjaxpro
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#21 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Jun 26, 2014 9:43 am

WPBWeather wrote: But isn't that just a picture of the sheer, and not a movie? Sheer can change from day to day--so persistence is not forever


Sure, things can change absolutely. But, during El Nino, generally the North Atlantic basin is not conducive to development across the MDR and the Caribbean.

Now, there may be times when we see shear relax enough to allow conditions to become marginally conducive in some areas of the basin away from the MDR such as GOM and off the SE U.S. coast. Overall, I am anticpating shear to be mostly hostile this season, which will really put the whammy on systems trying to develop across the MDR. This is why the odds for the potential for homegrown systems are rather good for this season.
Last edited by northjaxpro on Thu Jun 26, 2014 11:38 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Re:

#22 Postby wxman57 » Thu Jun 26, 2014 10:34 am

WPBWeather wrote:But isn't that just a picture of the sheer, and not a movie? Sheer can change from day to day--so persistence is not forever.


Levi's website (tropicaltidbits.com) has the GFS-projected wind shear out to 16 days. Here's a map valid for the time the Euro is developing the low along the Mid Atlantic Coast:

Image
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#23 Postby SeGaBob » Thu Jun 26, 2014 10:37 am

Saw this in the discussion this morning...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1052 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT AS A SURFACE
TROUGH REMAINS INLAND. THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE WILL THEN BE A WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL DRIFT INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND LINGER
IN THE VICINITY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE LOW WILL SINK SOUTHWARD OFF THE
FLORIDA COAST AND DISSIPATE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN TO THE REGION THEREAFTER.
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Re:

#24 Postby wxman57 » Thu Jun 26, 2014 10:41 am

SeGaBob wrote:Saw this in the discussion this morning...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1052 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT AS A SURFACE
TROUGH REMAINS INLAND. THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE WILL THEN BE A WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL DRIFT INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND LINGER
IN THE VICINITY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE LOW WILL SINK SOUTHWARD OFF THE
FLORIDA COAST AND DISSIPATE EARLY NEXT WEEK. SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN TO THE REGION THEREAFTER.


That's the same feature the ECMWF develops a few days later as it races NNE up the East U.S. Coast.
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Re: Off SE U.S coast?

#25 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 26, 2014 12:28 pm

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU JUN 26 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

An area of low pressure could form and linger off of the
southeastern coast of the United States by late this weekend or
early next week. Some development of this system is possible if it
remains over water.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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Re: Off SE U.S coast?

#26 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 26, 2014 1:37 pm

Hey folks,UKMET joins the party.

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 31.4N 79.7W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 30.06.2014 31.4N 79.7W WEAK

00UTC 01.07.2014 30.2N 80.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 01.07.2014 30.2N 79.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 02.07.2014 29.6N 80.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 02.07.2014 29.4N 79.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


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Re: Off SE U.S coast?

#27 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 26, 2014 1:40 pm

GFS ensembles are a little bit more bullish.

Image
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#28 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Jun 26, 2014 1:48 pm

So much is going to depend if the Low Pressure area, should it come to fruition, can evolve even off the coast. Generally, the models are zeroing in on the potential of the Low Pressure area developing in the vicinity near or off the SC coast. We may be looking at a potential where the Low may form just inland from the coast or hug the coastline, as some model runs have showed. A difference of 50 -100 miles either way could make a huge difference with this potential Low Pressure system in the coming days.
Last edited by northjaxpro on Thu Jun 26, 2014 1:53 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Off SE U.S coast?

#29 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 26, 2014 1:53 pm

The low pressure as of Thursday afternoon is over Alabama moving east.

Image
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#30 Postby Hurricaneman » Thu Jun 26, 2014 1:55 pm

This is already looking quite organized and wouldn't be surprised if this gets an invest designation before it moves offshore if it maintains said organization

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#31 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Jun 26, 2014 1:56 pm

:uarrow: Yep cycloneye it is. Just a question as to whther it will have enough push (forward motion eastward) to get off the coast of SC in the next couple of days. It will be interesting to track it.
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Re: Off SE U.S coast?

#32 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 26, 2014 2:09 pm

12z ECMWF has low that develops and rides up just off east coast.

Image

Image
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Re: Off SE U.S coast?

#33 Postby tolakram » Thu Jun 26, 2014 2:47 pm

Euro at 240 hours showing a pretty deep storm.

Image

Water temps a little cold for that high a latitude, so I wonder if this will be fully tropical?
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Re: Off SE U.S coast?

#34 Postby tolakram » Thu Jun 26, 2014 2:49 pm

What's really interesting is following the euro vorticity forecast.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ecmwf-opertc2.cgi?time=2014062600&field=850mb+Vorticity&hour=Animation

Emerges, dives south and then west over Florida, then back east and deepens just off the coast.
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Re: Off SE U.S coast?

#35 Postby Hurricaneman » Thu Jun 26, 2014 3:04 pm

tolakram wrote:What's really interesting is following the euro vorticity forecast.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ecmwf-opertc2.cgi?time=2014062600&field=850mb+Vorticity&hour=Animation

Emerges, dives south and then west over Florida, then back east and deepens just off the coast.


Very similar to Ana in 1991 where the low crossed Florida from the east and recrossed from the west and ran up near the Carolinas but the main difference is that the Euro sends it up to New England instead of sending it out to sea NE of the Carolinas but one thing I can say is Ana that year was a precursor to Bob which formed in that same area 2 months later so the path of this disturbance with an on coming El Nino could be a precursor to something stronger later in the season

As for what I think will happen to this, I do believe this probably will become Arthur and peak as a 60mph TS before weakening due to colder waters near the NEUS with a very similar path to Ana in 1991 which is more in line with the Canadian
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#36 Postby Hurricaneman » Thu Jun 26, 2014 3:45 pm

I was looking at the area between Bermuda and the Bahamas which is some kind of ULL, could that be part 2 combining with the area over Alabama and start the ball rolling off the SEUS
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Re: Off SE U.S coast?

#37 Postby floridasun78 » Thu Jun 26, 2014 3:51 pm

i see that area too north east bahamas
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#38 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Jun 26, 2014 4:27 pm

:uarrow: That feature is an Upper Level Low.
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Re: Off SE U.S coast?

#39 Postby NDG » Thu Jun 26, 2014 5:36 pm

Looking at the high definition 12z Euro, it shows the vorticity tracking across the Deep South to come offshore of SC as early as Saturday morning, and to slowly move SSE and meander around just off of the FL coast through Wednesday morning, plenty of time to get organized, IMO. The only thing that might work against it is if the UL ridge moves too much westward and it get northerly shear and dry air in from the NE US.
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Re: Off SE U.S coast?

#40 Postby wxman57 » Thu Jun 26, 2014 5:36 pm

The low on the ECMWF from hours 192-240 looks quite frontal.
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