ATL: ARTHUR - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[JonathanBelles]

New Post: http://jonathanbelles.com/2014/06/30/sl ... -activity/

[TheAustinMan]

Extended the radar loop that I posted earlier to better illustrate the elongating and weakening old-LLC and show the new circulation becoming dominant further out of Florida and near the Bahamas.

[wyq614]

Showers and thunderstorms are developing at night hours in Central Cuba and seems expanding, which I think is a little odd. Does this have something to do with 91L?

[capepoint]

multiple vortices all revolving around each other like most of the day, does look like it may be trying to form up further towards the Bahamas, but it's hard to tell by looking at radar at that distance.

[kunosoura]

Love it. Twelve hour cycles of calling it dead, then turning around and lambasting NHC because it isn't named yet.

D-max is going to light this sucker up.

Overall trend looks good. Average motion is as forecast. Nothing has changed. I think this system is just getting started. I'm not expecting a major, but I think a named storm at some point this week is almost certain.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[NDG]

Convection continuous to increase near the COC, which I have it north of the western tip of Grand Bahama Island.

3 hrs ago:


Now:

[NDG]

Showers and thunderstorms are developing at night hours in Central Cuba and seems expanding, which I think is a little odd. Does this have something to do with 91L?

Not at all related, just some typical convergence going on between the north and south coasts of Cuba, it happens here some times in central FL to where it sometimes happens near or just after sunset.

[ozonepete]

Showers and thunderstorms are developing at night hours in Central Cuba and seems expanding, which I think is a little odd. Does this have something to do with 91L?

I noticed that too. It's really hard to say exactly why, but it's a pretty good bet that this disturbance contributed to it. Possibly the westerly flow over the island around the bottom of our low pressure inhibited the daily sea breeze which causes their afternoon thunderstorms and then as this low has consolidated a little more this evening the westerly winds pulled back a little and the sea breeze popped some storms just before the sun went down. There's some upper level divergence over the island (look at CIMSS charts) which may have allowed the late blooming convection to grow upward into full thunderstorms.

[ozonepete]

Nice blowup apparently right over the center, even though there's still shear on the northern side. Starting to look pretty decent. I'm also quite sure this has stopped going south and is either beginning to move N or NW, or will be shortly, albeit very slowly.

[MGC]

Looks to me, based on the shortwave IR loop, that the center is near the large blowup of convection just north of Grand Bahama Island. Don't look to be moving all that fast based on long range radar out of Melbourne. Doubt the NHC upgrades at 11pm. Convection is a bit lacking.....MGC

Above is the opinion of MGC and not an official forecast.

[ozonepete]

Looks to me, based on the shortwave IR loop, that the center is near the large blowup of convection just north of Grand Bahama Island. Don't look to be moving all that fast based on long range radar out of Melbourne. Doubt the NHC upgrades at 11pm. Convection is a bit lacking.....MGC

Above is the opinion of MGC and not an official forecast.

Hi MGC. I doubt it too. They have time. It's a small storm and since the western side has subsidence and less severity and the Bahamas will improve as this starts moving northward, they can afford to wait.

[northjaxpro]

Nice blowup apparently right over the center, even though there's still shear on the northern side. Starting to look pretty decent. I'm also quite sure this has stopped going south and is either beginning to move N or NW, or will be shortly, albeit very slowly.

I wouldn't be surprised if it has stalled and stay in the general vicinity is in now for he next 12-24 hours and remaining well off shore the FL East Coast. It doesn't appear that 91L will get any closer to the FL coast than where it is now.

[HurricaneTracker2031]

Interesting burst near llc... a TD by 11pm est? What you all think

Analysis for 91L and other Basins: http://goo.gl/lpp6pi

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[cycloneye]

Very good graphic of where is the main low. Is under convection.

[northjaxpro]

Interesting burst near llc... a TD by 11pm est? What you all think

Analysis for 91L and other Basins: http://goo.gl/lpp6pi

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

If the convective burst around the LLC holds together for a few hours, then I think NHC will pull the trigger and initiate advisories, probably as early as 2 a.m., but definitely by 5 a.m.

[TheStormExpert]

Interesting burst near llc... a TD by 11pm est? What you all think

Analysis for 91L and other Basins: http://goo.gl/lpp6pi

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

If the convective burst around the LLC holds together for a few hours, then I think NHC will pull the trigger and initiate advisories, probably as early as 2 a.m., but definitely by 5 a.m.

Very unlikely at 2am since that's basically an Intermidiate Advisory. I remember a few years back on here hearing that the NHC more often initiates advisories at either 5am or 11pm?

[Alyono]

TD 1

[TheStormExpert]

Interesting that 91L just disappeared off of the Storm2K map above.

EDIT: Looks like we have TD #1 as of 11pm June 30th. Wonder if the NHC just wanted to squeeze it out to end off June?

Anyways my original thoughts from earlier today of potentially seeing TD #1 by 11pm were correct.

[TheAustinMan]

It doesn't surprise me all too much that TD 1 has been classified given the latest developments. We'll see where NHC puts the center.

[hurricanefloyd5]

Yeah we got td 1