ATL: ARTHUR - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NDG]

Unflagged 58 knots and a pressure of 995mb found by recon, not bad.

[MaineWeatherNut]

I cannot recall a hurricane being called one in advance of actually being one. They may move thier time table up on the predictions, but I doubt they will call it a hurricane before it is actually one.

I don't recall saying that they would upgrade it to a Hurricane before it was a Hurricane. But if the Data supports it being a Hurricane then of course it's a Hurricane! It doesn't just magically become a Hurricane at the exact time they forecast it to become one...

[Aric Dunn]

according to recon.. the wind field of the 60mph has expanded quite a bit.. could be on the east quad a little higher winds

[torrea40]

Recon pass into #Arthur finds 996mb.

[NDG]

So I took a ride to Daytona Beach, I couldn't believe all the people in the water with wave heights easily reaching 6' and entry of rip currents.

[gatorcane]

12Z Euro has a 966mb hurricane passing a couple miles east of Cape Hatteras (Hatteras is in the eye) at 12Z Friday. Time to get those people on the OB evacuated.

Yes I saw that. Looks like even the Euro has shifted west some. I hope folks on the outer banks of NC are taking this seriously and aren't thinking it is definitely going to miss to the east. Better to be safe than sorry.

[dexterlabio]

I don't recall saying that they would upgrade it to a Hurricane before it was a Hurricane. But if the Data supports it being a Hurricane then of course it's a Hurricane! It doesn't just magically become a Hurricane at the exact time they forecast it to become one...

Agreed. A storm could go RI-ing and there's a need to upgrade at the soonest.


Speaking of that, at this rate is there a chance for Arthur to RI, maybe to a Cat2-3?

[gatorcane]

latest saved vis loop. Looking impressive!

[Extratropical94]

I don't recall saying that they would upgrade it to a Hurricane before it was a Hurricane. But if the Data supports it being a Hurricane then of course it's a Hurricane! It doesn't just magically become a Hurricane at the exact time they forecast it to become one...

Agreed. A storm could go RI-ing and there's a need to upgrade at the soonest.


Speaking of that, at this rate is there a chance for Arthur to RI, maybe to a Cat2-3?

The SHIPS intensity forecast predicts a higher than normal chance for RI:

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times the sample mean(11.9%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 7.6%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 4.6%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 3.0%)

[Andrew92]

From the FTP:

AL, 01, 2014070218, , BEST, 0, 294N, 791W, 55, 996, TS, 34, NEQ, 70, 70, 60, 50, 1013, 160, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ARTHUR, D,

65 mph.

-Andrew92

[supercane4867]

Recon is the king but SSD dvorak now supports hurricane intensity

TXNT23 KNES 021802
TCSNTL

A. 01L (ARTHUR)

B. 02/1745Z

C. 29.2N

D. 79.1W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T4.0/4.0/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...BANDING MEASURES 1.2 YIELDING A DT=4.0. MET AND PT ARE
ALSO 4.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...MCCARTHY

[Frank2]

Interesting the recon mentioned the wind field expanded - you'd think considering the latest photos it'd be contracting, but that's just my thought, unless they are referring to overall strengthening...

[Aric Dunn]

Recon is the king but SSD dvorak now supports hurricane intensity

TXNT23 KNES 021802
TCSNTL

A. 01L (ARTHUR)

B. 02/1745Z

C. 29.2N

D. 79.1W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T4.0/4.0/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...BANDING MEASURES 1.2 YIELDING A DT=4.0. MET AND PT ARE
ALSO 4.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...MCCARTHY

in the east quad they might find pretty darn near hurricane force..

[Hammy]

NE quad hasn't been sampled yet and they've already found intensity to support 55kts, it may become a hurricane today after all.

[dexterlabio]

Does anyone think that Arthur looks more impressive than Ingrid at her peak last year?

[capepoint]

12Z Euro has a 966mb hurricane passing a couple miles east of Cape Hatteras (Hatteras is in the eye) at 12Z Friday. Time to get those people on the OB evacuated.

Yes I saw that. Looks like even the Euro has shifted west some. I hope folks on the outer banks of NC are taking this seriously and aren't thinking it is definitely going to miss to the east. Better to be safe than sorry.

They are not yet. Probably too late now to evacute all of the beaches on the OBX. So far the only mandatory evac is Cape Lookout Seashore (all ferry/boat, not too many people), and a voluntary evac of Ocracoke (all ferry lots of people). Also consider it takes a ferry ride THEN an hour to drive up the outer banks to where you can get to the mainland on a normal day. Pretty sure Ocracoke will have issues with people stranded. And also NC12 north of Hatteras is still in very delicate shape, the least bit of overwash will close it. This is usually the biggest week for tourists on both Ocracoke and Hatteras. 24 hours is not enough to clear the OBX this week.

Further down, on the beaches of Carteret, Onslow, Pender counties, no evacuation order has been issued at all. Probably not further down by Wilmington either.
Emergency management here ONLY goes by the latest NOAA forcast points. They base all decisions off of NOAA alone. So until the cone moves back closer/over land, there will be no notice given. This is a draw-back of the NHS moving the cone so slowly after models move.

Also remember that coastal counties in NC normally don't issue mandatory evac orders at all, except for Ocracoke occasionally. They only request a voluntary evac of tourists and people living in low-lying areas and mobile homes.

[got ants?]

Okay, new term to me...what is RI-ing?? Re Intensifying?

[hurricanes1234]

Okay, new term to me...what is RI-ing?? Re Intensifying?

It means rapidly intensifying.

[Hurricaneman]

Okay, new term to me...what is RI-ing?? Re Intensifying?

Rapid intensification

[xironman]

They are not yet. Probably too late now to evacute all of the beaches on the OBX. So far the only mandatory evac is Cape Lookout Seashore (all ferry/boat, not too many people), and a voluntary evac of Ocracoke (all ferry lots of people). Also consider it takes a ferry ride THEN an hour to drive up the outer banks to where you can get to the mainland on a normal day. Pretty sure Ocracoke will have issues with people stranded. And also NC12 north of Hatteras is still in very delicate shape, the least bit of overwash will close it. This is usually the biggest week for tourists on both Ocracoke and Hatteras. 24 hours is not enough to clear the OBX this week.

Further down, on the beaches of Carteret, Onslow, Pender counties, no evacuation order has been issued at all. Probably not further down by Wilmington either.
Emergency management here ONLY goes by the latest NOAA forcast points. They base all decisions off of NOAA alone. So until the cone moves back closer/over land, there will be no notice given. This is a draw-back of the NHS moving the cone so slowly after models move.

Also remember that coastal counties in NC normally don't issue mandatory evac orders at all, except for Ocracoke occasionally. They only request a voluntary evac of tourists and people living in low-lying areas and mobile homes.

They could evacuate the tourists from Hatteras island, that pretty much happens every Saturday anyways. The north beaches should be fine.