ATL: TWO - Remnants - Discussion

[TheStormExpert]

Stinks this couldn't obtain TS status for at least one advisory. I for some reason can't stand these types of TC's.

[TheStormExpert]

There is absolutely no way this is going to survive what it's heading into, but as others have said, this will moisten the atmosphere and I think there's a good chance we'll get the Atlantic Train gets started early this year.....

Even if the African Wave Train can establish itself early or not, your going to need instability and little to no Dry Air and SAL across the MDR for anything to even try to happen. TD #2 IMO is a good example of how unfavorable conditions can even put a huge damper on development potential for the strongest of waves that roll off of Africa throughout the season.

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track.

AL 02 2014072218 BEST 0 128N 488W 30 1012 TD

[cycloneye]

You can see in this saved loop how the system is becoming more like an open wave as time goes by.What I and the Caribbean friends want is some relief from the drought conditions some of the islands are going thru this year and this thing brings the rain.

[canes04]

TD2 is holding on and still fighting. Let's see what happens in the next 24 hours.

[wxman57]

Convection dropping off. It wouldn't qualify for an upgrade to a TD at this point.

[alienstorm]

Has a rather impressive circulation, lets see what happens

[floridasun78]

why do rec plan of day say CYCLONE I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 75
A. 23/1730Z
B. AFXXX 0102A ((CYCLONE))
C. 23/1430Z
D. 13.6N 55.0W
E. 23/1630Z TO 23/2030Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 76
A. 24/0530Z
B. AFXXX 0202A(( CYCLONE))
C. 24/0315Z
D. 14.1N 58.6W
E. 24/0500Z TO 24/0900Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

[Hammy]

why do rec plan of day say CYCLONE I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS

More than likely it's because it is still a tropical depression at the time of issuance, even if it's not expected to be by that point.

[Sanibel]

Small center burst and headed towards better SST's past 60W.

[JonathanBelles]

Convection dropping off. It wouldn't qualify for an upgrade to a TD at this point.

It heard you!

[Miami Storm Tracker]

I know Sat loops are a bit behind but just took a look on the IR nice blow up of cold cloud tops.

[Nimbus]

Its also near the Dmax, the tops will likely later get blown off from shear on the edge of that high.

Looking at the WV model the *current* shear doesn't look very strong so we may see a few more puffs before the shear picks up.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Its also near the Dmax, the tops will likely later get blown off from shear on the edge of that high.

Looking at the WV model the *current* shear doesn't look very strong so we may see a few more puffs before the shear picks up.

Agree with you, on that.

[gatorcane]

Saved IR loop showing the blowup of convection:

[JonathanBelles]

Code: Select all

                       *   ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST       *
                    * GOES AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE       *
                    *         TWO  AL022014  07/23/14  00 UTC   *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
SHEAR (KT)         9    13    16    16    20    28    29    28    17    17     8     6   N/A
700-500 MB RH     42    40    39    38    38    39    43    49    51    52    53    52   N/A
GFS VTEX (KT)      7     6     6     6     5     4     4  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST

From ships, dissipation should occur in 12-24 hours. GFS holds on to it for 48 hours.

[HurricaneTracker2031]

Convection just fired up near the center.. I believe that it will remain a WEAK TD until Thursday when it reaches more favorable conditions near the Leewards on the Tropical Intensity Index and could intensify to a TS.

Read my forecast for TD TWO:http://goo.gl/yf7rWY


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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[ConvergenceZone]

All this means is that the Atlantic is getting more moist and wouldn't be surprised if we have much more activity than previously anticipated this year....I have a feeling the Atlantic Storm Train is getting ready to go into full gear, probably only a couple of weeks away now...........

[alienstorm]

A couple of items here:

1) convection re firing near or over the center
2) Strong tight circulation
3) Slow down forward speed

Still has a lot of negative things to overcome mainly dry air, but the system is small and it has surprised us a bit including the NHC. Not saying it will survived but looks more likely now than it did earlier.

[Alyono]

its accelerated. That is why convection is now over the "center" not to the west of it

One thing that is often said here in error is that a wave encountering easterly shear needs to slow down. That makes little sense as easterly shear means the upper winds are moving faster than the vortex. If the vortex accelerates, the shear is reduced