ATL: BERTHA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hammy]

Who thinks we will see a 5PM upgrade to TD3?

given the extremely shallow (and weakening) convection I doubt it'll even be upgraded before tomorrow afternoon at this point.

[Blown Away]

Yet another unprofessional tweet from a local met here in WPB, FL

--Tweet Removed--

How is that unprofessional? He is keeping the hype down, for all the right reasons. Please stop bashing meteorologists doing their jobs.

I listen to everything Sandra says...

[Dave C]

Sunnyday ......How about " exit stage right"

[cycloneye]

Ok folks,let's not get into discussions about persons but let's continue to focus on the topic on hand and that is 93L.

[sunnyday]

To Dave C: I love that idea. From now on, let's say "exit stage right" instead! lol

[blp]

Question for the Pros: What impact is that low in the Central Atlantic that is featured on the models between the Bermuda and Azores High going to have on the eventual track of this thing because it seems to be sandwiched in between and I wonder if it may nudge the Bermuda High further west.

[cycloneye]

Latest Microwave pass doesn't look too bad.

[torrea40]

Latest Microwave pass doesn't look too bad.

http://oi58.tinypic.com/286wb3n.jpg

Maybe close to TD status based on satellite??????

[jlauderdal]

Yet another unprofessional tweet from a local met here in WPB, FL

--Tweet Removed--

How is that unprofessional? He is keeping the hype down, for all the right reasons. Please stop bashing meteorologists doing their jobs.

I listen to everything Sandra says...

did she sound the all clear for florida like john morales?

[gatorcane]

Saved image vis floater loop, with the sun setting out there. Structure looks great, lacking convection though. Also seems to be losing a little latitude still and no WNW movement apparent:

[MGC]

93L has a good circulation, just lacking convection. The dry air appears to be currently holding 93L in check. Hope the disturbance brings some good rains to the islands and little else.....MGC

[gatorcane]

Question for the Pros: What impact is that low in the Central Atlantic that is featured on the models between the Bermuda and Azores High going to have on the eventual track of this thing because it seems to be sandwiched in between and I wonder if it may nudge the Bermuda High further west.

Good question, not sure. But here is a quote from one of our professional mets from yesterday afternoon that may help where he mentions this low:

Folks, the short term upper-level pattern is very complex as depicted by the GFS. Its forecast reveals an extreme amplification of the upper-level flow (200mb) over the Northern Atlantic as ridging builds downstream of the strong trough over the Eastern coast of N.A... Consequently the cutoff low near the Azores gets spit off to the west and over the heart of the Atlantic. These solutions are notoriously difficult to forecast and depending on how much/where the mid-latitude wave train amplifies and where the resultant PV streamer goes, there will be significant ramifications in the mid-long range forecast. So in my opinion, I wouldn't put too much stock (even less than normal) into any 5+ day model forecast. Of immediate concern is the threat this system can pose to the northern Lesser Antilles.

[Alyono]

If this doesn't get some convection soon, it is almost certain to lose the structure.

Development chances are most certainly decreasing as environmental conditions will only become more hostile as this approaches the islands from a large scale perspective

[blp]

Question for the Pros: What impact is that low in the Central Atlantic that is featured on the models between the Bermuda and Azores High going to have on the eventual track of this thing because it seems to be sandwiched in between and I wonder if it may nudge the Bermuda High further west.

Good question, not sure. But here is a quote from one of our professional mets from yesterday afternoon that may help where he mentions this low:

Folks, the short term upper-level pattern is very complex as depicted by the GFS. Its forecast reveals an extreme amplification of the upper-level flow (200mb) over the Northern Atlantic as ridging builds downstream of the strong trough over the Eastern coast of N.A... Consequently the cutoff low near the Azores gets spit off to the west and over the heart of the Atlantic. These solutions are notoriously difficult to forecast and depending on how much/where the mid-latitude wave train amplifies and where the resultant PV streamer goes, there will be significant ramifications in the mid-long range forecast. So in my opinion, I wouldn't put too much stock (even less than normal) into any 5+ day model forecast. Of immediate concern is the threat this system can pose to the northern Lesser Antilles.

Thanks Gator that is a good post about what I thought looks like a complex setup.

[NDG]

Another look at the latest microwave pass. Great structure with plenty of LL banding, just needs the deep convection near its COC.

[beoumont]

I'm understandably biased because I work in the storm preparedness business, and live in South Florida. But answering your question, it's unprofessional and just plain wrong to give people reassurance that this isn't going to affect them, at this point in time. Maybe later in the week when the system evolves, that'd be an appropriate reassurance. But not now.

Professional people understand the limitations of their field of study, and their own abilities, and encourage people to stay tuned, not tune out. All it takes is ONE FORECASTER with ONE TWEET saying "not a threat" and a few people will tune out. I know, because I work with these people all day long. "Oh, <meteorologist on channel x said it won't affect us>" blah blah blah. People believe what the TV tells them.

These mets downplaying risk should wait a few more days before doing so.

I agree with your post. I guess some of these TV weather folks feel that they only want to bring "good news" to their viewers (either their personal preference, or requested by their producers) - plus are not educated intensively in the tropical area of meteorology. There are only a few met. schools that teach tropical.

I recall very well the Miami Channel 7 weather guy on Friday evening, August 21, 1992 reassuring his audience that tropical storm Andrew should continue moving WNW-NW, far at sea, parallel to the Bahamas over the weekend, and not to worry about any weekend activities they had planned. The next morning the short term 200 mb and 500 mb. progs. replaced the weakness off the east coast with a strong High just off the coast of N. Carolina - which verified, and forced the storm westward and enhanced rapid intensification. Late Sunday evening and before dawn Monday Cat. #5 Hurricane Andrew came ashore in S. Miami-Dade County, FL.

[RL3AO]

KEEP THIS ON THE TOPIC OF INVEST 93L PLEASE

[cycloneye]

Down to 70% in 5 days.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Satellite images indicate that showers and thunderstorms associated
with an area of low pressure located about 1400 miles east of the
southern Windward Islands are currently limited. This system
remains well organized, however, and it could develop into a
tropical depression tonight or tomorrow while it moves westward
or west-northwestward near 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

[floridasun78]

Down to 70% in 5 days.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Satellite images indicate that showers and thunderstorms associated
with an area of low pressure located about 1400 miles east of the
southern Windward Islands are currently limited. This system
remains well organized, however, and it could develop into a
tropical depression tonight or tomorrow while it moves westward
or west-northwestward near 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

i see it drop 70 from 80s on five day

[cycloneye]

Something that they don't say is if conditions will be favorable. In other systems in recent past they have mentioned marginal conditions etc.