Tropical Wave just off African Coast (Is Invest 94L)

[Hurricaneman]

Is now a Tropical Wave as is has been introduced at 00z Surface Analysis.

even has a low but could this become something in a few days as the 0zGFS shows

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN AUG 10 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave located just offshore of the coast of west Africa
is producing an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Any development of this system is expected to be slow to occur over
the next several days while it moves to the west at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

[Fego]

Looks like the NHC took seriously the GFS solution.

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN AUG 10 2014


A TROPICAL WAVE STILL IS INLAND/ALONG THE COAST OF AFRICA ALONG
16W FROM 16N SOUTHWARD. ITS MOVEMENT IS WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG
ELSEWHERE FROM 6N TO 11N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 20W.

[cycloneye]

Interesting message by NHC forecaster Blake.

Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 6 h
MJO in phase 2 for a while: 2nd-best phase for tropical Atlantic cyclone formation. Mid-August. Bears watching.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN AUG 10 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave accompanied by a broad low pressure system is
located about midway between the west coast of Africa and the Cape
Verde Islands. This disturbance is producing a large area of
cloudiness and disorganized showers and thunderstorms, and some slow
development of this system is possible over the next several days
while it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN AUG 10 2014

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17W IN THE COASTAL
WATERS OF AFRICA FROM 20N SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20
KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG
FROM 6N TO 13N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 20W.

[northjaxpro]

That is quite an elongated orange circle NHC has drawn up. LoL. I don't think I recall having ever seen a circle that large. I am guessing that because the tropical wave is large and elongated, NHC drawn it up that way. Almost looks like the ITCZ is circled

Well, we now may have our first really good long tracker out there. It is a very large African wave and this may very well eat away a lot of the SAL and open the door for the CV wave train to begin developing out there in the coming weeks. We shall see.

[cycloneye]

Is Invest 94L