Tropical Wave east of Lesser Antilles (Is Invest 96L)

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS out through 192 hours now maintains pouch17L as a low approaching the Southern Leewards. 00Z ECMWF (as posted above develops a TD/weak TS out of this) now and similar to the GFS as far as track:

[gatorcane]

The GEM is also no longer dissipating the low and shows it moving west in the general direction of the Northern Leewards / Puerto Rico then over the Greater Antilles. The run ends with the low in the Gulf.

Saved image, 240 hours from now:

[Alyono]

I'll lose a lunch bet if the Canadian actually verifies

[somethingfunny]

I'll lose a lunch bet if the Canadian actually verifies

Someone was willing to bet you lunch on the GEM???

[Alyono]

I'll lose a lunch bet if the Canadian actually verifies

Someone was willing to bet you lunch on the GEM???

nope... the bet was no TCs in the GOM through the remainder of August. I said none, the person I bet said there would be

[cycloneye]

12z UKMET doesn't have a text for this pouch.

[gatorcane]

The 12Z UKMET is close to the 12Z GEM solution (a little more west) with a 1009MB low east of the Dominican Republic in 144 hours.

[gatorcane]

12Z ECMWF very bullish on development and now sends it WNW of the Leewards and recurves threatening Bermuda...looks like it becomes a hurricane.

[floridasun78]

do look like pouch17 getting moisture into system as move west today

[tropicwatch]

Does appear to have showers building on the NW side of the circulation. That area has been devoid of showers the past several days.

[tailgater]

Is this pouch #17
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... 154500.gif

[cycloneye]

I would not be surprised if this pouch gets tagged as invest sometime in the next day or two if it gets more convection as it has the EC and UKMET on it's side even thou GFS is flip-flopping.

[perk]

I would not be surprised if this pouch gets tagged as invest sometime in the next day or two if it gets more convection as it has the EC and UKMET on it's side even thou GFS is flip-flopping.

I think you're absolutely right.

[TheStormExpert]

The last time the Euro showed an hurricane was with Hurricane Arthur and we know how that turned out. IMO if the Euro keeps showing this hurricane in the next run or two then this means game on! Unless the Euro is suffering the issues that the GFS is.

[floridasun78]

so may become invest next few days?

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT AUG 16 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower and thunderstorm activity has developed in association with
a broad area of low pressure located about 1000 miles west of the
Cape Verde Islands. Some gradual development of this system is
possible during the next few days while it begins to move slowly
westward across the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brennan

[gatorcane]

So the question is when will this become and invest? You got to think it will be within the next day or so as we are seeing some convection and it has model support plus the Leewards are just beyond the 5-day track guidance.

[TheStormExpert]

So the question is when will this become and invest? You got to think it will be within the next day or so as we are seeing some convection and it has model support plus the Leewards are just beyond the 5-day track guidance.

It will probably be tagged an Invest within the next 48hrs.

[SFLcane]

Its got some pretty good spin to it but may choke in sinking air near by.



http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

[cycloneye]

ASCAT pass made at 8:18 PM EDT.