Global model runs discussion

[tolakram]

Wow direct hit on Hispanola from the UKMET. Doesn't the UKMET have the bext track record for cyclogenesis of all global models?

It has been quite a reliable model in the past but it recently took a pretty major SW upgrade.

... and software upgrades have not been kind to the models of late.

[Riptide]

Having the UKmet diverge from the Euro has traditionally indicated that the Euro run was incorrect. This + GFS Ensemble support points towards a 50/50 coin flip of something substantial, imo.

[blp]

Having the UKmet diverge from the Euro has traditionally indicated that the Euro run was incorrect. This + GFS Ensemble support points towards a 50/50 coin flip of something substantial, imo.

I agree with that statement there is still enough model support to keep the scenario alive. If the Ukmet nails this it would be something.

[Alyono]

more like a software DOWNGRADE

For the UK to have any chance of verifying, the system should be organizing now. It is becoming less organized. The model is not worth the paper its output is written on in this case

[blp]

In my amateur eyes I see a small vortex right where the Ukmet initialzes it and that area has good spin right now. It could fall apart in a few hours but it looks resonable that something might get going in this area.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=tropical/tropical_ge_4km_visir2_floater_1&width=640&height=480&number_of_images_to_display=12

[gatorcane]

If the UKMET ends up being right, I think I may become a UKMET hugger after this SW upgrade

[Riptide]

If the UKMET ends up being right, I think I may become a UKMET hugger after this SW upgrade

I don't know what area will become dominant, looks messy currently. 18z GFS coming out soon.

[Kingarabian]

The only model in my opinion that got better was the HWRF.

[Yellow Evan]

The only model in my opinion that got better was the HWRF.

The rest have been about the same or slightly worse (in the GFS's case).

[Kingarabian]

The only model in my opinion that got better was the HWRF.

The rest have been about the same or slightly worse (in the GFS's case).

CFS has actually been doing better as well. But I'm not sure. The EPAC is making every model look good right now .

[blp]

If the Ukmet fails, I can't hold this against it. Practically ever model at some point in the last week has had a hurricane develop only to later drop it. Very complicated setup. The Ukmet has been the most consistent though in showing one solution. So we will see very soon.

[TheStormExpert]

What are the odds of the NHC mentioning this new area in their 8pm TWO?

[gatorcane]

If the UKMET ends up being right, I think I may become a UKMET hugger after this SW upgrade

I don't know what area will become dominant, looks messy currently. 18z GFS coming out soon.

I don't see that the GFS shows anything within 5 days that it is out to so far. What monster it is showing organizing off Mexico in the EPAC though!

What are the odds of the NHC mentioning this new area in their 8pm TWO?

I don't think they will mention it as the GFS nor Euro are showing development

[Riptide]

Calling it now, convective feedback error. What a disappointing way to enter September if it happens per the 18z GFS.

[Yellow Evan]

The only model in my opinion that got better was the HWRF.

The rest have been about the same or slightly worse (in the GFS's case).

CFS has actually been doing better as well. But I'm not sure. The EPAC is making every model look good right now .

Models are just good in the EPAC in general. I use the CFS for long-term favorable indicators.

CFS showed a bunch of TC's in August in the ATL. We have none.

[ronjon]

06z GFs now has two tropical systems in the GOM during its 16 day run. Things look like they will start heating up soon.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014081906/gfs_mslp_wind_watl.html

[tolakram]

The euro now has a system running over or just north of the islands and up the east coast.

[tolakram]

UKMet and Euro developing different waves but both ending up near the same location in 5 days.





source: http://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgen/

[blp]

Big Change on 06z: Last the remaning holdout GFS has not come around and has a nice system that ends up as a hurricane hitting Texas. It takes a more southerly route than the Euro and skips Hispaniola. I think we now have some good agreement on something getting going. Kudos to the Ukmet for sniffing out this general idea first.

[blp]

UKMet and Euro developing different waves but both ending up near the same location in 5 days.

[]http://imageshack.com/a/img539/6985/WNvzd4.png[/img]

[]http://imageshack.com/a/img903/299/Lw8aoE.png[/img]

source: http://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgen/

I think the Ukmet might have shifted to developing the wave more to the west. We will see some of the models still disagree on which will wave will develop but the concensus is growing that something will develop now.