ATL: CRISTOBAL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[northjaxpro]

Deep convection is now concentrated near where the estimated LLC position is currently. 96L is definitely improving and getting more organized this evening.

[NDG]

If we would had been dealing with 96L as a TD already and the latest fix was the actual center the NHC's track would had probably looked very similar to the consensus model they follow, TVCN & TVCA.




The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[somethingfunny]

Right there crossing over 13°N/53°W as the sun set.... just my opinion here....

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

It would not surprise me to see this designated tomorrow afternoon (once recon flies in) if this organizational trend continues.

[chaser1]

quote="floridasun78"]

NWS Miami brings some sanity to the situation:


http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

i here miami live mobile home so watching with you all 96l[/quote]

You stay safe down there, this is really starting to crank! In fact, I'll be shocked if this isn't tagged as a Tropical Storm at daybreak...heck, i have little doubt that it's not already a depression right now

[SouthDadeFish]

Seems like the displace upper-level anticyclone is imparting NE shear over the recent convective burst. Notice the restricted outflow in that quadrant. Also, this microwave pass also infers the possible LLC is on the NE side of the convection:

[NDG]

Latest 0z ASCAT shows no defined LLC, still remains broad but it clearly shows that the northern vorticity is taking over and a more defined surface COC is starting to possibly get going.

[blp]

Ascat still elongated but getting there.

[fci]

quote="floridasun78"]

NWS Miami brings some sanity to the situation:


http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

i here miami live mobile home so watching with you all 96l

You stay safe down there, this is really starting to crank! In fact, I'll be shocked if this isn't tagged as a Tropical Storm at daybreak...heck, i have little doubt that it's not already a depression right now[/quote]

Yes, NWS Miami injecting sanity into the equation. We have seen scores of systems in the vicinity of 96L and many times model runs have shown strong storms coming to South Florida.
We are in a hurricane prone area so every storm or developing storm is a threat until it isn't.
But.....we are on a Tropics website so presumptions run rampant and that's part of the fun.
But thanks NWS for lending some perspective.

[Blown Away]

Possible this could be a Hurricane near PR/Hispaniola?

[ronjon]

I'm getting a little concerned with this storm missing Hispaniola to the north. This thing has the potential to crank up to a major cane in the Bahamas.

[Incoming!]

Hmmm...it looks like I have company coming...

[Blown Away]

Let's hope this doesn't happen... Looks like the 00z model suite, minus the Cat 4/5 and named system details...

[caneseddy]

Let's hope this doesn't happen... Looks like the 00z model suite, minus the Cat 4/5 and named system details...

Ooooh you evil person...Funny thing is, if you look at the latest FIM model, it's track into Florida is identical

[Blown Away]

NCEP has 96L moving through the Florida Straits into SEGOM... GOM not out of play IMO...

[gatorcane]

Saved image showing deep convection sustaining, looks well on it's way. Also it's gaining latitude:

[Blown Away]

Gaining latitude quickly... Missing or skirting Hispaniola looking more likely IMO... Will be interesting to see the future intensity models if 96L clears the big islands...

[gatorcane]

Any chance NHC pulls the trigger at 11PM EST or maybe 5AM EST?

At least we will have an official track and increased awareness to the general public of the Caribbean islands and those further upstream possibly in the path.

For example, if this does end up hitting Florida, we are only looking at about 6 days from now.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[NDG]

Any chance NHC pulls the trigger at 11PM EST or maybe 5AM EST?

At least we will have an official track and increased awareness to the general public of the Caribbean islands and those further upstream possibly in the path.

For example, if this does end up hitting Florida, we are only looking at about 5-6 days from now.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

There's no LLC per the latest ASCAT, so unlikely they will upgrade during at least the next 12 hrs, IMO.

['CaneFreak]

Not a prayer. This thing doesn't even have a closed circulation yet. Did you miss the ASCAT posted above? They will have to wait for Recon to get in there tomorrow afternoon if they even fly.

Any chance NHC pulls the trigger at 11PM EST or maybe 5AM EST?