New Isabel forecast... up the Chesapeake

[john186292]

[quote="HurricaneQueen"]Thanks, hi\\\\\\
hi all,
somber days.
Derek, pls introduce me to the nwhhc, as it is new to me. Is it a for profit company? Are the mets degreed? Not being hostile, just need info to evaluate how much confidence to put into the reports. Thanks, and hope i did not offend with the blunt questions.

Lynn...u said something like, "worse for those south of delmarva"...I have always heard that the NW quadrant is where the worst winds are. The western half, sw espec, is the milder area. but i just an amateur, yet one who has hassled with many canes. so check this out. in any case, use SHIPS MODEL for inland winds and how far inland to flee. Flee far, if you would avoid blackouts.
best wishes, to derek and lynn,
john in new orleans

[Derek Ortt]

NWHHC is not YET for profit, though by next year there is a decent chance that this will be turning a profit.

As for the qualifications, everyone forecasting at nwhhc must have another job as a trop met. The 3 current forecasters (myself, Kozich, and Cangialosi are either grad students or researchers at RSMAS (this is why I have a RSMAS e-mail in the e-mail link at the bottom of my posts)

[Superstorm]

Hi, I live very close to Lowpressure. From my (limited) experience with storm surge/inland flooding, this is what I would prepare for. If Isabel comes our way, I would expect it to be a fast moving, weak Cat. 3 (115-125 mph winds in eyewall). With a Cat. 3 cutting up the Bay into southern Maryland, large amounts of water woud be forced into the Chesapeake from the Atlantic, which means HUGE problems for Norfolk/Annapolis/Baltimore. This in turn would force large amounts of water up the rivers (Potomac, Rappahanock, James, and York) toward their source. A 12-15ft rise of the water level of the Rappahanock would be likely with this setup; this would cause the river to expand west into the City of Fredericksburg and east to route 3 in Stafford. With the swollen Rappahanock being blown around at 90-100 mph for several hours, the next concern would be the bridges (route 1, route 3, and the outer connector). My biggest concern would be the route 3 bridge (Stafford into the City). This bridge is vrey old, work was being done on it this past spring to make sure it was passible. It would not last long being constantly battered by water. Were it to collapse, it would effectively cut off Stafford from the City. The next concern is all of those pine trees, they are EVERYWHERE, and all it would take is 80 mph sustained winds and every last one comes down! If you have a tall one in your yard, it is a threat to your home. If Isabel is still forecast to come our way by say, Tuesday, you will want to consider having your large pine cut down. I hope this helps you prepare.

[HurricaneQueen]

John, my bad! Sorry for the confusion. I should have had a cup of coffee before posting that. Should have indicated NE quadrant not SW. Mea culpa and thanks for pointing it out.
Lynn