ATL: CRISTOBAL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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fci
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Re:

#1121 Postby fci » Sat Aug 23, 2014 3:40 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:Kind of off topic, but there's over 50 pages for this thread, and nearly 80 pages for the models thread. This has to be some sort of record of pages set for only an Invest. :eek:


Just catching up so my comment might be late or repetitive of something earlier; but I recall upwards of 100 pages on invests in the past. There was a 90L that went all the way from near Africa to the Western Carib. And never developed!
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#1122 Postby weathernerdguy » Sat Aug 23, 2014 3:41 pm

Forecasted to be a hurricane.. Maybe the 3rd hurricane for the Atlantic
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Re: ATL: FOUR - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#1123 Postby HurricaneBelle » Sat Aug 23, 2014 3:43 pm

The official NHC forecast only takes it as far west as 77.5
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#1124 Postby srva80 » Sat Aug 23, 2014 3:44 pm

Td4
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#1125 Postby SouthDadeFish » Sat Aug 23, 2014 3:45 pm

NHC track is essentially same as TVCN, but I think a little slower.
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Re: ATL: FOUR - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#1126 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 23, 2014 3:45 pm

Image
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#1127 Postby toad strangler » Sat Aug 23, 2014 3:48 pm

NHC favoring the OTS camp and that should not be a surprise to weigh the more trusted models more heavily.
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Re: ATL: FOUR - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#1128 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 23, 2014 3:50 pm

Read the first discussion of TD FOUR here
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#1129 Postby HurricaneBelle » Sat Aug 23, 2014 3:50 pm

Key phrase from the NHC discussion:

"Given the spread in the guidance and the recent formation of the system, confidence in the details of the track forecast is lower than normal"
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#1130 Postby bahamaswx » Sat Aug 23, 2014 3:50 pm

Hammy wrote:convection to SW is probably resulting from the air moving over Inagua as it's pretty scattered and weak elsewhere around it.


Inagua is essentially a giant salt pan. It's flatter than flat.
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Re: ATL: FOUR - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#1131 Postby meriland23 » Sat Aug 23, 2014 3:51 pm

cycloneye wrote:Image



Given the model trends I expect nhc to shift the track west a bit. Just a opinion though.
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Re: ATL: FOUR - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#1132 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 23, 2014 3:52 pm

Important last sentence.

Given the spread in the guidance and the recent
formation of the system, confidence in the details of the track
forecast is lower than normal.
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#1133 Postby OuterBanker » Sat Aug 23, 2014 3:55 pm

Here we go. In the 5 day cone again. I know little confidence in the cone this far out, but enough to start the hype.
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#1134 Postby WeatherGuesser » Sat Aug 23, 2014 3:57 pm

Finally made it, eh?

After what, nearly a week?
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Re:

#1135 Postby weathernerdguy » Sat Aug 23, 2014 3:58 pm

WeatherGuesser wrote:Finally made it, eh?

After what, nearly a week?

Since Tuesday.
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#1136 Postby tropicwatch » Sat Aug 23, 2014 4:00 pm

Better late then never 8-)
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#1137 Postby AdamFirst » Sat Aug 23, 2014 4:01 pm

Promet on WPLG TV emphasized that South Florida needs to keep watch on this system.
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Re: Re:

#1138 Postby meriland23 » Sat Aug 23, 2014 4:02 pm

weathernerdguy wrote:
WeatherGuesser wrote:Finally made it, eh?

After what, nearly a week?

Since Tuesday.



At this rate it will be in the Flemish Cap when it becomes a hurricane lol..
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#1139 Postby stauglocal » Sat Aug 23, 2014 4:08 pm

Yes! Made it to TD, I'm very proud of you 96L. :D
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Re: ATL: FOUR - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#1140 Postby tropicwatch » Sat Aug 23, 2014 4:09 pm

Convection building closer to the COC.

Image
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