ATL: CRISTOBAL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[artist]

It's definitely dropping southward. I'm just getting more and more curious what the 11PM discussion will say. Though I don't think they can add much right now because they don't have any recent model output that takes the current southward drift into account. They'll probably stick to the same track with a little slower speed and just wait for tomorrows 12Z model runs. Not much else anyone can say right now.

the latest gfz did show, what appeared to me a touch of a drift south.

[gatorcane]

latest shortwave IR, does seem like a slow south drift:

[ozonepete]

The trough is pushing it south or southeastward. Of course it's not a really significant distance southward this can't last too much longer, but it has to slow the timing of the track points.

[HURAKAN]

it's about stationary and trying to organize ... I think people are reading too much into it

[floridasun78]

ok all weatherman say this going move out north and ne are now thinking ok do we have new ball game

[nativefloridian]

Seems Cristobal wants everyone to keep scratching their heads on what he's up to.

[ozonepete]

it's about stationary and trying to organize ... I think people are reading too much into it

Hi Sandy. But I'm looking at the entire circulation envelope and that is also moving southward, albeit not by a lot. I don't see how it will make the forecast points at the times that were given earlier.

[floridasun78]

that be some thing if nhc keep same cone say going move north slowly and ne later in week !!!!!! i bet met in here say that what nhc will say 11pm

[bahamaswx]

Must be some terrible flooding in the southern Bahamas and Turks & Caicos.

[HURAKAN]

I just think people are reading too much into these wobbles which were perfectly predicted by the models, showing the system basically stationary for 24 hours or so

[Alyono]

what about Haiti flooding from the persistent rainband?

[floridasun78]

so nhc wont see low reform to bit south and trough will still get it moving slowly to north and second will gave final move to ne

[crimi481]

Kinda similar to Andrew track scenario. All models had it lifting N and N.E.. but 2 troughs missed it
and ridging built in to its north -send it west. Is possible here.

ANDREW
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/c ... _track.png

** I am not a Pro

[HeeBGBz]

If Cristobal has not gone off with the last trough, will it just sit and spin til the next trough happens along sometime mid-week?

[blp]

I am wondering if we get a split off with one part heading west and the NE part moving of with the trough. Check out the 06z GFS from Saturday.



Now look at the convergence split.



Maybe this was the problem with the models handling this possible split.

[gatorcane]

....I'm really curious what the models will do with these new developments but they won't get initiated with this info until tomorrow morning's run.

As am I, it will be interesting to see how this could impact the model trend (if it comes to pass).

Yup. There will have to be some adjustments. It looks like it may even be getting pushed a little southeastward by the base of the trough. The good news is that the NHC has to explain, or try to explain, what the heck is going on in their 11PM discussion. I will be glued to the screen to see what they think happened and what's going to happen.

The 00Z NAM is the only model running right now out through 36 hours. While it does appear that it will move it off to the NE into the weakness, it has slowed it down considerably from the 18Z run with a noticeable stall before doing so which was not there in the 18Z run.

[tolakram]

Kinda similar to Andrew track scenario. All models had it lifting N and N.E.. but 2 troughs missed it
and ridging built in to its north -send it west. Is possible here.

ANDREW
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/c ... _track.png

** I am not a Pro

That was a long time ago, and models are a lot better now.

The higher rez euro on the Weatherbell pay site shows the center doing what could be a little loop while the pressure starts at 999 and drops to 998. By 24 hours it starts to head NE.

Live IR: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=24&lon=-73&info=ir&zoom=2&width=1200&height=720&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=30

[floridasun78]

Kinda similar to Andrew track scenario. All models had it lifting N and N.E.. but 2 troughs missed it
and ridging built in to its north -send it west. Is possible here.

ANDREW
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/c ... _track.png

** I am not a Pro

i remember Bryan Norcross showing that as andrew was east of fl

[BobHarlem]

Kinda similar to Andrew track scenario. All models had it lifting N and N.E.. but 2 troughs missed it
and ridging built in to its north -send it west. Is possible here.

ANDREW
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/c ... _track.png

** I am not a Pro

Andrew was a fairly straightforward west moving storm that was forecast to make landfall and not recurve, with the gotcha being the intensity at landfall and where (s. Florida).
I think 2004's Jeanne would be a better comparison http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/c ... _track.png

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2004/JE ... hics.shtml shows the official track animation (Very very good example of NHC blowing a track in the same general area Cristobal is in)

But either way, the stall was predicted, so I can't doubt the NHC's current track.

[northjaxpro]

If Cristobal has not gone off with the last trough, will it just sit and spin til the next trough happens along sometime mid-week?

Well, that is the conventional reasoning, provided that the next trough coming in by mid-week will be strong enough to grab Cristobal and if Cristobal will at least gain enough latitude in time to be picked up.