ATL: CRISTOBAL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[RL3AO]

There was nothing going on in Minnesota so the Chanhassen office mentioned it in their discussion this morning.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TOGETHER WITH GFS 500MB WINDS
REVEALED A FASCINATING EXAMPLE OF LARGE SCALE LAMINAR FLOW BREAKING
DOWN INTO TURBULENT UPPER LEVEL WAVES. ALTHOUGH THIS HAS NO BEARING
ON THE WEATHER ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST IT IS AT LEAST WORTH
MENTIONING. THE FEATURE OF INTEREST IS OVER THE GULF STREAM...WHERE
JUST 36 HOURS AGO AN ELONGATED STRIP OF POSITIVE VORTICITY PREVAILED
BETWEEN THE POLEWARD TRANSPORT OF MOIST AIR TIED TO THE OUTFLOW OF
CRISTOBAL...AND THE EQUATORWARD TRANSPORT OF DRY AIR JUST OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. BY THIS MORNING THIS STRIP OF POSITIVE
VORTICITY HAD CONGEALED INTO THREE DISTINCT AREAS OF CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION THAT WILL MARCH OFF HARMLESSLY INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC.

[CrazyC83]

It looks like it is strengthening but looks can be deceptive...

[somethingfunny]

Cristobal is a better looking storm than Bertha

That's very high praise.

It looks like it is strengthening but looks can be deceptive...

[windnrain]

Uh... is Cristobal going to hit Iceland as a tropical storm?

[CrazyC83]

It will be post-tropical long before then but still intense...pressures may drop into the 950s or 960s...

[windnrain]

They JUST changed it on me right as they had a "S" above Iceland. Nonetheless, it has Christobal at 70mph right before "merged with an etratropical low. This sounds to me like Iceland is about to get walloped either way.

[tolakram]

Live visible. Actually looks like a hurricane now.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=37&lon=-65&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=15

[HURAKAN]

looking really good!

[supercane4867]

TXNT27 KNES 281822
TCSNTL

A. 04L (CRISTOBAL)

B. 28/1745Z

C. 37.5N

D. 63.5W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T4.5/4.5/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/TMI

H. REMARKS...POSSIBLE CLOUD-FILLED EYE BUT BECAUSE A LITTLE UNCERTAIN
USED EMBEDDED PATTERN WITH CENTER IN LG FOR A DT=4.5 WHICH IS THE SAME
DT HAD THE EYE PATTERN BEEN USED. MET IS 4.0 AND THE PT IS 4.5. FT IS
BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

28/1258Z 36.4N 66.8W TMI
28/1436Z 36.7N 65.9W TMI


...MCCARTHY

[Hammy]

Given the very similar appearance and speed of Irene in 1999 as it passed by North Carolina (and as we've seen with the inaccuracy of satellite classification) it's likely that this will never be classified as strong as it actually is, my personal opinion would be at or close to Cat 2 right now. (And interestingly the track is very similar except shifted several hundred miles due east.)

[HURAKAN]

earlier today

[CrazyC83]

I agree it is likely stronger than it appears...and only a poor ship can confirm it. My guess is 85 kt (pressure 961mb).

[supercane4867]

Up to 75kt

AL, 04, 2014082900, , BEST, 0, 382N, 598W, 75, 970, HU, 64, NEQ, 30, 50, 20, 20, 1005, 200, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, CRISTOBAL, D,

[CrazyC83]

Its peak intensity in pressure will probably be the last advisory before becoming extratropical, as it should continue to deepen further. It may be 950mb or so by the time it reaches Iceland.

[CrazyC83]

Advisory intensity up to 75 kt. Dvorak does poorly in high latitudes and storms with forward momentum so I would argue for a higher intensity personally.

[CrazyC83]

Also Cristobal at 970 passes Arthur at 973 for most intense storm of 2014 so far.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

The NASA Global Hawk just started dropping sondes.

972mb surface sonde just recorded, 61 knots (70 mph) of wind at 971mb level.

You can follow the mission here (sondes):
http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon.cgi

Actual track data here:
http://airbornescience.nasa.gov/tracker/

"Overview: AV-6 arrived WFF this morning following transit/Hurricane Cristobal collection (83 sondes dropped). Plan is to fly AV-6 again Thur evening targeting Hurricane Cristobal (70 sondes planned). Troubleshooting continues on AV-1."

From: https://espo.nasa.gov/missions/hs3/daily-schedule

[CrazyC83]

With that kind of wind, the pressure would likely be 965mb right now.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Another sonde...

968mb, 25 knots at the surface

Through first 9 sondes. It's moving so fast, and due to northern latitude, satellite imagery does not line up perfectly.

[CrazyC83]

Maybe a little lower still, perhaps 963 or so, based on that data.