Global model runs discussion

[tolakram]

I don't know about you pro-mets, but I'm starting to look only at the Euro for genesis and general pattern recognition.

Let me tell you if I was not so into watching the tropics I would not bother with any other model. Outside of professionals and our group of enthusiasts who want to track the genesis process their really is no reason to show the public any other model because once it does have a system properly initialized it is rock solid and proven time and time again to be the most reliable with track. Cristobal was a perfect example when all the other models were flopping it stayed consistent.

Do I need to post the Debby loop again?

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2012/graphics/al04/loop_3W.shtml

Ironically only the GFS had the track correct in this case, and this was only 2 years ago. The euro may be more accurate in more situations but anyone that relies on a single model will get burned IMO. They all have weaknesses, sometimes known and sometimes unknown. We seem to have a short term memory when a model does well for a few storms. IMO

[gatorcane]

12Z Euro weaker and more west with the second African wave that rolls off a week from now. Looks like it may be a storm near the Cape Verde islands but gradually weakens as it moves west across the MDR.

No development on the wave that rolls off this Thu.

Here is how the 12Z run ends:

[Kohlecane]

GFS shows 3 more Gulf systems through the next 16 days, including 2 powerful ones

Can I Have the Link to this please?

[gatorcane]

Also notice the 12Z Euro is showing a broad low in the BOC.

[Hammy]

What I personally gather from the latest run is that the deep tropics will continue to be quiet through the peak of hurricane season given the downward trend in intensity, and the GFS is essentially becoming 'for entertainment purposes only' along with the Canadian model.

[NDG]

What I personally gather from the latest run is that the deep tropics will continue to be quiet through the peak of hurricane season given the downward trend in intensity, and the GFS is essentially becoming 'for entertainment purposes only' along with the Canadian model.

Not really, the euro continues to show that the Atlantic's MDR is coming alive even though its latest 12z run shows it to be weaker but I do not trust its latest run after it failed miserable with developing Dolly a few days ago.

[gatorcane]

The 12Z FIM-9 is showing some development of both waves like the GFS. I guess that is not a big surprise since the FIM is based on the GFS I believe.

[wxman57]

What I take from recent model runs is a general prediction of increasing moisture in the western Caribbean & Gulf in the coming weeks. That's the area to watch for development. I don't buy the predictions of a storm forming near the Cape Verde Islands. Too hostile out there.

[cycloneye]

I am posting this video from Levi Cowan here as he talks about differences between GFS and ECMWF about the MJO.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/blog/201 ... t-for-now/

[gatorcane]

I am posting this video from Levi Cowan here as he talks about differences between GFS and ECMWF about the MJO.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/blog/201 ... t-for-now/

I wonder if he looked at the latest ECMWF run before making this video as it is also showing something in the BOC by day 10?

[Alyono]

The Gulf system is clearly synoptic scale monsoonal trough generated. May be why both EC and GFS has it

[gatorcane]

18Z GFS simulated IR image shows a very stormy Western Caribbean this weekend...also note the disturbance east of the CV islands it develops and the monster wave rolling off Africa:

[Alyono]

GFS shows a Caribbean system as soon as this weekend. Looks like a TD or a weak TS

[SFLcane]

GFS shows recurving storms with a system moving into central America.

edit..shows minimal ridgeing so recurve of any system down there is a good bet especially if forms at that latitude.

[TheStormExpert]

All I'm getting from the models is that there is potential to see at least two more named storms this month.

[BigB0882]

GFS shows a Caribbean system as soon as this weekend. Looks like a TD or a weak TS

What kind of heading is it on? That is in pretty close range but I'd like to see someone else come on board (Euro) to buy into it.

[floridasun78]

gfs still show system this weekend in sw carribbean let see it happen now not thing down their http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... opics.html

[meriland23]

GFS at 00z has a strong system at 360 hrs hitting Corpus Christi. At this time yesterday it had a strong system hitting N mexico.

[SFLcane]

300+hr model forecast i will pass thanks. European has a weak low in the MDR.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

And by tonights runs will be showing a cat 5 hitting new orleans, then Miami, then new York