Possible new wave over africa? (Is Invest 90L)

[YoshiMike]

oh i gotcha

[gatorcane]

GFS continues to go with development of this pouch and now we are about 3 days away according to the 18Z GFS.

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWO:

A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa
on Thursday. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive
for some development of this system through the weekend while it
moves westward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

[gatorcane]

18Z NAVGEM 180 hours, looks like a fairly large system but weaker than the 18Z GFS prediction:

[gatorcane]

Here is how the FIM-9 18Z run ends at 168 hours with this pouch moving west in the MDR as a tropical cyclone:

[Steve820]

I believe we'll see some development in the long run from this. Edouard, anyone?

[blp]

Further south on 00z run so far 138hrs.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014090300/gfs_mslp_pcpn_atltropics_23.png

[YoshiMike]

Agreed steve, but no way to tell as of now. I know this may sound a little harsh, especially if it makes landfall, but I hope it does develop into a really nice storm. Kinda like Marie but NOT as strong. lol

[blp]

Big difference on this run.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014090300/gfs_mslp_pcpn_atltropics_31.png

[YoshiMike]

Yeah, they all seem to predict very different things from the looks of it. Maybe we just need to wait a few days for it to get off of land and in motion to really Thats just what i think.

[cycloneye]

00z UKMET.



NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 13.0N 22.2W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 05.09.2014 13.0N 22.5W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY

00UTC 06.09.2014 13.6N 25.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 06.09.2014 13.7N 27.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 07.09.2014 14.2N 30.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 07.09.2014 14.9N 33.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

00UTC 08.09.2014 15.6N 36.4W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 08.09.2014 16.3N 39.5W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 09.09.2014 17.0N 42.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

[cycloneye]

8 AM TWO

A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa
on Thursday. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive
for some development of this system through the weekend while it
moves westward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

[gatorcane]

The GFS has trended further west and weaker with the 00Z into the NE Leewards in the long-range and the 06Z a little NE of the Leewards. Still, it does look to maintain TS status on it's journey across the MDR.

The ECMWF kills this off halfway between the Leewards and Africa.

[gatorcane]

Saved image from a couple of hours ago - cloud tops warming which is not a good sign but plenty of convection still. Should make the splash within the next 24 hours:

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS continues to show some possible development from this pouch. Looks like maybe a depression or minimal T.S. but it stays together through 5 days which is remarkable for any wave so far this season moving through the "MDR"!

120 hour graphic below, saved image:

[gatorcane]

A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa
tomorrow. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive
for some development of this system through the weekend while it
moves westward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

[gatorcane]

Here is an HTML5 floater loop that shows this wave nearing the west African coast. It has lost some convection but structure looks pretty decent:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=24

[cycloneye]

12z UKMET text:

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 13.6N 25.4W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 06.09.2014 13.6N 25.4W WEAK

12UTC 06.09.2014 15.1N 28.3W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 07.09.2014 15.7N 30.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 07.09.2014 16.3N 33.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 08.09.2014 16.6N 36.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 08.09.2014 17.3N 39.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 09.09.2014 18.2N 43.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 09.09.2014 19.0N 47.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

[tolakram]

12Z Euro has this again but drops it after 96h.

[WPBWeather]

Looks fairly serious on the TC probability chart:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/da ... FP_048.gif