Thoughts on rest of 2014 N Atlantic Hurricane season

[Hammy]

Yea, I shouldn't have said the last 2 years, I'm talking over the last several years in general when it's been completely dead in the middle of September......
If it's a year where it was busy by mid September, it doesn't apply. What I'm talking about it when it's completely dead in the middle of September, when in actually, we suppose to be reaching a peak for the season, even if it is a low activity season.

Agreed. I've gotten tired of the same excuse over and over. Fact is that every day without a storm is every day wasted.

In 2010-12, those "wait for [insert when]" people were right, but last year proved that you can not get overly optimistic during dead times. If conditions aren't favorable, they aren't favorable, regardless whether it is June or September. Just because we are near the peak season does not mean storms are a sure thing to form.

My point earlier has nothing to do with peak vs more favorable off-and-on patterns. whether it was July, August, October, etc. I don't think we're going to see a busy season by any stretch but you have to look at the cause of the unfavorable conditions--we are in the suppressive phase of the MJO at the moment. The favorable phase is beginning to move into the Atlantic basin, and which should increase instability and moisture within the next 7-10 days (I point out again that the first week or two of September was forecast late last month to be below normal so this isn't at all unexpected). This is not a "just wait another x amount of days and things will kick in" rather than something concrete is there, and is on the way, but will take time to arrive. Each time we've had a favorable phase it's produced a storm, so 1-2 more this month is very realistic, followed by one next month (I don't predict one in Nov simply because we are headed into an El Nino, and the season usually shuts off by that point.)

I'll even put a concrete date on my end and say that activity will likely start to pick up, even if only slightly, by around the 14th, and I will stand by that date.

[ConvergenceZone]

But doesn't the cap verde season usually taper off in September? . I realize that carrib storms and gulf storms are more common, but from I remember, the cape verde season(area of development) is usually the the first to exit?

[Alyono]

wouldn't be surprised if we see few more storms. Maybe a BOC storm this week. Maybe 1 in the Caribbean in October if we get a favorable MJO/Kelvin wave there, and maybe 1-2 in the North Atlantic

probably looking at 2-4 more storms at this rate given we have not seen the expected development to date that appeared likely a week ago

[Hammy]

But doesn't the cap verde season usually taper off in September? . I realize that carrib storms and gulf storms are more common, but from I remember, the cape verde season(area of development) is usually the the first to exit?

That is correct, the MDR is the first to go, though in most (normal) cases this is not until the first week of October. I would say probably Sep 20-25 time frame when the Cape Verde season shuts down (if we have one to start with)

Active or quiet, though, probably 90% of the remaining storms this season will be west of 60 and/or north of 25.

[Ptarmigan]

This is why ACE is a better measure of the hurricane seasons as far as comparison goes--using an example, is a year with 10 storms and zero hurricanes or a year with five storms, all of which are hurricanes, the stronger year? Last year was 6/0/0 by this point, and this year is 4/3/0 so far. A rough calculation shows 21.1975 ACE this year, compared to 10.1175 by this point last year, using BT data, so conditions are certainly more favorable overall. Another note is that conditions were more favorable in June/July than they were after that, as we saw 2/0/0 from July 30-Sep 5, meanwhile this year we've seen 3/2/0 during that same time.

I agree. I prefer ACE over total number of storms. Some seasons did not have a lot of named storms, but the ACE is high like 1961, 1998, and 2004. They also have higher ACE/Storm. 2005 had many named storms and high ACE. However, 2005's ACE/Storm is about average.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

To make it simple we can say both seasons were/are terribly slow. Up til now both have featured minimal weak systems and was quantity over quality. Don't see '14 ending up much different. Might get two or three more weak short lived spin-ups but hopefully it will end soon and we can turn our attention to hopefully a real winter to track.

[MGC]

MDR/CV areas remain hostile, so i don't expect much there, perhaps a rogue system though. I'd watch for development along a stalled front as we transition to a fall pattern. And, as always, the NW Car Sea is a possible location for development....MGC

[euro6208]

Less than 2 months left or probrably sooner due to unfavorable conditions before the atlantic season comes to an end...pathetic season...

Good thing there are other seasons to track like winter?

[Siker]

I mean, of course it's been pathetic, it was expected to be pathetic by all forecasts. Don't see the point in lamenting it when, unlike last year, all of us had low expectations to begin with.

[TheStormExpert]

To make it simple we can say both seasons were/are terribly slow. Up til now both have featured minimal weak systems and was quantity over quality. Don't see '14 ending up much different. Might get two or three more weak short lived spin-ups but hopefully it will end soon and we can turn our attention to hopefully a real winter to track.

Totally agree! Hopefully we can get an actual El Niño in the coming months so that there is a decent winter to track for sure, in addition that could help make next season worth something if the El Niño dissipates by then.

[TheStormExpert]

I mean, of course it's been pathetic, it was expected to be pathetic by all forecasts. Don't see the point in lamenting it when, unlike last year, all of us had low expectations to begin with.

Once it gets to a certain point of lameness it becomes really hard to deal with nonetheless, this season is at that point and is pushing everyone's buttons it looks like. Not to mention the poor performance of the models including the GFS! It's as if the GFS and CMC have swapped places this season, and as of recently the Euro seems to be possibly catching the GFS's disease. Lol!

[tolakram]

Well I tell ya, if 91L ends up being another dud, especially now that the Euro has suddenly climbed on board, the frustration level is going to go though the roof. 91L is looking like a great candidate for a strong hurricane that recurves harmlessly in the open Atlantic. One or two of these is all I want out of this season.

[Hammy]

Well I tell ya, if 91L ends up being another dud, especially now that the Euro has suddenly climbed on board, the frustration level is going to go though the roof. 91L is looking like a great candidate for a strong hurricane that recurves harmlessly in the open Atlantic. One or two of these is all I want out of this season.

The Euro is up to some strange business, I think I mentioned this some time ago but forgot, where it seems to drop storms around the 6-8 day time frame then show up again as development point gets closer (the GFS-esque delaying of development with three consecutive waves seems to have sidetracked me from this point for a bit )

[tolakram]

As far as I remember this is the first time the Euro has developed one of these waves after it hits the water.

I guess tomorrows runs will be most telling.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

A very strong convectively-coupled kelvin wave will be pushing across the Atlantic towards the end of this week into next week. I'd expect to see an uptick in tropical activity as a result (in the Gulf/Caribbean?).

[gatorcane]

Looking at the latest SAT image of Africa today does show several strong tropical waves lining up. If 91l can really get going, maybe one or more of these behind it will get going too and we can get some more storms to form from the MDR?

[MGC]

Indeed, an impressive wave train over Africa. However, as long as the Sahara keeps pumping dry, dusty air into the Atlantic, these waves will poof shortly after hitting the water......MGC

[ConvergenceZone]

This is turning out to be the most boring season to track that I can remember...At least I can look forward to getting slammed with Strong Winter Storms this year here in California........ Go away 2014 Tropical Season........

[USTropics]

This is turning out to be the most boring season to track that I can remember...At least I can look forward to getting slammed with Strong Winter Storms this year here in California........ Go away 2014 Tropical Season........

I don't know....2013 still feels very fresh to me lol. Not only was 2013 terrible in regards to quantity, but I can't remember having a season with such weak systems. As far as this year, we're reaching the peak and the MDR in terms of instability is not looking good for development. We'll see if that kelvin wave helps any:

[Hammy]

This is turning out to be the most boring season to track that I can remember...At least I can look forward to getting slammed with Strong Winter Storms this year here in California........ Go away 2014 Tropical Season........

Never knew three hurricanes was considered more boring than two.

instability graph

I think the MDR is pretty much DOA this year, whatever forms, even in the off chance we end up above the predictions for the season, will be north of 20 at this point.