ATL: EDOUARD - Post-Tropical - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Post Reply
Message
Author
User avatar
Riptide
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 753
Age: 33
Joined: Fri Jul 23, 2010 3:33 pm
Location: Cape May, New Jersey
Contact:
Contact Riptide

Re:

#61 Postby Riptide » Mon Sep 08, 2014 2:01 pm

TropicalAnalystwx13 wrote:Chances continue to look good that this becomes Edouard over the coming days as shear remains light to moderate and the atmosphere remains reasonably moist.

Interesting similarities with 1996's Hurricane Edouard.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Edouard_(1996)
Image
Last edited by Riptide on Mon Sep 08, 2014 2:14 pm, edited 2 times in total.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Hammy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5849
Age: 41
Joined: Fri May 25, 2012 5:25 pm
Contact:
Contact Hammy

Re: Re:

#62 Postby Hammy » Mon Sep 08, 2014 2:11 pm

Riptide wrote:
TropicalAnalystwx13 wrote:Chances continue to look good that this becomes Edouard over the coming days as shear remains light to moderate and the atmosphere remains reasonably moist.

Interesting similarities with 1996's Hurricane Edouard.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Edouard_(1996)
Image


Very interesting comparison, as I was thinking this looks somewhat similar to Edouard when it came off.
0 likes   
The above post is not official and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23689
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

#63 Postby gatorcane » Mon Sep 08, 2014 2:38 pm

Looks like it may be jogging a bit NW this afternoon, looking at the floater. I can see NHC raising the 5-day development % to 70% or 80% for the next TWO
Last edited by gatorcane on Mon Sep 08, 2014 2:39 pm, edited 2 times in total.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Nimbus
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5274
Joined: Mon Jul 19, 2004 10:54 am

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#64 Postby Nimbus » Mon Sep 08, 2014 2:38 pm

Looks like at least two vortex's with this invest.
The one up near 13N that the models predicted is headed for dry wind but looks like some energy might stay south near the ITCZ.
Can't say for sure there is any rotation further south yet.
0 likes   
Top
Alyono
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 6961
Joined: Fri Apr 26, 2013 3:52 pm
Location: Texas Coast

#65 Postby Alyono » Mon Sep 08, 2014 3:05 pm

don't we need something called convection?
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
TropicalAnalystwx13
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2109
Age: 27
Joined: Tue Jul 19, 2011 8:20 pm
Location: Wilmington, NC
Contact:
Contact TropicalAnalystwx13

Re:

#66 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Mon Sep 08, 2014 4:27 pm

Alyono wrote:don't we need something called convection?

It's still in its formative stages....
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Hammy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5849
Age: 41
Joined: Fri May 25, 2012 5:25 pm
Contact:
Contact Hammy

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#67 Postby Hammy » Mon Sep 08, 2014 5:06 pm

Looks like another "move along, nothing to see" system, the convection is pretty much collapsed as it heads into the drier air. I personally think the 48 hour will be lowered to 20% on the next outlook.
0 likes   
The above post is not official and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
MGC
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5885
Joined: Sun Mar 23, 2003 9:05 pm
Location: Pass Christian MS, or what is left.

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#68 Postby MGC » Mon Sep 08, 2014 5:17 pm

91L looks like it will dry up like its predecessors. Odds getting long for a CV system this season....MGC
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 143867
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#69 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 08, 2014 6:31 pm

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON SEP 8 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of
the Cape Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to be
conducive for gradual development of this disturbance during the
next several days while it moves west-northwestward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 143867
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#70 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 08, 2014 7:15 pm

00z Best Track.

91L INVEST 140909 0000 11.0N 23.7W ATL 25 1009
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
User avatar
Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 22730
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#71 Postby Ntxw » Mon Sep 08, 2014 7:18 pm

Puff of smoke :eek:?

Image
0 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

  Help support Storm2K!
 Help Support Storm2K
Top
User avatar
Hammy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5849
Age: 41
Joined: Fri May 25, 2012 5:25 pm
Contact:
Contact Hammy

#72 Postby Hammy » Mon Sep 08, 2014 7:55 pm

It's looking increasingly likely that all the models were wrong on this and nothing will form, given the almost total lack of convection and the rapid decrease.
0 likes   
The above post is not official and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23689
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

#73 Postby gatorcane » Mon Sep 08, 2014 8:03 pm

Latest saved image - on life support right now. Puff of smoke is right! :eek:

Image
0 likes   
Top
Alyono
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 6961
Joined: Fri Apr 26, 2013 3:52 pm
Location: Texas Coast

#74 Postby Alyono » Mon Sep 08, 2014 8:13 pm

This may develop 8-10 days down the road as it is turning to the east of Bermuda
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
pgoss11
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 702
Joined: Tue Sep 02, 2003 3:55 pm

#75 Postby pgoss11 » Mon Sep 08, 2014 8:19 pm

What is wrong with the models?? Don't they see the dry air that's plaguing the MDR this year?
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 22730
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

Re:

#76 Postby Ntxw » Mon Sep 08, 2014 8:35 pm

pgoss11 wrote:What is wrong with the models?? Don't they see the dry air that's plaguing the MDR this year?


Plague is the word.

Image

I think it will pulse like 90L did for awhile though during dmax, wane during dmin. But it's going to need a lot of help.
0 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.



  Help support Storm2K!

Help Support Storm2K

Top
User avatar
MetroMike
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 941
Joined: Sun Aug 29, 2004 8:13 pm
Location: Tampa Bay
Contact:
Contact MetroMike

Re: Re:

#77 Postby MetroMike » Mon Sep 08, 2014 9:24 pm

Ntxw wrote:
pgoss11 wrote:What is wrong with the models?? Don't they see the dry air that's plaguing the MDR this year?


Plague is the word.

Image

I think it will pulse like 90L did for awhile though during dmax, wane during dmin. But it's going to need a lot of help.

Well that graphic is a little outdated there...I see it maintaining the envelope of moist air at least for a while.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Gustywind
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 12334
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE

#78 Postby Gustywind » Mon Sep 08, 2014 9:29 pm

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON SEP 08 2014

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 09N23W TO 16N23W MOVING W AT 10 KT. A
1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 11N AND REMAINS
THE PRIMARY FOCUS OF THE OVERALL LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
SURROUNDING THE TROPICAL WAVE. WHILE THE SURFACE FEATURE
CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE GRADUALLY...THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A WELL
DEFINED 700 MB LOW INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE REGION FROM 05N-17N
BETWEEN 17W-29W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OCCURRING FROM 06N-15N BETWEEN 20W-28W.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 22730
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

Re: Re:

#79 Postby Ntxw » Mon Sep 08, 2014 9:30 pm

MetroMike wrote:Well that graphic is a little outdated there...I see it maintaining the envelope of moist air at least for a while.


It's the nature of reanalysis, it takes time to build data so it's not immediate usually a few days behind. It wasn't a reference to the immediate conditions of 91L but what the Atlantic has been doing for over 30+ days and continues to do so.
0 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.



  Help support Storm2K!

Help Support Storm2K

Top
User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15445
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

#80 Postby NDG » Mon Sep 08, 2014 10:00 pm

Don't worry, I am sure 91L will eventually catch up to an ULL and it will bring it back to life after tracking across the dry MDR, lol.
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “2014”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 128 guests