Thoughts on rest of 2014 N Atlantic Hurricane season

[Ntxw]

We need ACE points. Names is not what we are looking for, a season is re-evaluated and ranked by total ACE. We need several long tracking fish majors. Its unbelievable how slow ACE has been, 2013/2014 combo is currently sitting at 2nd lowest of the slow duos behind 1982/1983. 1993/1994 is third.

To be fair, even if this year were to somehow end up slightly above average, because how how poor last year was, it would still be one of the lowest two year periods.

There are only a handful of back to back years under 50 ACE each. An above average year would raise back to back combo above these handful. We don't even need above, just get over 50 for 2014 would do it. I'm hoping 91L will rack up some points.

[floridasun78]

i see we got new invest and maybe other in boc and we have invest 92and EDOUARD we now peck part season it showing

[TheStormExpert]

I noticed in the last few days things have been attempting to pop up! Though it's still not very impressive by any means.

[floridasun78]

i see we got new invest and maybe other in boc and we have invest 92and EDOUARD we now peck part season it showing

[WPBWeather]

i see we got new invest and maybe other in boc and we have invest 92and EDOUARD we now peck part season it showing

Yes, the tropics did "wake up." Can't understand why some others on the threads did not think it would. Very short memories of how things really work in weather, I guess.

[windnrain]

What's going on with the Gulf?

I've lived on the coast for 26 years now and can't remember a single time two years back to back that the gulf has been so quiet.

What needs to happen this season or next to wake it up?

[WPBWeather]

What's going on with the Gulf?

I've lived on the coast for 26 years now and can't remember a single time two years back to back that the gulf has been so quiet.

What needs to happen this season or next to wake it up?

Um, it is up...

[Sanibel]

There's sick air and a permanent early season-type hostile environment in the Atlantic this year. I thought the switch would go on but it never did.

[euro6208]

There's sick air and a permanent early season-type hostile environment in the Atlantic this year. I thought the switch would go on but it never did.

It did improved a bit allowing for 3 invest and a tropical storm at the same time!

[Ntxw]

Kelvin wave from EPAC is crossing over this coming week to ATL. Question will be what will take advantage? Eduoard is picking up much needed ACE. Ace this 2 week period tacks on 26 pts to the average so we will need a Nadine type scenario to keep pace for that time frame. The Caribbean is a lost cause, it is still being blasted with shear.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

What's going on with the Gulf?

I've lived on the coast for 26 years now and can't remember a single time two years back to back that the gulf has been so quiet.

What needs to happen this season or next to wake it up?

Um, it is up...

Um really, it is? Maybe you mean cause it has some unorganized storms out there but other than that Looks like a typical early fall day out there to me. Front dropping down south, lots of shear across the north gulf and a strung out mess in the bay of Campeche. And I agree with you windnrain, it has been a long time.

[WPBWeather]

What's going on with the Gulf?

I've lived on the coast for 26 years now and can't remember a single time two years back to back that the gulf has been so quiet.

What needs to happen this season or next to wake it up?

Um, it is up...

Um really, it is? Maybe you mean cause it has some unorganized storms out there but other than that Looks like a typical early fall day out there to me. Front dropping down south, lots of shear across the north gulf and a strung out mess in the bay of Campeche. And I agree with you windnrain, it has been a long time.

Well, I guess we can leave it up to the eye of the beholder then...

[HURRICANELONNY]

I would say watch for homegrown and stalled fronts the rest of the season. The CV will not produce anything but waves heading in to the carribean and gulf could be the trouble this year. Just my opinion and looking at the models as well as other factors.

[SFLcane]

@MJVentrice Cue Rocky theme. Entering the ring on the left, big time CCKW to sweep across Atlantic. Watch out for TC development

[Frank2]

It's cheese doodle time (lol): http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... WOAT.shtml

[SFLcane]

Disturbance in atlantic has 60 % chance in 48hrs but conditions are expected to become UNFAVORABLE how many times this season.

[Alyono]

:cry: Disturbance in atlantic has 60 % chance in 48hrs but conditions are expected to become UNFAVORABLE how many times this season.

what Atlantic disturbance has a 60% chance?

[SFLcane]

:cry: Disturbance in atlantic has 60 % chance in 48hrs but conditions are expected to become UNFAVORABLE how many times this season.

what Atlantic disturbance has a 60% chance?

None lol..I was just noting how often '' unfavorable '' has been used in nhc's TWO'S. Lets see if that CCKW moving in can spark things.

[CrazyC83]

One thing different about 2014 vs. 2013 is that few are shocked. Almost every signal suggested a slow 2014 in the Atlantic.

[Alyono]

Starting to think that we are overstating the importance of Kelvin waves.

They may play a role in marginal condition, or making conditions that much more favorable for development when they are already favorable. However, I do not believe, after what we've seen this year, that they will allow for unfavorable storm scale conditions to become favorable