Texas Fall-2014

[TheProfessor]

What's preventing the widespread rain in North Texas? Is there not enough lift? Is it not moist enough? I'm in one of those areas that haven't quite been dry slotted, but have only gotten the tail ends of others major rain fall, we got some when Northern and Central Denton county got a ton of rain and we only got a little bit of that heavy rainfall that Tarrant County got.

[texas1836]

:uarrow: What's preventing the widespread rain in North Texas? Is there not enough lift? Is it not moist enough? I'm in one of those areas that haven't quite been dry slotted, but have only gotten the tail ends of others major rain fall, we got some when Northern and Central Denton county got a ton of rain and we only got a little bit of that heavy rainfall that Tarrant County got.

I'm guessing it has to do with the high pressure. The clouds look great, but nothing dropping out of them.

[Portastorm]

:uarrow: What's preventing the widespread rain in North Texas? Is there not enough lift? Is it not moist enough? I'm in one of those areas that haven't quite been dry slotted, but have only gotten the tail ends of others major rain fall, we got some when Northern and Central Denton county got a ton of rain and we only got a little bit of that heavy rainfall that Tarrant County got.

I'm guessing it has to do with the high pressure. The clouds look great, but nothing dropping out of them.

Right-O. Remember that front from last week? Well, it never went deep into the state and kind of got hung up from south of Lubbock to Austin to Houston. It is that boundary that is serving as the train tracks for any little disturbance coming from the west. Plus we have Gulf inflow and low level nocturnal jet down in this part of the state which is helping add fuel to the fire.

[hriverajr]

Portastorm looks like some heavy rain translating into the Austin area again.

[TheProfessor]

Which really stinks because the front didn't even give us any rain, all it did was mist.

[hriverajr]

Well I am here in Del Rio seeing all that rain to the north, and being teased a bit by rain to wsw

[Portastorm]

Well I am here in Del Rio seeing all that rain to the north, and being teased a bit by rain to wsw

Yes we are on the verge of another heavy rain event. At least this one won't be in the middle of the night.

Del Rio, you might get hit by the stuff west-northwest of you.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Based on what im seeing and the NWS report, Central Texas you are in for one tonight. Rain shield headed your way and they are building. You can see additional outflow boundaries which should kick off more rain as well.

[TheProfessor]

Well, this will be my new profile pick, and if you watched the show you know what this means, this will be up until we can either get a storm to drop a widespread 3 inches of rain or more on us, or when we get our seasons first snow, which maybe in October here ( Yes, I know not to judge anything on the extended runs, especially one so far out, but it's good to be optimistic) so which ever comes first.

P.S I'm hoping its the rain, but snow in October is still good.

[davidiowx]

Based on what im seeing and the NWS report, Central Texas you are in for one tonight. Rain shield headed your way and they are building. You can see additional outflow boundaries which should kick off more rain as well.

It sure does. It will be interesting to see if the rain out west continues to develop as it moves toward our CWA. We have had a decent amount of rain here. The soil is extremely saturated so if we get something tonight or tomorrow morning that brings some torrential rainfall, it will be interesting around here as well.

The NWS extended the flood watch through tomorrow morning. I wouldn't be surprised to see it extended throughout the day tomorrow if we receive some heavy rain moving in late tonight into the morning hours.

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=HGX-N0Q-1-24

[Ntxw]

:uarrow: What's preventing the widespread rain in North Texas? Is there not enough lift? Is it not moist enough? I'm in one of those areas that haven't quite been dry slotted, but have only gotten the tail ends of others major rain fall, we got some when Northern and Central Denton county got a ton of rain and we only got a little bit of that heavy rainfall that Tarrant County got.

I'm guessing it has to do with the high pressure. The clouds look great, but nothing dropping out of them.

Right-O. Remember that front from last week? Well, it never went deep into the state and kind of got hung up from south of Lubbock to Austin to Houston. It is that boundary that is serving as the train tracks for any little disturbance coming from the west. Plus we have Gulf inflow and low level nocturnal jet down in this part of the state which is helping add fuel to the fire.

I didn't think of that but that's a great observation Porta! Plus sometimes it's just luck of the draw, like during the summer when the northern half saw more rain than the southern half. Climo always says southern Texas is always going to be wetter than the northern half as the eastern half is wetter than the western half, as cooler air tends to penetrate the north more than the south but as result dry things out. In the winter it's reverse with the northern half seeing more snow than the southern half. Just life around these parts.

[Ntxw]

Here is the drought maps since 2011. Odile remnants is going to basically wipe out the drought in the Panhandle, West Central,NW, and Central Texas.

2014


2013


2012


And finally, remember this? This was the APEX, this was the desertification.

[dhweather]

I didn't think of that but that's a great observation Porta! Plus sometimes it's just luck of the draw, like during the summer when the northern half saw more rain than the southern half. Climo always says southern Texas is always going to be wetter than the northern half as the eastern half is wetter than the western half, as cooler air tends to penetrate the north more than the south but as result dry things out. In the winter it's reverse with the northern half seeing more snow than the southern half. Just life around these parts.

The only problem with that is our 10-12" deficit of normal rain for the year. We're are extraordinarily dry, even according North Texas climatology.


If that 9" materializes near Austin, maybe Lake Travis will fill back up. That's about the only thing that can be positive from that much rain in a short period.

[Ntxw]

The only problem with that is our 10-12" deficit of normal rain for the year. We're are extraordinarily dry, even according North Texas climatology.


If that 9" materializes near Austin, maybe Lake Travis will fill back up. That's about the only thing that can be positive from that much rain in a short period.

And it's not the first time or the last time. If it decides to rain it's going to rain, if it's not then it's not. I've made numerous posts this year about how one recording site does not dictate for everybody. Whether or not one chooses to look at the full data then there's nothing else to do. It doesn't change the fact that the state has seen tremendous improvement, ask California.

But hey if you want to look at DFW then fine, it did record it's wettest summer in 7 years no?

[ravyrn]

Unbelievable storm here at the PWC in the last 90 minutes. 3-4 inched of rain with relentless lightning. House shaking like we are in a war. Power out.

Hmmm, maybe we should turn the omega block back on a bit? 9" of rain out west is way too much. If it must fall though, hopefully most of it manages to fall in the Colorado's basin and can help the lakes out. Perhaps we should refocus our efforts into dismantling the omega block that seems to have developed over dhweather's place.

[TexasF6]

My fellow Central Texans, I have been cloud reading today? I have some troubling feelings about a coming flood this evening & tomorrow....just a feeling....

[weatherdude1108]

Where the heaviers rain is falling (at 8:10pm) is exactly where it needs to fall for the Highland Lakes watershed to benefit. It doesn't get any better a placement IMO. I can't post a pic, but if you look at radar, you'd know what I'm talking about.

[dhweather]

The only problem with that is our 10-12" deficit of normal rain for the year. We're are extraordinarily dry, even according North Texas climatology.


If that 9" materializes near Austin, maybe Lake Travis will fill back up. That's about the only thing that can be positive from that much rain in a short period.

And it's not the first time or the last time. If it decides to rain it's going to rain, if it's not then it's not. I've made numerous posts this year about how one recording site does not dictate for everybody. Whether or not one chooses to look at the full data then there's nothing else to do. It doesn't change the fact that the state has seen tremendous improvement, ask California.

But hey if you want to look at DFW then fine, it did record it's wettest summer in 7 years no?

And Lake Ray Hubbard is at its lowest level in its history. We are in a death grip of a four year hydrological drought per KFWD, and while I would like to think it will end some day, that day continues to be extremely evasive.

[Ntxw]

And Lake Ray Hubbard is at its lowest level in its history. We are in a death grip of a four year hydrological drought per KFWD, and while I would like to think it will end some day, that day continues to be extremely evasive.

Right, and it's never going to rain again there and the lake will dry up to nothing. I would suggest the populous move to the southeastern states where there's tons of rain.

[Portastorm]

OK, OK ... let's all take a deep breath here and relax.

Extreme weather conditions elicit strong emotions in all of us. It's important to stand back sometimes and examine the facts in reflection of our emotions. I probably am more guilty of letting my emotions color my posts than anyone here. I'm sure you all get sick of seeing Portastorm's weekly winter post of "I got nothing but freezing drizzle." So, I just want everyone to understand ... I get it. But let's also challenge our own emotions in lieu of the facts.