Global model runs discussion

[Hurricaneman]

The GFS continued with developing something in the Caribbean and seems to start developing it around 180hrs and the last few runs have it anywhere from Tampa to Mobile and did the Euro still have it at the 0Z run because if so it may be something that bears watching

Edit: The 0zEuro shows a weak low heading for the Caribbean at 240hrs and starts showing generally lower pressures around 192 which is cause for concern as we have some model support for something forming some time next week in that area

The 12zGFS has come out and the Caribbean system now has Morgan City, LA as the landfall spot, it seems to be narrowing in on the gulf coast but as we all know the errors could be huge and theres still a chance of no development

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[Alyono]

12Z Canadian also has something in the Gulf, though more akin to Dolly

[CYCLONE MIKE]

We are still talking 7 1/2 to 10 days before something MIGHT happen. I know things are slow and nothing really else to talk about but the Caribbean and gulf for that matter have been a graveyard all season and see nothing showing that conditions will all of a sudden change. Look how many times this year has the GFS shown a system in the gulf only to fail miserably.

[Alyono]

Model Uccelleni is becoming inconsistent with the Gulf system. 0Z showed nothing, 6Z showed Katrina, while 12Z has nothing.

Canadian and Euro are more consistent with a weak area of low pressure.

I think it is time to consider Model Uccelleni as LESS RELIABLE than the Canadian in terms of genesis

[Alyono]

And Model Uccelleni thinks that Cape Verde Season runs from October through December

[wxman57]

No Gulf hurricane in the 12Z GFS run. No big surprise.

[NDG]

And the horrific GFS in the Atlantic basin this season continuos, lol.

[wxman57]

Tropical Tidbits has a section below the main model links called “Run Comparison”. I clicked the 300 hr link:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014091912/gfs_mslp_pcpn_watl_comp300.html

Run the loop backwards from frame 8 to frame to see what the GFS has been forecasting for 00Z Oct. 2nd in the past 8 00Z and 12Z runs. Zero consistency.

[chaser1]

Well, that link showing how inconsistent the GFS has been for its consecutive runs really does make a point. I'll be the first to agree that the GFS has been off this year. Now, but i'm gonna play devil's advocate here...., what if the GFS WERE showing decent consecutive run consistency for the period starting approx. 300 hours out or longer. Wouldn't the common opinion by those who favor the Euro be the same?? Answer is yes, and the perception of such GFS model runs would sound a bit like ".... no model can be taken seriously at 300 hr. All thats gonna happen is either the forecast will keep getting pushed back, or that GFS will finally at some point, simply drop the disturbance..". I'm not suggesting the model has been stellar this season, but I think if one were to want to make a more reasonable analysis of its accuracy for forecasting genesis, it would be more reasonable to focus on consecutive runs at perhaps 120-180 hours.

Now, of course the most recent conversation in this thread has been discussing how inconsistent the GFS has been at bringing a monster into the Gulf at around 180 hours, then perhaps drops any intense cyclone on the next run, then perhaps back again but weak and further east or west on the next run. Look, if the upcoming 18Z run brings a moderate cyclone into the NW Caribbean or into the Gulf, and then the 0Z run is still holding on to something developing in the mid term, i'd lean toward thinking "some" low will likely be in the neighborhood in that general range of time. Heck, even if the GFS were to show nothing developing for the next 4 runs, and then suddenly bring a storm back in about 140 hours, that tells me that a decent wave or low might well make a run at trying to develop around that time and place. All in all, the GFS still seems to offer up some indication of possible development in a "forecast package". The Euro, rarely ever does. Once a system is developing, the Euro is no doubt excellent at eventually initializing it; Even more proficient at larger scale steering and shear projections once it has a handle on a storm. If I want a crystal ball however and possibly have a greater sense for any developing tropical system, i'll still favor the GFS over most other models

Bottom line is, most of us here know fully well that there's no point at even focusing on where the GFS might want to take a storm, even at 96 hours.... assuming that perhaps it had yet to develop. I'll agree to disregard mid to long term intensity, i'll ignore any specific points of mid term landfall or track of storm, but even as inconsistent as the GFS has been this year, I dont think one could really make a case for the Euro to have outperformed forecasted genesis.

[blp]

I think part of the GFS problem is that it is overdoing the MJO returning to our basin. The Euro has the MJO going more towards the Indian Ocean instead. Those are significantly different interpretations. Let's see who is right.

[Alyono]

12Z EC shows a TS striking TX/LA in the 9-10 day time frame

[crownweather]

12Z EC shows a TS striking TX/LA in the 9-10 day time frame

Given the pattern that has been consistently forecast of a large high pressure system over the northeastern United States which should lead to mischief to the south and southwest from the Gulf of Mexico to off of the US southeast coast, I think the 12Z EC may be onto something. The EC seems to be gradually coming on board more and more with each new run, while the GFS has all but dropped the tropical cyclone idea for the Gulf. Siding with the EC on this one, given the pattern.

[blp]

In the long range the GFS has been showing on several runs a wave developing around 240hr in C. Atlantic and making it into the Carribean in long range. The CMC and FIM are also showing something in the timeframe. I am unable to see high res Euro. If this were to happen ot would be an usual track as it would enter the Carribean in the beginning of October.

[Alyono]

the CV system is likely Model Uccelleni being Model Uccelleni

[beoumont]

In the long range the GFS has been showing on several runs a wave developing around 240hr in C. Atlantic and making it into the Carribean in long range. The CMC and FIM are also showing something in the timeframe. I am unable to see high res Euro. If this were to happen ot would be an usual track as it would enter the Carribean in the beginning of October.

Unusual but not unheard of: 2 cat #4 examples: 140 mph and 150 mph sustained

[LaBreeze]

Is there still a belief out there that anything may form next weekend in the GOM? Haven't heard much chatter about it and I was wondering if this idea has been dropped. Could use a bit of rain here - I've started watering the lawn.

[Alyono]

big shocker

models now zeroing in on EPAC devlopment instead of Atlantic side

[jlauderdal]

In the long range the GFS has been showing on several runs a wave developing around 240hr in C. Atlantic and making it into the Carribean in long range. The CMC and FIM are also showing something in the timeframe. I am unable to see high res Euro. If this were to happen ot would be an usual track as it would enter the Carribean in the beginning of October.

anything and everything is on the table with the american and canadian models..no track or intensity is impossible when it comes to these two, especially when there is agreement

[blp]

anything and everything is on the table with the american and canadian models..no track or intensity is impossible when it comes to these two, especially when there is agreement

You also have the FIM on board which I know is not saying a lot and the Navgem has heavy convection but only goes out 180hrs. I can't find the high res Euro so I don't know what it is showing.

What is keeping me interested is that in IMO that is not the type of track area where the GFS would show you a bogus system as I would expect it from the W. Carribean this time of year. I guess will see if the GFS continues on its tough season.

EDIT: Just saw 06z run GFS runs it into S. America are you kidding me.

[tolakram]

The euro has not been updating for the last two runs, either on free or pay (weatherbell) sites. I could not find any explanation.