Texas Fall-2014

weatherdude1108 · #461 Postby **weatherdude1108** » Thu Oct 02, 2014 10:19 pm

We got a few sprinkles.

Lots of lightning and thunder to our south and east. Another botched forecast. But feels good now! Front moved through.

weatherdude1108 · #462 Postby **weatherdude1108** » Thu Oct 02, 2014 10:49 pm

The evil "CIN" :grr:

:

000
FXUS64 KEWX 030304
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1004 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

.UPDATE...
WE ARE CONTINUING TO DROP COUNTIES FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
520 AS THE SQUALL LINE MOVES EAST. SIGNIFICANT CIN IS
DEVELOPING..WHICH SHOULD PRECLUDE DEVELOPMENT SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE CURRENT ACTIVITY EXCEPT FOR A FEW SHOWERS.

weatherdude1108 · #463 Postby **weatherdude1108** » Thu Oct 02, 2014 11:11 pm

I saw these posts on FB from the Arlington and Fort Worth areas. You Dallas peeps ok? I thought Ntxw lives in Arlington. Crazy winds! :eek:

https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_ ... 8012864653

https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_ ... 8012864653

#464 Postby **South Texas Storms** » Thu Oct 02, 2014 11:46 pm

Unfortunately, much of the Hill Country (including Austin and San Antonio) missed out on the rain with this system. There was continuous lightning though here in Austin and I caught a picture of it:

#465 Postby **somethingfunny** » Fri Oct 03, 2014 1:21 am

weatherdude1108 wrote:I saw these posts on FB from the Arlington and Fort Worth areas. You Dallas peeps ok? I thought Ntxw lives in Arlington. Crazy winds!

https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_ ... 8012864653

https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_ ... 8012864653

Most of us have no power. Mine just came back.

All I can say is holy **** I have never experienced a storm like that one in my life.

I've got some photos and videos to sort through but first I need sleep.... this video captured the experience pretty well though:

http://www.nbcdfw.com/video/?_osource=S ... /277956451

#466 Postby **Ralph's Weather** » Fri Oct 03, 2014 7:51 am

We sure missed the worst of the storms last night. Just some wind for a few minutes then rain for a bit a good while later.

#467 Postby **Ntxw** » Fri Oct 03, 2014 8:21 am

weatherdude1108 wrote:I saw these posts on FB from the Arlington and Fort Worth areas. You Dallas peeps ok? I thought Ntxw lives in Arlington. Crazy winds!

https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_ ... 8012864653

https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_ ... 8012864653

Im actually in Irving. I saw some winds and rain, the worst of it was south of 635 in Dallas county. A lot of the damage looks like straight line winds 60-80mph in the line that starting bowing out along I-30 Eastward

200,000+ customers were without power yesterday in NTX most in DFW so this was a much more wind impact than most predicted

WeatherNewbie · #468 Postby **WeatherNewbie** » Fri Oct 03, 2014 9:05 am

somethingfunny wrote:
weatherdude1108 wrote:I saw these posts on FB from the Arlington and Fort Worth areas. You Dallas peeps ok? I thought Ntxw lives in Arlington. Crazy winds!

https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_ ... 8012864653

https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_ ... 8012864653

Most of us have no power. Mine just came back.

All I can say is holy **** I have never experienced a storm like that one in my life.

I've got some photos and videos to sort through but first I need sleep.... this video captured the experience pretty well though:

http://www.nbcdfw.com/video/?_osource=S ... /277956451

Wow, that looks like footage from a hurricane. We saw some massive trees down between Richardson and the Lakewood area when we went to see a friend.

TeamPlayersBlue · #469 Postby **TeamPlayersBlue** » Fri Oct 03, 2014 9:31 am

.70" here in Sugar Land, wind wasnt too bad. Maybe gusted to 35 MPH. Good rain ready for a better weekend! Headed to PortaTown for ACL!

weatherdude1108 · #470 Postby **weatherdude1108** » Fri Oct 03, 2014 10:54 am

South Texas Storms wrote:Unfortunately, much of the Hill Country (including Austin and San Antonio) missed out on the rain with this system. There was continuous lightning though here in Austin and I caught a picture of it:

http://i57.tinypic.com/2s99e6o.jpg

That is an awesome shot! It was lightning in the distance to my north/northwest from my place. You could see the cumulonimbus formations when lightning sparked. I tried to get a pic of it, but I couldn't get the timing right.

#471 Postby **South Texas Storms** » Fri Oct 03, 2014 12:58 pm

weatherdude1108 wrote:
South Texas Storms wrote:Unfortunately, much of the Hill Country (including Austin and San Antonio) missed out on the rain with this system. There was continuous lightning though here in Austin and I caught a picture of it:

http://i57.tinypic.com/2s99e6o.jpg

That is an awesome shot! It was lightning in the distance to my north/northwest from my place. You could see the cumulonimbus formations when lightning sparked. I tried to get a pic of it, but I couldn't get the timing right.

Thanks! I actually use a lightning capturing app on my phone that takes several images from the previous 6 seconds. So after lightning strikes, I hit capture the picture, and I have several pictures from the previous 6 seconds. It's an awesome app!

#472 Postby **Texas Snowman** » Fri Oct 03, 2014 2:27 pm

Lots of wind and lightning here along the Red River with yesterday's storms. Rainfall in Grayson County ranged from 0.31 to 0.70. Had about a half-inch here at the house in Denison.

Some scattered tree damage was reported and we actually had a DISD elementary school teacher struck by lightning - or standing right next to a spot that was hit by lightning. She wasn't seriously injured thank goodness but she did stay in the hospital overnight for observation from what I heard.

One of our football coaches said he had a lot of tree damage and big limbs down on his farm. Said it was chainsaw time this weekend.

Pretty robust storms for sure - that line of severe storms was reminiscent of an April or May storm system.

Would love to see that kind of energy associated with a storm system, oh say about...December or January!

#473 Postby **Ntxw** » Fri Oct 03, 2014 7:48 pm

If you're looking for some hope to rain turn towards the EPAC. Simon is a hurricane and will be re-curving in our general direction.

#474 Postby **gboudx** » Fri Oct 03, 2014 10:04 pm

Ntxw wrote:If you're looking for some hope to rain turn towards the EPAC. Simon is a hurricane and will be re-curving in our general direction.

DFW mentions this possibility but they are leaning towards the drier ECMF as of this afternoons AFD. This from the AM AFD discussing the possibility. Any idea why they are leaning to ECMF Ntxw?

WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH FUTURE MODEL RUNS REGARDING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FOR MONDAY.

ADDITIONAL MODEL DISCREPANCIES CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS BOTH
THE GFS AND CANADIAN BRING TROPICAL STORM SIMON IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC ACROSS BAJA AND INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS ON WEDNESDAY.
THE GFS CONTINUES TO BRING THE REMNANTS OF SIMON INTO THE PLAINS
AND STRENGTHENS THE SYSTEM INTO A POWERFUL MID-LEVEL STORM SYSTEM
THAT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION WITH DECENT RAIN CHANCES LATE
NEXT WEEK. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE ECMWF MOVES SIMON AWAY FROM
LAND AND KEEPS ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND QUIET WEATHER OVER THE REGION.
WILL KEEP THE FORECAST BEYOND MONDAY DRY FOR NOW AND WAIT FOR
BETTER MODEL RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY BEFORE INTRODUCING ANY POPS
LATE NEXT WEEK. THE DISCREPANCIES IN THE MODELS BEYOND THE WEEKEND
MAKE FOR A CHALLENGING FORECAST REGARDING TEMPS/DEWPOINTS/WIND
SPEEDS...ETC.

#475 Postby **Ntxw** » Fri Oct 03, 2014 10:38 pm

gboudx wrote:
Ntxw wrote:If you're looking for some hope to rain turn towards the EPAC. Simon is a hurricane and will be re-curving in our general direction.

DFW mentions this possibility but they are leaning towards the drier ECMF as of this afternoons AFD. This from the AM AFD discussing the possibility. Any idea why they are leaning to ECMF Ntxw?

ECMWF is probably their model of choice due to it's history. I would question it though in this case because it's set of ensembles are evenly split, half re-curve half west. Climo this time of year favors re-curve because westerlies kick in. GFS and ENS all re-curve so if I was a forecaster I would favor model suit with most consistency being the GFS family as hard as that is to say which is what the NHC favors for it's forecasted track.

#476 Postby **Ralph's Weather** » Sat Oct 04, 2014 7:29 am

Low 40s here. I expect the next big front to bring frost.

#477 Postby **Rgv20** » Sat Oct 04, 2014 10:16 am

Had a morning low of 62, lowest temperature so far this fall!

#478 Postby **Ntxw** » Sat Oct 04, 2014 12:09 pm

Models are continuing to trend wetter in their runs so hopefully its a sign EPAC input is coming to fruition. Still watching for mid month significant cold shot potential from indices

#479 Postby **Ntxw** » Sun Oct 05, 2014 12:00 am

The AO has gone negative as forecasted. Now expected to fall in the 3-4 sigma below normal which is no walk in the park any time of year. ENS are zoning in on deep anomalous trough across the central CONUS Oct 10-15th time frame after the passage Simon remnants which if travels as predicted would enhance rainfall chances across the state before the coming of colder air.

#480 Postby **TheProfessor** » Sun Oct 05, 2014 9:46 am

Well I have mentioned before that ant hills can foreshadow what might happen during the winter. Well, After the rain on Thursday there was nothing underneath the tree but Yesterday morning a Very large ant hill appeared under the tree that's producing acorns, which has never happened in the 11 years we've lived in this house.

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