WPAC: VONGFONG - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

Just wished that hurricane hunter plane was headed for Vongfong instead as it is threatening a U.S territory and Simon like most EPAC storms drift harmlessly out to sea or become a remnant low before touching land or even Japan, one of the most richest countries in the world with their large U.S presence...Both with U.S military technologies...

[euro6208]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 04 OCT 2014 Time : 153000 UTC
Lat : 11:42:04 N Lon : 152:07:50 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.4 / 979.0mb/ 74.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.3 3.9 3.8

Center Temp : -72.0C Cloud Region Temp : -78.0C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.5T/hour
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 56km
- Environmental MSLP : 1007mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 16.0 degrees

[euro6208]

Looks like we will be placed under Condition of Readiness 2 in a few hours which means Damaging winds may arrive within 24 hours and a Typhoon Warning in effect...

[Dave C]

Possible eye feature on the latest sat pic. Seems to be some moderate ne shear that may keep it from rapidly developing. Interesting next 24hrs ahead!

[euro6208]

JMA (10 min) only up to an astonishing 45 knots despite all data and expected to intensify to only 65 knots and weaken...

[euro6208]

http://www.guampdn.com/article/20141005/NEWS01/310050001/Storm-targets-Marianas-Deviation-track-could-bring-typhoon-over-Guam

Typhoon Vongfong with embedded video...

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ81 PGUM 041737
HLSPQ1

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TYPHOON VONGFONG PUBLIC LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
337 AM CHST SUN OCT 5 2014

...TYPHOON VONGFONG STILL HEADING TOWARDS THE MARIANAS...

.NEW INFORMATION...
GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN AND SAIPAN ALL REMAIN IN TROPICAL CYCLONE
CONDITION OF READINESS 3.

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE IN
THE MARIANAS AND SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS OUT TO 40 NM.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TYPHOON WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...GUAM...
ROTA...TINIAN AND SAIPAN.

FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A TYPHOON WATCH CONTINUES FOR ALL OF
MARIANAS WATERS OUT TO 40 NM.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 2 AM CHST...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON VONGFONG WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 11.6N...LONGITUDE 152.3E...OR ABOUT 505 MILES EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF TINIAN AND SAIPAN...510 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ROTA
AND 525 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. STORM MOTION WAS NORTHWEST
AT 17 MPH. STORM INTENSITY WAS 75 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
THE APPROACH OF TYPHOON VONGFONG WILL CAUSE WINDS AND SEAS TO
INCREASE DRAMATICALLY STARTING TONIGHT. HEAVY RAINS WILL ALSO
CREATE FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

IT IS TOO EARLY TO PROVIDE EXACT WIND AND SURGE FORECAST VALUES
FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS. A GENERAL CONCERN SHOULD BE FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF DEVASTATING WIND DAMAGE SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE
MARIANAS.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR THOSE UNDER A WATCH...BEGIN PREPARING YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS
ACCORDING TO YOUR TYPHOON DISASTER PLAN. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. HEED THE ADVICE OF LOCAL OFFICIALS AND COMPLY WITH ANY
ORDERS THAT ARE ISSUED.

MARINERS SHOULD PERFORM THE PRESCRIBED PREPARATIONS ACCORDING TO
THEIR EMERGENCY OPERATIONS PLAN FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES. IF YOU
LIVE ON A BOAT...BEGIN TO SAFELY SECURE YOUR CRAFT AND MAKE PLANS
TO LEAVE IT FOR ADEQUATE LAND BASED SHELTER. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE
WARNINGS.

REGARDING THE COASTAL WATERS UNDER A WATCH...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
RETURN TO PORT OR SEEK SAFE HARBOR.

CLOSELY MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS
FOR OFFICIAL STORM INFORMATION. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST.

FOR ADDITIONAL PRECAUTIONARY AND PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION...
PLEASE REFER TO THE DETAILED RECOMMENDATIONS RELATIVE TO YOUR
LOCATION AS FURTHER DESCRIBED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE AND YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN TIYAN AROUND 9 AM CHST...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

GUZ001-PMZ151-050145-
/X.CON.PGUM.TY.A.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
GUAM-GUAM COASTAL WATERS-
337 AM CHST SUN OCT 5 2014

...TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

STAY CALM AND KEEP INFORMED. COMPLY WITH ANY ORDERS THAT ARE
ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA. IF YOUR HOME IS VULNERABLE TO HIGH
WINDS...OR YOU LIVE IN A SURGE ZONE OR ANY LOCATION PRONE TO
FLOODING...EVACUATE TO A DESIGNATED SHELTER OR RIDE OUT THE STORM
IN THE STURDY HOME OF FAMILY OR FRIENDS.

ITEMS TO BRING TO A SHELTER INCLUDE A FIRST AID KIT...MEDICINES
AND PRESCRIPTIONS...BABY FOOD AND DIAPERS...GAMES AND BOOKS...
TOILETRIES...A BATTERY POWERED RADIO...A CELL PHONE...FLASHLIGHTS
WITH EXTRA BATTERIES...A BLANKET OR SLEEPING BAG FOR EACH
PERSON...PERSONAL IDENTIFICATION...COPIES OF KEY PAPERS SUCH AS
INSURANCE POLICIES...AVAILABLE CASH AND CREDIT CARDS. REMEMBER...
PETS ARE NOT ALLOWED IN MOST PUBLIC SHELTERS...SO CHECK AHEAD
WITH YOUR INTENDED SHELTER.

REGARDING YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS...COVER ALL WINDOWS AND DOORS
WITH SHUTTERS OR PLYWOOD. MOVE PATIO FURNITURE AND OTHER LOOSE
OBJECTS INDOORS. BRACE ALL EXTERIOR DOORS...INCLUDING GARAGE
DOORS. DO THIS AS EARLY AS POSSIBLE.

IF YOU NEED TO MAKE A TRIP TO THE HARDWARE STORE...THE GROCERY
STORE...OR THE GAS STATION...DO SO AS EARLY AS POSSIBLE. BOAT
OWNERS AND CAPTAINS OF SMALL CRAFT NEED TO DETERMINE THE BEST
STRATEGY FOR SECURING THEIR CRAFT.

&&

...WINDS AND SEAS...
AS TYPHOON VONGFONG MOVES CLOSER...THE THREAT FOR SUSTAINED HIGH
WINDS IS LIKELY TO INCREASE. THE LATEST FORECAST IS FOR TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS FROM EARLY MONDAY MORNING TO LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
COMBINED SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FEET TODAY WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 12 AND
18 FEET AS TYPHOON VONGFONG PASSES THROUGH THE MARIANAS ON MONDAY.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
SURF WILL BECOME DANGEROUS AS THE STORM PASSES ON MONDAY. COASTAL
INUNDATION OF 2 TO 4 FEET IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE TIME
OF HIGH TIDE.

...INLAND FLOODING...
HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STORM. SUCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF AND
COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODS AND FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS.

$$

GUZ002-PMZ152-050145-
/X.CON.PGUM.TY.A.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
ROTA-ROTA COASTAL WATERS-
337 AM CHST SUN OCT 5 2014

...TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

STAY CALM AND KEEP INFORMED. COMPLY WITH ANY ORDERS THAT ARE
ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA. IF YOUR HOME IS VULNERABLE TO HIGH
WINDS...OR YOU LIVE IN A SURGE ZONE OR ANY LOCATION PRONE TO
FLOODING...EVACUATE TO A DESIGNATED SHELTER OR RIDE OUT THE STORM
IN THE STURDY HOME OF FAMILY OR FRIENDS.

ITEMS TO BRING TO A SHELTER INCLUDE A FIRST AID KIT...MEDICINES
AND PRESCRIPTIONS...BABY FOOD AND DIAPERS...GAMES AND BOOKS...
TOILETRIES...A BATTERY POWERED RADIO...A CELL PHONE...FLASHLIGHTS
WITH EXTRA BATTERIES...A BLANKET OR SLEEPING BAG FOR EACH
PERSON...PERSONAL IDENTIFICATION...COPIES OF KEY PAPERS SUCH AS
INSURANCE POLICIES...AVAILABLE CASH AND CREDIT CARDS. REMEMBER...
PETS ARE NOT ALLOWED IN MOST PUBLIC SHELTERS...SO CHECK AHEAD WITH
YOUR INTENDED SHELTER.

REGARDING YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS...COVER ALL WINDOWS AND DOORS
WITH SHUTTERS OR PLYWOOD. MOVE PATIO FURNITURE AND OTHER LOOSE
OBJECTS INDOORS. BRACE ALL EXTERIOR DOORS...INCLUDING GARAGE
DOORS. DO THIS AS EARLY AS POSSIBLE.

IF YOU NEED TO MAKE A TRIP TO THE HARDWARE STORE...THE GROCERY
STORE...OR THE GAS STATION...DO SO AS EARLY AS POSSIBLE. BOAT
OWNERS AND CAPTAINS OF SMALL CRAFT NEED TO DETERMINE THE BEST
STRATEGY FOR SECURING THEIR CRAFT.

&&

...WINDS AND SEAS...
AS TYPHOON VONGFONG MOVES CLOSER...THE THREAT FOR SUSTAINED HIGH
WINDS IS LIKELY TO INCREASE. THE LATEST FORECAST IS FOR TYPHOON FORCE
WINDS FROM MONDAY MORNING TO MONDAY AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE AREA
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. COMBINED SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FEET TODAY WILL
INCREASE TO BETWEEN 15 AND 23 FEET AS TYPHOON VONGFONG PASSES
MONDAY.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
SURF WILL BECOME DANGEROUS AS THE STORM PASSES ON MONDAY. COASTAL
INUNDATION OF 3 TO 5 FEET IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE TIME
OF HIGH TIDE.

...INLAND FLOODING...
HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STORM. SUCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF AND
COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODS AND FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS.

$$

GUZ003-004-PMZ153-154-050145-
/X.CON.PGUM.TY.A.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
TINIAN-SAIPAN-TINIAN COASTAL WATERS-SAIPAN COASTAL WATERS-
337 AM CHST SUN OCT 5 2014

...TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

STAY CALM AND KEEP INFORMED. COMPLY WITH ANY ORDERS THAT ARE
ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA. IF YOUR HOME IS VULNERABLE TO HIGH
WINDS...OR YOU LIVE IN A SURGE ZONE OR ANY LOCATION PRONE TO
FLOODING...EVACUATE TO A DESIGNATED SHELTER OR RIDE OUT THE STORM
IN THE STURDY HOME OF FAMILY OR FRIENDS OUTSIDE OF EVACUATION
ZONES.

ITEMS TO BRING TO A SHELTER INCLUDE A FIRST AID KIT...MEDICINES
AND PRESCRIPTIONS...BABY FOOD AND DIAPERS...GAMES AND BOOKS...
TOILETRIES...A BATTERY POWERED RADIO...A CELL PHONE...FLASHLIGHTS
WITH EXTRA BATTERIES...A BLANKET OR SLEEPING BAG FOR EACH
PERSON...PERSONAL IDENTIFICATION...COPIES OF KEY PAPERS SUCH AS
INSURANCE POLICIES...AVAILABLE CASH AND CREDIT CARDS. REMEMBER...
PETS ARE NOT ALLOWED IN MOST PUBLIC SHELTERS...SO CHECK AHEAD
WITH YOUR INTENDED SHELTER.

REGARDING YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS...COVER ALL WINDOWS AND DOORS
WITH SHUTTERS OR PLYWOOD. MOVE PATIO FURNITURE AND OTHER LOOSE
OBJECTS INDOORS. BRACE ALL EXTERIOR DOORS...INCLUDING GARAGE
DOORS. DO THIS AS EARLY AS POSSIBLE.

IF YOU NEED TO MAKE A TRIP TO THE HARDWARE STORE...THE GROCERY
STORE...OR THE GAS STATION...DO SO AS EARLY AS POSSIBLE. BOAT
OWNERS AND CAPTAINS OF SMALL CRAFT NEED TO DETERMINE THE BEST
STRATEGY FOR SECURING THEIR CRAFT.

&&

...WINDS AND SEAS...
AS TYPHOON VONGFONG MOVES CLOSER...THE THREAT FOR SUSTAINED HIGH
WINDS IS LIKELY TO INCREASE. THE LATEST FORECAST IS FOR STRONG
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS FROM MONDAY MORNING TO EARLY MONDAY
EVENING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO
BEGIN AFFECTING THE AREA TONIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT. COMBINED SEAS OF
6 TO 8 FEET TODAY WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 12 AND 18 FEET AS
TYPHOON VONGFONG PASSES MONDAY.


...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
SURF WILL BECOME DANGEROUS AS THE STORM PASSES ON MONDAY. COASTAL
INUNDATION OF 2 TO 4 FEET IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE TIME
OF HIGH TIDE.

...INLAND FLOODING...
HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STORM. SUCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF AND
COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODS AND FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS.


$$

[cycloneye]

JMA upgrades to Severe Tropical Storm.

STS 1419 (VONGFONG)
Issued at 19:05 UTC, 4 October 2014
<Analyses at 04/18 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N12°00'(12.0°)
E151°50'(151.8°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL280km(150NM)

<Forecast for 05/06 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N12°55'(12.9°)
E149°40'(149.7°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45m/s(85kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area ALL170km(90NM)

<Forecast for 05/18 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N14°20'(14.3°)
E146°30'(146.5°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30km/h(17kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)
Storm warning area ALL220km(120NM)

<Forecast for 06/18 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N16°40'(16.7°)
E141°05'(141.1°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 25km/h(14kt)
Central pressure 955hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 260km(140NM)
Storm warning area ALL390km(210NM)

<Forecast for 07/18 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N18°20'(18.3°)
E136°55'(136.9°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 945hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(85kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(120kt)
Radius of probability circle 390km(210NM)
Storm warning area ALL560km(300NM)

[phwxenthusiast]

looks like another tight core storm with Vongfong as a tiny eye is beginning to appear on satellite

[cycloneye]

Saved image of Vongfong showing an eye as it approach the Mariana islands.

[cycloneye]

People in the Marianas should be on the last steps of preparation as they are under a Typhoon Warning.

TYPHOON VONGFONG LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
854 AM CHST SUN OCT 5 2014

...TYPHOON VONGFONG STILL HEADING TOWARDS THE MARIANAS...

.NEW INFORMATION...
GUAM IS NOW IN TROPICAL CYCLONE CONDITION OF READINESS 2.

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE IN
THE MARIANAS AND SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS OUT TO 40 NM.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TYPHOON WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...GUAM...
ROTA...TINIAN AND SAIPAN.

FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A TYPHOON WARNING CONTINUES FOR ALL OF
MARIANAS WATERS OUT TO 40 NM.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 7 AM CHST...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON VONGFONG WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 12.2N...LONGITUDE 150.9E...OR ABOUT 405 MILES EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF TINIAN AND ROTA...400 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN
AND 425 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. STORM MOTION WAS WEST-
NORTHWEST AT 18 MPH. STORM INTENSITY REMAINS AT 75 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT. DAMAGING WINDS ARE NOW
EXPECTED WITHIN THE MARIANAS AND SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS WITHIN
24 HOURS. THE APPROACH OF TYPHOON VONGFONG WILL CAUSE INCREASED
WINDS AND SEAS AND ALSO HEAVY RAIN WHICH WILL CAUSE FLOODING IN
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR THOSE UNDER A WARNING...NOW IS THE TIME TO RUSH TO COMPLETION
PREPARATIONS FOR THE PROTECTION OF LIFE AND PROPERTY. EVACUATE TO
A SUITABLE SHELTER IF DIRECTED TO DO SO BY LOCAL OFFICIALS...OR
IF YOUR HOME IS VULNERABLE TO HIGH WINDS OR FLOODING.

MARINERS SHOULD URGENTLY COMPLETE PRESCRIBED PREPARATIONS
ACCORDING TO YOUR EMERGENCY OPERATIONS PLAN FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.
IF YOU LIVE ON A BOAT...MAKE FINAL PREPARATIONS FOR SECURING YOUR
CRAFT BEFORE LEAVING IT.

FOR COASTAL WATERS UNDER A WARNING...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN
PORT AND REMAIN WELL SECURED.

FOR ADDITIONAL PRECAUTIONARY AND PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION...
PLEASE REFER TO THE DETAILED RECOMMENDATIONS RELATIVE TO YOUR
LOCATION AS FURTHER DESCRIBED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN TIYAN AROUND 3 PM CHST...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

GUZ001-PMZ151-050700-
/X.CON.PGUM.TY.W.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
GUAM-GUAM COASTAL WATERS-
854 AM CHST SUN OCT 5 2014

...TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MAKE THE FINAL PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. RUSH TO
COMPLETION THE HARDENING OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS BY CLOSING
SHUTTERS AND BRACING GARAGE DOORS. VONGFONG IS A SMALL SYSTEM WITH
A SHARP RIDGE TO THE WEST. THIS MEANS THAT WHEN CONDITIONS BEGIN
TO DETERIORATE...THEY WILL LIKELY DO SO RAPIDLY.

IF EVACUATING TO OTHER SHELTER...LEAVE AS SOON AS POSSIBLE. GUARD
AGAINST BEING CAUGHT OUT ON ROADWAYS WHEN DANGEROUS WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINS ARRIVE. AGAIN...DO NOT STAY IN A TIN ROOF HOME. REMEMBER...
PETS ARE NOT ALLOWED IN MOST OFFICIAL SHELTERS...SO CHECK AHEAD
WITH YOUR INTENDED SHELTER.

IF STAYING IN A STURDY HOME...TURN THE REFRIGERATOR SETTING TO
MAXIMUM COLD AND KEEP IT CLOSED. TURN OFF PROPANE TANKS AND UNPLUG
SMALL APPLIANCES. FILL THE BATHTUB WITH WATER IN CASE THE TAP
WATER BECOMES UNAVAILABLE AFTER THE STORM. THIS IS FOR CLEANING
AND FLUSHING PURPOSES. DO NOT DRINK IT. BOAT OWNERS AND CAPTAINS
OF SMALL CRAFT SHOULD RUSH TO COMPLETION THE SECURING OF THEIR
CRAFT.

&&

...WINDS AND SEAS...
AS TYPHOON VONGFONG APPROACHES...SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN EARLY MONDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 45 TO 65 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 80
MPH. DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED. POORLY CONSTRUCTED TIN ROOF
HOMES MAY BE HEAVILY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. LOOSE OUTDOOR ITEMS
WILL BECOME PROJECTILES...CAUSING ADDITIONAL DAMAGE AND POSSIBLE
INJURY. MANY AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE POWER OUTAGES WITH SOME DOWNED
POWER POLES. NUMEROUS LARGE BRANCHES OF HEALTHY TREES WILL SNAP.
SOME TREES WILL BE UPROOTED...ESPECIALLY WHERE THE GROUND IS
SATURATED. COMBINED SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FEET TODAY WILL INCREASE TO
BETWEEN 12 AND 18 FEET AS TYPHOON VONGFONG PASSES THROUGH THE
MARIANAS ON MONDAY.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
SURF WILL BECOME DANGEROUS AS THE STORM PASSES ON MONDAY. COASTAL
INUNDATION OF 2 TO 4 FEET IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE TIME
OF HIGH TIDE.

...INLAND FLOODING...
HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STORM. SUCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF AND
COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODS AND FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS.

$$

TYPHOON VONGFONG LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
854 AM CHST SUN OCT 5 2014

...TYPHOON VONGFONG STILL HEADING TOWARDS THE MARIANAS...

.NEW INFORMATION...
GUAM IS NOW IN TROPICAL CYCLONE CONDITION OF READINESS 2.

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE IN
THE MARIANAS AND SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS OUT TO 40 NM.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TYPHOON WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...GUAM...
ROTA...TINIAN AND SAIPAN.

FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A TYPHOON WARNING CONTINUES FOR ALL OF
MARIANAS WATERS OUT TO 40 NM.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 7 AM CHST...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON VONGFONG WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 12.2N...LONGITUDE 150.9E...OR ABOUT 405 MILES EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF TINIAN AND ROTA...400 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN
AND 425 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. STORM MOTION WAS WEST-
NORTHWEST AT 18 MPH. STORM INTENSITY REMAINS AT 75 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT. DAMAGING WINDS ARE NOW
EXPECTED WITHIN THE MARIANAS AND SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS WITHIN
24 HOURS. THE APPROACH OF TYPHOON VONGFONG WILL CAUSE INCREASED
WINDS AND SEAS AND ALSO HEAVY RAIN WHICH WILL CAUSE FLOODING IN
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR THOSE UNDER A WARNING...NOW IS THE TIME TO RUSH TO COMPLETION
PREPARATIONS FOR THE PROTECTION OF LIFE AND PROPERTY. EVACUATE TO
A SUITABLE SHELTER IF DIRECTED TO DO SO BY LOCAL OFFICIALS...OR
IF YOUR HOME IS VULNERABLE TO HIGH WINDS OR FLOODING.

MARINERS SHOULD URGENTLY COMPLETE PRESCRIBED PREPARATIONS
ACCORDING TO YOUR EMERGENCY OPERATIONS PLAN FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.
IF YOU LIVE ON A BOAT...MAKE FINAL PREPARATIONS FOR SECURING YOUR
CRAFT BEFORE LEAVING IT.

FOR COASTAL WATERS UNDER A WARNING...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN
PORT AND REMAIN WELL SECURED.

FOR ADDITIONAL PRECAUTIONARY AND PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION...
PLEASE REFER TO THE DETAILED RECOMMENDATIONS RELATIVE TO YOUR
LOCATION AS FURTHER DESCRIBED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN TIYAN AROUND 3 PM CHST...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

GUZ002-PMZ152-050700-
/X.CON.PGUM.TY.W.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
ROTA-ROTA COASTAL WATERS-
854 AM CHST SUN OCT 5 2014

...TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MAKE THE FINAL PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. RUSH TO
COMPLETION THE HARDENING OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS BY CLOSING
SHUTTERS AND BRACING GARAGE DOORS. VONGFONG IS A SMALL SYSTEM WITH
A SHARP RIDGE TO THE WEST. THIS MEANS THAT WHEN CONDITIONS BEGIN
TO DETERIORATE...THEY WILL LIKELY DO SO RAPIDLY.

IF EVACUATING TO OTHER SHELTER...LEAVE AS SOON AS POSSIBLE. GUARD
AGAINST BEING CAUGHT OUT ON ROADWAYS WHEN DANGEROUS WINDS AND
HEAVY RAINS ARRIVE. AGAIN...DO NOT STAY IN A TIN ROOF HOME.
REMEMBER...PETS ARE NOT ALLOWED IN MOST OFFICIAL SHELTERS...SO
CHECK AHEAD WITH YOUR INTENDED SHELTER.

IF STAYING IN A STURDY HOME...TURN THE REFRIGERATOR SETTING TO
MAXIMUM COLD AND KEEP IT CLOSED. TURN OFF PROPANE TANKS AND UNPLUG
SMALL APPLIANCES. FILL THE BATHTUB WITH WATER IN CASE THE TAP
WATER BECOMES UNAVAILABLE AFTER THE STORM. THIS IS FOR CLEANING
AND FLUSHING PURPOSES. DO NOT DRINK IT. BOAT OWNERS AND CAPTAINS
OF SMALL CRAFT SHOULD RUSH TO COMPLETION THE SECURING OF THEIR
CRAFT.

&&

...WINDS AND SEAS...
AS TYPHOON VONGFONG APPROACHES...SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TONIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT AND TYPHOON
FORCE WINDS MONDAY MORNING. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
LAST FOR ALMOST 12 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE
90 TO 105 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 130 MPH. DEVASTATING DAMAGE IS
EXPECTED. COLLAPSE OF SOME RESIDENTIAL STRUCTURES WILL PUT LIVES
AT RISK. AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL CAUSE EXTENSIVE DAMAGE. PERSONS OR
ANIMALS STRUCK BY THE WIND BLOWN DEBRIS WILL BE INJURED OR
KILLED. ELECTRICITY AND WATER WILL BE UNAVAILABLE FOR DAYS AND
PERHAPS WEEKS AFTER THE STORM PASSES. MOST TREES WILL BE SNAPPED
OR UPROOTED. FALLEN TREES MAY CUT OFF RESIDENTIAL AREAS FOR DAYS
TO WEEKS. COMBINED SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FEET TODAY WILL INCREASE TO
BETWEEN 15 AND 23 FEET AS TYPHOON VONGFONG PASSES MONDAY.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
SURF WILL BECOME DANGEROUS AS THE STORM PASSES ON MONDAY. COASTAL
INUNDATION OF 3 TO 5 FEET IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE TIME
OF HIGH TIDE.

...INLAND FLOODING...
HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STORM. SUCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF AND
COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODS AND FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS.

$$

TYPHOON VONGFONG LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
854 AM CHST SUN OCT 5 2014

...TYPHOON VONGFONG STILL HEADING TOWARDS THE MARIANAS...

.NEW INFORMATION...
GUAM IS NOW IN TROPICAL CYCLONE CONDITION OF READINESS 2.

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE IN
THE MARIANAS AND SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS OUT TO 40 NM.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TYPHOON WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...GUAM...
ROTA...TINIAN AND SAIPAN.

FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A TYPHOON WARNING CONTINUES FOR ALL OF
MARIANAS WATERS OUT TO 40 NM.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 7 AM CHST...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON VONGFONG WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 12.2N...LONGITUDE 150.9E...OR ABOUT 405 MILES EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF TINIAN AND ROTA...400 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN
AND 425 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. STORM MOTION WAS WEST-
NORTHWEST AT 18 MPH. STORM INTENSITY REMAINS AT 75 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT. DAMAGING WINDS ARE NOW
EXPECTED WITHIN THE MARIANAS AND SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS WITHIN
24 HOURS. THE APPROACH OF TYPHOON VONGFONG WILL CAUSE INCREASED
WINDS AND SEAS AND ALSO HEAVY RAIN WHICH WILL CAUSE FLOODING IN
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR THOSE UNDER A WARNING...NOW IS THE TIME TO RUSH TO COMPLETION
PREPARATIONS FOR THE PROTECTION OF LIFE AND PROPERTY. EVACUATE TO
A SUITABLE SHELTER IF DIRECTED TO DO SO BY LOCAL OFFICIALS...OR
IF YOUR HOME IS VULNERABLE TO HIGH WINDS OR FLOODING.

MARINERS SHOULD URGENTLY COMPLETE PRESCRIBED PREPARATIONS
ACCORDING TO YOUR EMERGENCY OPERATIONS PLAN FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.
IF YOU LIVE ON A BOAT...MAKE FINAL PREPARATIONS FOR SECURING YOUR
CRAFT BEFORE LEAVING IT.

FOR COASTAL WATERS UNDER A WARNING...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN
PORT AND REMAIN WELL SECURED.

FOR ADDITIONAL PRECAUTIONARY AND PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION...
PLEASE REFER TO THE DETAILED RECOMMENDATIONS RELATIVE TO YOUR
LOCATION AS FURTHER DESCRIBED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track up to 70kts.

[img]19W VONGFONG 141005 0000 12.6N 149.9E WPAC 70 970[/img]

[gatorcane]

Saved loop showing deep convection with even an eye feature briefly visible:

[cycloneye]

Still STS by JMA.

STS 1419 (VONGFONG)
Issued at 01:10 UTC, 5 October 2014
<Analyses at 05/00 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N12°30'(12.5°)
E149°55'(149.9°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30km/h(16kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45m/s(85kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL90km(50NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL280km(150NM)

<Forecast for 05/12 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N13°55'(13.9°)
E147°05'(147.1°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30km/h(15kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area ALL220km(120NM)

<Forecast for 06/00 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N15°20'(15.3°)
E144°00'(144.0°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30km/h(17kt)
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)
Storm warning area ALL280km(150NM)

<Forecast for 07/00 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N17°05'(17.1°)
E138°30'(138.5°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 25km/h(14kt)
Central pressure 950hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Radius of probability circle 260km(140NM)
Storm warning area ALL410km(220NM)

<Forecast for 08/00 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N18°20'(18.3°)
E134°05'(134.1°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 940hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(85kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(120kt)
Radius of probability circle 390km(210NM)
Storm warning area ALL560km(300NM)

[xtyphooncyclonex]

75-85 kts would be more reasonable IMO because the structure looks very organized, especially on Microwave imagery. Dvorak estimates are now at 5.0 and would mean it is in the neighborhood of cat 2-3 strength, but rather may be too bullish.

[cycloneye]

0300z warning graphic by JTWC.

[galaxy401]

I can see this storm maintaining a powerful intensity for a long time considering how much water it still has to go.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

00z GFS has Typhoon Vongfong between Rota and Northern Guam, leading to at least 65 knot winds over Guam and Rota.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Wow

19W VONGFONG 141005 0600 13.4N 147.9E WPAC 90 956

Wonder why the JMA hasn't upgraded this to a typhoon.

[euro6208]

Whew been driving all day...Roads are wet and very cloudy...showers on and off...

I see now we have a Category 2 Typhoon with winds of 90 knots!