Texas Fall-2014

[texas1836]

It looks like the Storms are starting further west-southwest than previously thought, what could that mean for precip totals in North Texas?

It means rains coming, and hails coming with it, you hear, HAILS COMING WITH IT!!!!

[gboudx]

It looks like the Storms are starting further west-southwest than previously thought, what could that mean for precip totals in North Texas?

It means rains coming, and hails coming with it, you hear, HAILS COMING WITH IT!!!!

Lol!

[South Texas Storms]

A line of showers and thunderstorms is expected to develop over the Hill Country and central Texas later tonight as the cold front slowly pushes southeast across the region. Here is what one computer model thinks the radar will look like at 6 am tomorrow morning:

[weatherdude1108]

Wow! That is impressive if it verifies!

[weatherdude1108]

Just started raining here.

[Portastorm]

Recorded a wonderful 1.36" of rain here at the Portastorm Weather Center in scenic SW Travis County and still lightly raining. Yes!

[Ntxw]

Most of the metroplex saw from 0.50 to 1.5 inch range more to the east less to the west. DFW airport recorded 0.31 inches.

[TheProfessor]

Yeah only got about half of inch here, I'm hoping for at least another inch tomorrow night otherwise this weekend will be a bust in my book.

[weatherdude1108]

1.7 inches of liquid gold out of this since 5am this morning at the Weatherdude center.
My first measurable rain in THREE WEEKS and two days.

[Ntxw]

DFW had a high of 60F today most of North Texas was in the 50s. Austin so far made it to 65F. Fall is in the air!

[Ntxw]

So the AO tanked the first half of October. It is about to tank again the second half.

[texas1836]

So the AO tanked the first half of October. It is about to tank again the second half.

I hope so,with record breaking low temps. Is there a website where I can monitor the AO?

[Portastorm]

So the AO tanked the first half of October. It is about to tank again the second half.

I hope so,with record breaking low temps. Is there a website where I can monitor the AO?

Here you go:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.shtml

[TheProfessor]

Well it looks like we might get more rain than previously thought, WPC was only predicting about .75 of an inch but now has 1.5-2.5 inches for parts of North Texas.

[asd123]

So the AO tanked the first half of October. It is about to tank again the second half.

I hope so,with record breaking low temps. Is there a website where I can monitor the AO?

Here you go:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.shtml

How long does it take for the weather in the South (Texas and Florida) to reflect the teleconnections? I never got an answer despite asking the question numerous times.

[Ralph's Weather]

More rain and even thunder this afternoon with the warm front, temps are still in the low 60s. I expect it to warm through the night though. Tomorrow look pretty cool with temps during the afternoon in the 60s.

What are yall's thoughts on our next system? It seems to me that we should see something with the Pacific typhoon and how the teleconnections have been by early next week.

[Ptarmigan]

I know Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) has an impact on Texas weather. Here is an historical PDO data going back to 1854.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconnections/pdo/

[South Texas Storms]

Surprised no one is posting here about the severe weather event tonight. Storms are really organizing west of DFW. Watch out for damaging winds tonight.

[weatherdude1108]

Well, I guess we won't have as big a fanfare as the DFW folks. But I received a rogue thunderstorm this morning, dropping two tenths of an inch, bringing my weekend total to 1.9 inches, so I'm good for now.

000
FXUS64 KEWX 130213
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
913 PM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014

.UPDATE...
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE SOUTH
PLAINS AND LOW ROLLING PLAINS. ONE AREA OF STORMS IS AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT...WHILE A SECOND LINE OF STORMS IS ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. MESOSCALE MODELS ARE IN FAIR TO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
BRINGING CONVECTION TO THE HILL COUNTRY POSSIBLY BY 09Z...AND
DEFINITELY SWEEPING THROUGH THE AREA ALONG AND NORTH OF I-10
BETWEEN 10 AND 18Z. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND CONVECTION AT
COOLEST TIME OF DAY AND RELATIVELY FAST SPEED OF THE FRONT SHOULD
LIMIT BOTH THE SEVERE AND HEAVY RAIN THREATS. AT THIS TIME...WE DO
NOT EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 50 MPH OR HAIL LARGER THAN PENNY-SIZE...AND
ONLY AN AVERAGE 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OF RAIN...ALTHOUGH ONE OR TWO
SPOTS COULD GET UP TO 1 INCH.

WE JUST SENT AN UPDATE TO REMOVE POPS BEFORE 06Z FROM THE ENTIRE
AREA. THERE IS NOT MUCH HOPE FOR POPS OTHER THAN STREAMER SHOWERS
BEFORE 12Z FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF I-35...BUT LEFT IN LOW POPS TO
COVER FOR THAT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT THE FRONT TO BE STRADDLING I-35
AROUND 14Z...AND OUT OF OUR EASTERN COUNTIES BY 18Z. WE MODIFIED
ALL FORECAST ELEMENTS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

&&

[TheProfessor]

The lightning strikes in this small storm over me are quite impressive, and this is just the small storm, I really hope My power doesn't go off.