Caribbean - Central America Weather

[Gustywind]

From SSD...

13/1145 UTC 16.7N 61.2W T3.0/3.0 GONZALO
13/0545 UTC 16.7N 60.4W T2.0/2.0 GONZALO

[Gustywind]

Hey Cycloneye, could post the latest best track please?

[msbee]

St Maarten's Juliana Airport has closed as of 9:00 AM.
Air France is on its way here from Paris.. obviously it will have to divert.

[artist]

St Maarten's Juliana Airport has closed as of 9:00 AM.
Air France is on its way here from Paris.. obviously it will have to divert.

Stay safe msbee, and all on the islands. Check in when you can.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GONZALO ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014
1100 AM AST MON OCT 13 2014

...GONZALO STRENGTHENING WHILE IT MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS...
...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS CONTINUE ON ANTIGUA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.2N 61.9W
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM NW OF ANTIGUA
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM ESE OF ST. THOMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE
WARNING FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND A HURRICANE WATCH FOR
ANGUILLA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR ST.
MARTIN...AND DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
GUADELOUPE...DESIRADE...LES SAINTES...AND MARIE GALANTE.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. MAARTIN HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR ST.
MAARTIN.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. MAARTIN
* ST. MARTIN
* ANGUILLA
* PUERTO RICO
* VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. MARTIN
* ST. BARTHELEMY
* ST. MAARTIN
* SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* BARBUDA
* ANTIGUA
* ANGUILLA
* ST. KITTS AND NEVIS
* MONTSERRAT
* PUERTO RICO
* VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS

[msbee]

It's getting breezy outside...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rUjfSAH ... e=youtu.be

[cycloneye]

Hi Barbara. You,Patti and all the people in St Maarten are now under a Hurricane Warning so stay safe and hoping nothing bad occurs.

[msbee]

Thanks Luis..yes, we know... everyone is taking precautions... be careful yourself..
after us, it heads towards you.

[fd122]

For sure there were some hurricane level gusts. At one point I could not see anything but white with howling wind. Most of my patio roof flew off and there was some minor flooding inside. We've had no power since around 1am. I've been hearing some trees and electrical lines are down around the island. I took some videos I may post online later.

[cycloneye]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM GONZALO LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1153 AM AST MON OCT 13 2014

...GONZALO STRENGTHENING WHILE IT MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS...

.NEW INFORMATION...
STORM INFORMATION AND POSITION.

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED
ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN LOCATIONS AND COASTAL
WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH CONTINUES FOR
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE
WATCH CONTINUES FOR ALL OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS COASTAL WATERS.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. PLEASE LISTEN CLOSELY FOR ANY FLOOD WARNINGS
THAT MIGHT BE IN EFFECT FOR YOUR AREA.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 11 AM AST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GONZALO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.2N...LONGITUDE 61.9W. THIS WAS ABOUT 280 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PR...OR ABOUT 190 MILES EAST OF SAINT
CROIX VI. STORM MOTION WAS WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH. STORM
INTENSITY WAS 65 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...ASSOCIATED WITH GONZALO WILL OVERSPREAD
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS MONDAY EVENING AND REACH EASTERN PUERTO
RICO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. 4 TO 8 INCHES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO...ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN PORTION
OF THE ISLAND. ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.

AS TROPICAL STORM GONZALO APPROACHES...SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATE TONIGHT MANLY OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. OVER PUERTO
RICO AND SAINT CROIX...GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE
LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MAINLY IN SQUALLY WEATHER AND RAIN BANDS.
MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH
SEAS UP TO 18 FEET.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR THOSE UNDER A WARNING...NOW IS THE TIME TO RUSH TO COMPLETION
PREPARATIONS FOR THE PROTECTION OF LIFE AND PROPERTY. EVACUATE IF
DIRECTED TO DO SO BY LOCAL OFFICIALS...OR IF YOUR HOME IS
VULNERABLE TO HIGH WINDS OR FLOODING.

FOR INTERESTS AT PORTS...DOCKS...AND MARINAS...URGENTLY COMPLETE
PRESCRIBED PREPARATIONS ACCORDING TO YOUR EMERGENCY OPERATIONS
PLAN FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES. IF YOU LIVE ON A BOAT...MAKE FINAL
PREPARATIONS FOR SECURING YOUR CRAFT BEFORE LEAVING IT. BE SURE TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBLE CLOSURE OF BRIDGES AND CAUSEWAYS.

REGARDING ANY COASTAL WATERS UNDER A WARNING...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
REMAIN IN PORT AND WELL SECURED.

FOR THOSE UNDER A WATCH...CONTINUE WITH YOUR PREPARATIONS AND
LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

REGARDING ANY COASTAL WATERS UNDER A WATCH...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
RETURN TO PORT OR SEEK SAFE HARBOR. DETERMINE THE BEST STRATEGY
FOR SECURING YOUR CRAFT.

CLOSELY MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS
FOR OFFICIAL STORM INFORMATION. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST.

FOR ADDITIONAL PRECAUTIONARY AND PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION...
PLEASE REFER TO THE DETAILED RECOMMENDATIONS RELATIVE TO YOUR
LOCATION AS FURTHER DESCRIBED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN SAN JUAN AROUND 3 PM AST...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

[msbee]

sxm experiencing high wind and moderate rain fall right now
met office reports wind ENE 25 MPH at the airport.
I am facing east and the wind around my house is higher than that.

[northjaxpro]

sxm experiencing high wind and moderate rain fall right now
met office reports wind ENE 25 MPH at the airport.
I am facing east and the wind around my house is higher than that.

Stay safe msbee and everyone else today in the NE Caribbean.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GONZALO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014
200 PM AST MON OCT 13 2014

...GONZALO CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN WHILE IT MOVES THROUGH THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE THIS EVENING...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 62.4W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SE ST. MARTIN
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM ESE OF ST. THOMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES

[Gustywind]

Thanks Luis..yes, we know... everyone is taking precautions... be careful yourself..
after us, it heads towards you.

Be safe and dry all my friends from the Northern Leewards, big kisses only for ladies

[Gustywind]

Increasing numbers for Gonzalo...

13/1745 UTC 17.6N 62.3W T3.5/3.5 GONZALO
13/1145 UTC 16.7N 61.2W T3.0/3.0 GONZALO

[cycloneye]

BREAKING NEWS:

TROPICAL STORM GONZALO TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014
225 PM AST MON OCT 13 2014

...NEW HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED...

THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE
WARNING FOR ANGUILLA. THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. MAARTIN HAS
ALSO ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR ST. MAARTIN.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[Gustywind]

BREAKING NEWS:

TROPICAL STORM GONZALO TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014
225 PM AST MON OCT 13 2014

...NEW HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED...

THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE
WARNING FOR ANGUILLA. THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. MAARTIN HAS
ALSO ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR ST. MAARTIN.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

oh damn, Barbara be on your guard bad boy Gonzalo is heading in your way now. Take care!

[Gustywind]

From our daily newspaper FranceAntilles:

The islands of the North in red vigilance

http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 290043.php

Gonzalo" is strengthened and its trajectory toward the Northern Islands is confirmed. It is not excluded that it reaches category Hurricane stage 1 in the next hours. Consequently, the stormy rains will spread from mid-day Monday and become very supported. They will continue the afternoon and the next night, bringing in significant amounts accumulated.
The wind will quickly grow. It will blow this afternoon at 80/100 km/h, temporarily 100/110 km/h in average wind, and 110/130 kph in gusts, temporarily 140 km/h. Mitigation will take place early in the night.
The sea will become very strong with waves of 4 to 5 m this afternoon. Cost, fast payback the next night.

[msbee]

current st maarten conditions 3:00 PM
rain
pressure 1005
wind NE 40 MPH

video taken from my house

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I9Qh9Z- ... e=youtu.be

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GONZALO ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014
500 PM AST MON OCT 13 2014

...GONZALO BECOMES A HURRICANE WHILE MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...
...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING LIKELY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.9N 62.9W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM SE OF ST. MARTIN
ABOUT 140 MI...230 KM ESE OF ST. THOMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* ST. MAARTIN
* ST. MARTIN
* ANGUILLA

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO
* VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. BARTHELEMY
* SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* BARBUDA
* ANTIGUA
* ST. KITTS AND NEVIS
* MONTSERRAT
* PUERTO RICO
* VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GONZALO WAS
LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND
GUADELOUPE RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.9 WEST.
GONZALO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF GONZALO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH
THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT...BE NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...AND EMERGE OVER THE OPEN
ATLANTIC OCEAN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

REPORTS FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS...AND GONZALO COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY WEDNESDAY
WHEN IT IS LOCATED OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC OCEAN.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES...20 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY MEASURED BY THE AIRCRAFT WAS
984 MB...29.06 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD THROUGH THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA TONIGHT AND
EARLY TUESDAY...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THIS
EVENING. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER
PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TODAY. NOTE THAT
WIND SPEEDS ATOP AND ON THE WINDWARD SIDES OF HILLS AND MOUNTAINS
ARE OFTEN UP TO 30 PERCENT STRONGER THAN INDICATED IN THIS
ADVISORY...AND IN SOME ELEVATED LOCATIONS CAN BE EVEN GREATER.

RAINFALL...GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 12
INCHES POSSIBLE...ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND THE BRITISH AND
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS PUERTO RICO...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE
FLOW IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY GONZALO ARE AFFECTING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
FROM DOMINICA NORTHWARD. SWELLS WILL BEGIN AFFECTING THE U.S.
AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS EVENING AND WILL REACH THE NORTHERN
COAST OF PUERTO RICO TONIGHT. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART