ATL: GONZALO - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

Dropsonde with 956mb pressure in 24 kt winds suggests a 954 pressure right now.

[ozonepete]

I think its got about another 5 knots to its peak of 115 you mention continued strengthening what peak are you thinking at nailing this at.

Well if I could nail hurricane strengths I would be a star in hurricane forecasting. Right now I really like the NHC reasoning so I'm going with the same they have: 120 knots by late tomorrow. I don't see any reason this storm can't reach that strength.

[Hammy]

Plane headed west, looks like the mission is over.

[Hammy]

Is there still some shear from the east? It looks like the eyewall may have taken in a very tiny amount of dry air, but just enough to halt intensification in the immediate few hours.

[ozonepete]

Is there still some shear from the east? It looks like the eyewall may have taken in a very tiny amount of dry air, but just enough to halt intensification in the immediate few hours.

? Don't see that at all. The eyewall is solidly built now and has never looked better. Also, remember that TCs, especially the stronger ones, often pulse up and down or pause during the strengthening process. You have to look at 3 hour or better yet 6 hour intervals to see the general pattern, just as we do with track to account for wobbles.

[EquusStorm]

It looks to me that the rapid intensification has slowed a little for the moment, though the eyewall looks a little more impressive than it did. I think it'll resume later, but with slightly less time to intensify overall. That said, I've certainly seen less organized category four storms.

[gatorcane]

Saved loop:

[ozonepete]

Is there still some shear from the east? It looks like the eyewall may have taken in a very tiny amount of dry air, but just enough to halt intensification in the immediate few hours.

If you look at ozonepete's image would have agree with shear hammy cause it clearly is very tilted.

No that's not tilting at all. On my last image what you see is that the core ring of thunderstorms was thick on the east side of the storm and much less so on the western side. But that has nothing to do with tilting of the circulation from the surface up to the higher levels. That just means the convection is spiraling and wrapping around the center and it is normally wider in coverage on one side as compared to the other. It's only in really well developed powerful storms where the convective ring is the same width on all sides of the eye. It doesn't have to be that way to get a category 4 but pretty much has to be to get a cat 5 though. And now watch the loops - the western side of the eye has thicker convection now. That tells you that it's still strengthening.

[EquusStorm]

110kt/954mb at 11pm.

[cycloneye]

[ozonepete]

Yikes for Bermuda.

[hurricanes1234]

Highest wind speed in an Atlantic hurricane since Ophelia from 2011.

[HurricaneRyan]

This El Nino definitely helped us. Getting us the first Cat 4 since Ophelia

[weatherfanatic]

This is one insane storm, 970mb to 954mb in 6 hrs wow. If this keeps intensifying who knows the track, I heard that once they get this strong you cannot always predict as well what it will do. ULL will more than likely keep it far away from the US, but I noted one ensemble member bringing iit over northern maine.

[CrazyC83]

This is one insane storm, 970mb to 954mb in 6 hrs wow. If this keeps intensifying who knows the track, I heard that once they get this strong you cannot always predict as well what it will do. ULL will more than likely keep it far away from the US, but I noted one ensemble member bringing iit over northern maine.

The negative tilt of the trough might try to turn it?

[beoumont]

NASTY!

[TheStormExpert]

First major hurricane since 2011 to last more than just one advisory, as well as become stronger than a minimal major hurricane!

[TheStormExpert]

NASTY!

Looks nasty, but I've seen better looking major hurricanes, but looks aren't always everything!

[weatherfanatic]

CrazyC83, that wouldnt be a good thing to have a sudden unforseen turn toward the US. Doubtful, the trough will keep it well offshore. Then again nothing is impossible in the world of the tropics, we all thought the season was dead as a doornail, and now we have near a cat 4!

[Hammy]

Definitely some internal structure problems going on now, it looks like the eyewall is probably open to the SW now, and the convective area is weakening slightly and strengthening. Despite what appeared earlier to be the start of RI, I dare say this may have peaked already, at least for the next 12-24 hours.