ATL: Ex-NINE - Models

[CrazyC83]

In late October, you can't always rely on normal rules for tracks. Storms at this time of year tend to be more likely to get caught in troughs or left behind and move erratically due to displaced ridges. This looks like one of those weird ones.

I'm leaning towards a storm starting east but the building ridge gets it buried in the Caribbean.

[RL3AO]

October in the Caribbean is always good for something weird.

[blp]

Here are the 12z Euro Ensembles.

[gatorcane]

Well the UKmet is still onboard south of Cuba with lots od moisture further North.

http://oi61.tinypic.com/w9cxz7.jpg

That's the 00Z run from today, not the 12Z. I can't seem to find the 12Z anywhere.

[xcool22]

FL is safe take it with a grain of salt.lol

[Nimbus]

Probably waiting till after the Yucatan landfall to declare it.
Good low level circulation but the shear is pretty strong.

[floridasun78]

gfs want say i like making monster hurr i am crying like wolf at night can you hear me howl

[floridasun78]

so we say 93l will history by sat as front come over kill it for good _________________
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[WPBWeather]

http://www.yr.no/kart/#lat=24.24456&lon ... roj=900913
EC high-res is sticking solid with a weak low that never gets cranking due to the close proximity to land and interaction with the trough and appears to just wash out as it moves to the N. Interesting to follow but those are the facts.

Well, not all the facts. These are lagging indicators--and only one data source. You are too pessimistic.

[gatorcane]

One other thing to keep in mind is that the global models are initializing with a 1004-1006MB or so low in the BOC but it is lower than that, around 1000MB. The 12Z ECMWF was 5MB too high on it's initialization.

Of course the ECMWF is also showing a very deep surge of continental air into the NW Caribbean next week so it wouldn't matter anyway but it overstated the deepness of the surge into the Gulf this week.

It's possible the ECMWF is right no doubt but I am going with the 50% chance of cyclone formation in the NW Caribbean next week, like the NHC has it now.

[Evil Jeremy]

EC high-res is sticking solid with a weak low that never gets cranking due to the close proximity to land and interaction with the trough and appears to just wash out as it moves to the N. Interesting to follow but those are the facts.

ECMWF is not the end all, be all.

[SouthFLTropics]

00z GFS is spinning up the Caribbean low again and appears to really start to get it going around 100 hours from now, just north of Honduras.

SFT

[SouthFLTropics]

At 120 Hours, coming together and barely moving just north of the Honduras/Nicaragua border.

[SouthFLTropics]

[SeGaBob]

I agree with the people on pages 9 and 10... so tired of the "until the Euro shows it I won't believe it" mess or "King Euro" and the pointless poll in the winter thread about it too. It may be right a lot but NO model is perfect.

[SouthFLTropics]

Headed North towards western Cuba and the Yucatan Channel at 150 Hours...

[SouthFLTropics]

And at 228 hours for a Halloween surprise...Hello Big Bend!!! Of course at this range we are in model fantasy land. I think the thing to take from this run is that the GFS is still spinning up something in the Caribbean about 100 hours from now and then bringing it North over the course of the next week. Timing and strength of the troughs will be key if something actually does form. Then again, nothing may form and the GFS may be up to its old convective feedback issues again. We should know by this weekend.

[N2FSU]

Quite the shift for the 00Z GFS. It will of course change countless times over the coming days, if anything even develops.

[floridasun78]

gfs not giving up on hurr

[DESTRUCTION5]

06 GFS Landfall just south of Tampa..180hrs. Seemingly strong cane.