ATL: Ex-NINE - Models

[floridasun78]

so data blockage affecting the forecast Models??? like gfs other day forecast hurr and it drop it

[ozonepete]

Does the Navgem or CMC get anything from GFS because they dropped it just as fast as the GFS. I thought they were independent.

On another note, amazing how the Euro is most bullish now. What a turn around in just a few hours.

But really, this happens all the time. We've seen the Euro, GFS, CMC and NAVGEM all do this many times over the years, where they drop or intensify a TC back and forth every 6 hours. And even with newer model improvements they all still do it a lot. It doesn't mean anything more than:
1) they don't have enough data or
2) the situation is genuinely borderline.

In either or both cases, they eventually come into agreement. So in every situation like this we just wait and see. It's not time to permanently dismiss one model as more reliable than another. We can all point to BIG failures by the GFS or the EURO, especially in cases like this.

Oh and I don't mean anyone in particular on here. Half the board does it. I can't even remember who hates what model but you'd think it was the Hatfields versus the McCoys, lol.

[ozonepete]

so data blockage affecting the forecast Models??? like gfs other day forecast hurr and it drop it

We have no idea because the NWS isn't telling us anything to go on.

[SFLcane]

18z HWRF developes TD9 or what ever is left rather quickly in the SW Caribbean.

[floridasun78]

OK i talk to one hurr forecaster say it hard tell if models input been affect by outage i talk to him about GFS he say look like gfs not been affect that much by outage their like using gfs one their like at nhc BUT too early to tell data outage have it yet time will tell he think td9 LIKELY stay weak in nw carribbean that be good news!!!!!!!!! (other data their no way tell how long outage going last their working at it in DC but nhc have live sat pic coming in so not affect by outage)

[ozonepete]

OK i talk to one hurr forecaster say it hard tell if models input been affect by outage i talk to him about GFS he say look like gfs not been affect that much by outage their like using gfs one their like at nhc BUT too early to tell data outage have it yet time will tell he think td9 LIKELY stay weak in nw carribbean that be good news!!!!!!!!! (other data their no way tell how long outage going last their working at it in DC but nhc have live sat pic coming in so not affect by outage)

Ok, thanks for the inside skinny. Looks like that means they still don't actually know if the outage is affecting model input and thus output but they don't think it is, or if it is, it isn't affecting the model output that much, right?

[floridasun78]

OK i talk to one hurr forecaster say it hard tell if models input been affect by outage i talk to him about GFS he say look like gfs not been affect that much by outage their like using gfs one their like at nhc BUT too early to tell data outage have it yet time will tell he think td9 LIKELY stay weak in nw carribbean that be good news!!!!!!!!! (other data their no way tell how long outage going last their working at it in DC but nhc have live sat pic coming in so not affect by outage)

Ok, thanks for the inside skinny. Looks like that means they still don't actually know if the outage is affecting model input and thus output but they don't think it is, or if it is, it isn't affecting the model output that much, right?

yes think outage maybe only be affect it little but when got fix their know more. but he think gfs got it right showing weaker system not strong as other run

[blp]

Saw this on another site. So all of that was missing from the runs today? Wow!

SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD
2331Z WED OCT 22 2014

NCEP IS NOW RECEIVING THE FOLLOWING NESDIS SATELLITE DATA FOR 00Z
MODEL INGEST..

NPP - CRiS AND ATMS DATA
GOES SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS
GOES RADIANCES
GOES SOUNDING PRODUCTS


THE FOLLOWING DATA TYPES CONTINUE TO BE UNAVAILABLE FOR THE
MODELS..

MODIS IR AND WV WINDS
OMI OZONE DATA
AIRS HYPERSPECTRAL SOUNDER DATA
COSMIC GPS-RADIO OCCULTATION DATA


NESDIS CONTINUES TO WORK ON RESTORING ALL THEIR SATELLITE DATA
PRODUCTS..

IT IS DIFFICULT TO ESTIMATE THE EXACT IMPACT OF THE SATELLITE
DATA OUTAGE ON NUMERICAL GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME.. BUT THE
DEGRADATION OF THE MODELS INCREASES WITH AN EXTENDED OUTAGE..

[chaser1]

Just for the moment, does anybody happen to have any links to Models originating from other countries? Brazil, China, etc?
I'm entirely confident that ours are working just fine, but..................

[HurriGuy]

Chinese model is showing basically the same thing the GFS is showing.

[HurriGuy]

Japanese model is showing nothing at all

[HurriGuy]

Japanese model is showing nothing at all

[chaser1]

Saw this on another site. So all of that was missing from the runs today? Wow!

SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD
2331Z WED OCT 22 2014

NCEP IS NOW RECEIVING THE FOLLOWING NESDIS SATELLITE DATA FOR 00Z
MODEL INGEST..

NPP - CRiS AND ATMS DATA
GOES SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS
GOES RADIANCES
GOES SOUNDING PRODUCTS
THE FOLLOWING DATA TYPES CONTINUE TO BE UNAVAILABLE FOR THE
MODELS..
MODIS IR AND WV WINDS
OMI OZONE DATA
AIRS HYPERSPECTRAL SOUNDER DATA
COSMIC GPS-RADIO OCCULTATION DATA

NESDIS CONTINUES TO WORK ON RESTORING ALL THEIR SATELLITE DATA
PRODUCTS..

IT IS DIFFICULT TO ESTIMATE THE EXACT IMPACT OF THE SATELLITE
DATA OUTAGE ON NUMERICAL GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME.. BUT THE
DEGRADATION OF THE MODELS INCREASES WITH AN EXTENDED OUTAGE..

WELL, THERE YOU HAVE IT?! I knew it, right from the gecko!!!! (spiral, )

thanks Blp, for the update

[floridasun78]

2. Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that a
non-tropical low pressure area is developing over the southeastern
Gulf of Mexico. The low is expected to move east-northeastward,
and development into a subtropical or tropical cyclone is
unlikely due to unfavorable upper-level winds. Regardless of
development, this system is likely to cause heavy rainfall and
locally gusty winds over western Cuba, the southern portion of the
Florida Peninsula, and the Florida Keys during the next couple of
days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

[gatorcane]

The 18Z FIM shows some development but it makes a sharp uturn quickly back into the Yucatan. I do wonder if the GFS-based models are having accuracy issues with each new run due to the sat outage?

[floridasun78]

The 18Z FIM shows some development but it makes a sharp uturn quickly back into the Yucatan. I do wonder if the GFS-based models are having accuracy issues with each new run due to the sat outage?

nhc specialist who i spoke to say it may be affect but we not sure 100% yet untill outage fix but say still getting some data but not all

[blp]

The 18Z FIM shows some development but it makes a sharp uturn quickly back into the Yucatan. I do wonder if the GFS-based models are having accuracy issues with each new run due to the sat outage?

Did you see my post above they were missing quite a few things. Still won't have a complete set tonight so forget the 00z run.

[SFLcane]

Most 00z models keep whatever is left of TD9 tangled down there...

edit: appears we are done with td9 last advisory on it.

[Dean4Storms]

Need to keep an eye on it if it reaches the western Carib. Sea, but there is just dwindling model support for anything to really take shape, even the Chinese model dropped it!

[tolakram]

6Z GFS vorticity: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

GFS drops it because it keeps the vorticity over land. Euro keeps it over water but does not develop it, however it still has the rubberband solution which brings the vorticity back into the Gulf at the end of the run. IMO if the GFS is wrong about the track, or the track was wrong due to lack of data, then it will probably develop it again in future runs.