ATL: Ex NINE

[stormlover2013]

Guys this is poof!!

[Sanibel]

Late tonight it will start tapping the Gulf of Honduras.

[gatorcane]

Not as much vorticity as it had early but I still see some broad cyclonic turning heading ESE in the South Central area of the Yucatan, convection building now on the E side of this broad low.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Good Afternoon,

There may not be a low level circulation in the Yucatan. But looking at the rain and clouds here in Miami something is causing them to move in opposite directions as if a low was forming in this area.

[SeGaBob]

I hope this reforms just to prove people wrong (not too strong though.) I'm tired of people being negative all the time.

[wxman57]

I hope this reforms just to prove people wrong (not too strong though.) I'm tired of people being negative all the time.

This was a very good year to be "negative", particularly in the Caribbean or the MDR. I'll be positive, though. I'm positive this system has very little chance of developing.

[TheStormExpert]

Michael Lowry on TWC says there is nothing to worry about here, and that this is UNLIKELY to redevelop.

[gatorcane]

Saved loop, convection on the increase near and east of the invest:

[Dean4Storms]

I see a weak circulation, don't know about anyone else. Hard to say though if it regenerates over the water once it gets there tomorrow.

[LarryWx]

I think this ship has sailed. At some point, one must wake up to reality. Also, never bet against Mr. "57". He's not nearly always right but his % is pretty darn good. Bones may be trotted out within the next day or so.

[TheStormExpert]

I see a weak circulation, don't know about anyone else. Hard to say though if it regenerates over the water once it gets there tomorrow.

The only chance it has at regenerating is if overall conditions (shear, dry air, etc.) do a 180° flip, which seems highly unlikely due to the passage of that strong front that has been well advertised to bring Cool/Dry Air advection into the NW Caribbean.

[TheStormExpert]

I think this ship has sailed. At some point, one must wake up to reality. Also, never bet against Mr. "57". He's not nearly always right but his % is pretty darn good. Bones may be trotted out within the next day or so.

Bones will be here very shortly by the looks of it.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Too many times have meteorologists turned a blind eye to a dead system just to have it turn around and bite them later (Katrina is a great example). While the GFS has backed off from the solution it was showing over the past few days, consider that wind shear across the West Caribbean will lessen as the troughing over the East United States lifts out (below 10kts in the days 4-5 period according to the SHIPS) and consider how warm the waters are and how deep the warm waters span in the West Caribbean. It's something to watch carefully, even if regeneration chances currently seem low.

[HURRICANELONNY]

Discussion by Dr. Jeff Masters:

By Saturday, some of the spin associated with TD 9 may emerge over the Western Caribbean, and we should carefully watch this area on Sunday and Monday for tropical cyclone development--though none of our reliable models were predicting development in their Thursday morning runs. A trough of low pressure connected to the large Nor'easter affecting the Northeast U.S. will inject a large amount of dry air into the Western Caribbean this weekend, discouraging development, and wind shear is expected to be a rather high 15 - 25 knots, which should keep any development slow. If development does occur, Honduras, Belize, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula would be most at risk of receiving impacts from the storm.

[northjaxpro]

Too many times have meteorologists turned a blind eye to a dead system just to have it turn around and bite them later (Katrina is a great example). While the GFS has backed off from the solution it was showing over the past few days, consider that wind shear across the West Caribbean will lessen as the troughing over the East United States lifts out (below 10kts in the days 4-5 period according to the SHIPS) and consider how warm the waters are and how deep the warm waters span in the West Caribbean. It's something to watch carefully, even if regeneration chances currently seem low.

Excellent discertation TA13. I agree with you with this post.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

I hope this reforms just to prove people wrong (not too strong though.) I'm tired of people being negative all the time.

For most its not being negative, its called being a realist. This was supposed to be the year of homebrews and have had absolutely nothing to even threaten besides Arthur.

[floridasun78]

Yucatan let see late friday what happen how low if any still their leave Yucatan

[ozonepete]

Nice convective blow-up starting in the right places around the low. I would put it at 20 or 30%. Note that the 12Z euro and GFS, although they don't develop it early next week, they do indeed show a closed low again east of the Yucatan on Saturday night/Sunday morning. I have a feeling this is going to play cat and mouse with us again lol.

[SFLcane]

Convection really exploding with this thing overland...

[HURAKAN]

the convective activity over the Yucatan is likely more related to the daily diurnal cycle than any influence the remnants of TD 9 could have