NIO: NILOFAR - Severe Cyclonic Storm

[jaguarjace]

Yesterday:

Not an official product from SSD. I created this product for informational purposes.
Today:

Not an official product from SSD. I created this product for informational purposes.

[HurricaneBill]

Moreover, I've heard this saying growing up in the city, that the city is built in a bowl like area below sea level i.e. if a cyclone is to hit Karachi, it would be inundated.

Sounds like New Orleans.

[jaguarjace]

INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT

Time of issue: 1330 hours IST
Dated: 28.10.2014
Bulletin No.: ARB02/2014/24

Sub: Very Severe Cyclonic Storm ‘NILOFAR’ over westcentral Arabian Sea.
Cyclone Alert for north Gujarat coast (Yellow Message)

The very severe cyclonic storm, ‘NILOFAR’ over westcentral Arabian Sea moved slowly northwestwards
in past 06 hours and lay centred at 1130 hours IST of 28th October, 2014 near latitude 15.9°N and
longitude 61.6°E, about 1110 km southwest of Naliya (Gujarat), 1150 km south-southwest of Karachi
(Pakistan) and 810 km east-southeast of Salalah (Oman). It would move north-northwestwards during next
12 hrs and then gradually recurve northeastwards and cross north Gujarat and adjoining Pakistan coast
around Naliya by 01st November forenoon. However, as the system would come closer to Gujarat coast, it
would weaken and cross the coast as a cyclonic storm.

The next bulletin will be issued at 1730 hrs IST of today, the 28th October, 2014.
http://www.rsmcnewdelhi.imd.gov.in/images/bulletin/indian.pdf

Impressive eye at 10Z:

Not an official product from SSD. I created this product for informational purposes.

[euro6208]

04A NILOFAR 141028 0600 15.9N 61.7E IO 90 956

[wxman57]

You don't often see an eye like that on a storm with less than 115-120kt winds.

[euro6208]

You don't often see an eye like that on a storm with less than 115-120kt winds.

04A NILOFAR 141028 1200 16.8N 61.8E IO 115 937

Agreed...12Z in...JTWC upps to category 4!

[supercane4867]

The Arabian sea is putting on quite a show this evening. I'd personally give Nilofar 130kt right now based on satellite presentation. JTWC only went with 115kt at 12z likely due to dvorak constraints

[euro6208]

Raw ADT at 6.9...close to Cat 5...

[Alyono]

IMD is saying this is a T 5.0

This is a serious flaw in their Dvorak analysis and IMO, shows why they are simply unqualified to be the RSMC. Their refusal to break constraints is a major flaw and demonstrates a lack of understanding of the Dvorak technique. It also shows that they keep T numbers too low during the developmental stages, that then results in too low of numbers later on, especially during the rapid intensification stage

[euro6208]

REMARKS:
281500Z POSITION NEAR 17.1N 61.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04A (NILOFAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 275 NM
SOUTHEAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE CONVECTION AROUND TC 04A HAS MARKEDLY IMPROVED AS DEEP
CONVECTION HAS FURTHER DEEPENED AND BANDING HAS SIGNIFICANTLY
INCREASED AROUND A DEFINED 12-NM EYE. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE INITIAL POSITION AND RECENT MOTION OF THE SYSTEM DUE TO THE
READILY APPARENT EYE FEATURE IN THE ABOVE ANIMATION WHILE THE
INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 115 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF THE SAME VALUE FROM PGTW AND KNES AND THE
IMPROVED STRUCTURE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO INDICATE A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AS THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW (05-
10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND STRONG POLEWARD AND
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. TC 04A IS TRACKING NORTH ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE
OF THE DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE EAST OF
THE SYSTEM AND IS EXPECTED TO CREST THE RIDGE AXIS IN THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS. AFTERWARDS, A MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WEAKEN THE STR WHICH WILL CAUSE THE CYCLONE
TO RECURVE NORTHEASTWARD. A BRIEF WINDOW OF FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE
SYSTEM TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY, REACHING A PEAK OF 125 KNOTS.
AFTERWARDS, SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASING VWS AND THE INTRUSION OF DRY
CONTINENTAL AIR FROM SOUTH ASIA WILL RAPIDLY ERODE THE SYSTEM, AS IT
BEGINS TO DISSIPATE BY END OF FORECAST WHILE IT MAKES LAND FALL INTO
WESTERN INDIA. ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE MODELS CONTINUE TO ACT ERRATIC
IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281200Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 282100Z, 290300Z, 290900Z AND 291500Z.//
NNNN

[mrbagyo]

[euro6208]

Interesting...

It is now the 3rd strongest cyclone in the Arabian Sea at 115 knots...behind Phet in 2010 Gonu in 2007...

[euro6208]

18Z Best Track

04A NILOFAR 141028 1800 17.8N 61.9E IO 115 937

Category 4...

[Alyono]

probably peaked as a 125 kt cyclone

[somethingfunny]

Even in this weakened state we could see some bad impacts in Pakistan and India from Nilofar, particularly if a major population center ends up just to the right of the center. This area doesn't get many landfalls at all.

Aside from the coastal surge/wind impacts, flooding is a major concern. Anytime you have a former major hurricane making landfall, the impacts often exceed what might be expected from a storm of similar strength that didn't have a powerful history. We've seen this time and time again with "formerly major" storms landfalling in the Atlantic and West Pacific.

[Alyono]

this thing is dead. Center very far west of the center now

keep watch on something developing in the south-central BOB, however,. That could cross over India and move into this area in about 10 days

[weatherwindow]

IMD is saying this is a T 5.0

This is a serious flaw in their Dvorak analysis and IMO, shows why they are simply unqualified to be the RSMC. Their refusal to break constraints is a major flaw and demonstrates a lack of understanding of the Dvorak technique. It also shows that they keep T numbers too low during the developmental stages, that then results in too low of numbers later on, especially during the rapid intensification stage

\


Good insights Pete....however a more basic question seems appropriate...what incentive is there for IMD to consistently underrepresent or at least lag system intensity??f....exclusive of diffferences in wind scaling, ie 10min vs 1min JTWC. IMD forecast appears at first blush to lag JTWF intensity by 24-36 hours. Most importantly, what advantage can be gleaned by continuing to systematically depress intensitly. These protocols could have a dramatic impact, possibly negative, on emergency mgmt deciscions and susequently endanger further lives and property...A head scratcher...Grtz from KW, Rich

[Alyono]

think it is as simple as IMD does not understand Dvorak analysis.

In 2008, they were saying Nargis was a category 1 equivalent with winds of 75 kts as it approached Myanmar. They did increase the winds to 90 kts at landfall. Myanmar may have prepared for a relatively weak cyclone when they got something that appeared to be a category 4 or 5 on satellite. We all know what happened.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Of which have cost 138,366 lives. That proves the effects of the major flaws in a meteorological agency.