WPAC: NURI - Post-Tropical
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- mrbagyo
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Re: WPAC: NURI - Typhoon
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- mrbagyo
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Re: WPAC: NURI - Typhoon
2014NOV02 143200 7.7 897.0 161.0 7.7 7.8 7.8 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 12.47 -82.64 EYE 15 IR N/A 17.59 -132.34 COMBO MTSAT2 25.2
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC, NHC and NWS products.
- mrbagyo
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Re: WPAC: NURI - Typhoon
from PAGASA
WEATHER BULLETIN NUMBER FIVE
TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT: TYPHOON “PAENG”
ISSUED AT 11:00 PM, 02 NOVEMBER 2014
(Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin to be issued at 11 AM tomorrow)
TYPHOON “PAENG” HAS INTENSIFIED FURTHER AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD.
Location of
eye/center:
At 10:00 PM today, the eye of Typhoon “PAENG”
was located based on all available data at 1,120 km
East of Tuguegarao City (17.5°N, 132.3
°E).
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 195 kph near the
center and gustiness of up to 230 kph
Movement: Forecast to move North at 13 kph.
WEATHER BULLETIN NUMBER FIVE
TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT: TYPHOON “PAENG”
ISSUED AT 11:00 PM, 02 NOVEMBER 2014
(Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin to be issued at 11 AM tomorrow)
TYPHOON “PAENG” HAS INTENSIFIED FURTHER AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD.
Location of
eye/center:
At 10:00 PM today, the eye of Typhoon “PAENG”
was located based on all available data at 1,120 km
East of Tuguegarao City (17.5°N, 132.3
°E).
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 195 kph near the
center and gustiness of up to 230 kph
Movement: Forecast to move North at 13 kph.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC, NHC and NWS products.
- TropicalAnalystwx13
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Re: WPAC: NURI - Typhoon
WDPN31 PGTW 021500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 20W (NURI) WARNING NR
11//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 20W (NURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 566 NM
NORTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT A
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE WITH A 10-NM EYE. A 020906Z WINDSAT
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A CORE OF CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH SYMMETRICAL
CONVECTIVE BANDS, THE MAJORITY OF WHICH ARE ON THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE SYSTEM. STY 20W HAS BEEN RAISED TO 130 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
SHOWS EXCELLENT DUAL CHANNEL POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL
POSITION BASED ON THE EYE FIX. STY 20W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A BROAD NORTH- SOUTH ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. STY NURI IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWARD ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS THEN BEGINNING A
SLOW AND WIDE NORTHEASTWARD RECURVE. DUE TO CONTINUED FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS INCLUDING RADIAL OUTFLOW, WARM SST AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT, AND SLOWER TRACK SPEEDS, STY 20W IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 145 KNOTS AT TAU 24.
BEYOND TAU 36, EXPECT LOWER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND INCREASED
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR TO LEAD TO A DECREASE IN OVERALL INTENSITY.
DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72 LENDING
HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST TRACK.
C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, THERE CONTINUES TO BE HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL FORECAST TRACK, WITH DYNAMIC MODELS HANDLING
THE BLOCKING NATURE OF THE REDEVELOPING STR WELL. THE SYSTEM WILL
BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) JUST PRIOR TO TAU 72 AND
COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 120 AS STY NURI ACCELERATES EAST OF JAPAN,
WEAKENING ALONG ITS TRACK.//
NNNN
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 20W (NURI) WARNING NR
11//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 20W (NURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 566 NM
NORTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT A
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE WITH A 10-NM EYE. A 020906Z WINDSAT
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A CORE OF CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH SYMMETRICAL
CONVECTIVE BANDS, THE MAJORITY OF WHICH ARE ON THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE SYSTEM. STY 20W HAS BEEN RAISED TO 130 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
SHOWS EXCELLENT DUAL CHANNEL POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL
POSITION BASED ON THE EYE FIX. STY 20W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A BROAD NORTH- SOUTH ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. STY NURI IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWARD ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS THEN BEGINNING A
SLOW AND WIDE NORTHEASTWARD RECURVE. DUE TO CONTINUED FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS INCLUDING RADIAL OUTFLOW, WARM SST AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT, AND SLOWER TRACK SPEEDS, STY 20W IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 145 KNOTS AT TAU 24.
BEYOND TAU 36, EXPECT LOWER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND INCREASED
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR TO LEAD TO A DECREASE IN OVERALL INTENSITY.
DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72 LENDING
HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST TRACK.
C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, THERE CONTINUES TO BE HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL FORECAST TRACK, WITH DYNAMIC MODELS HANDLING
THE BLOCKING NATURE OF THE REDEVELOPING STR WELL. THE SYSTEM WILL
BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) JUST PRIOR TO TAU 72 AND
COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 120 AS STY NURI ACCELERATES EAST OF JAPAN,
WEAKENING ALONG ITS TRACK.//
NNNN
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Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
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- Category 5
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- Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2012 10:43 am
Re: WPAC: NURI - Typhoon
Should be at least 150kt for the next JTWC advisory
TPPN10 PGTW 021816
A. SUPER TYPHOON 20W (NURI)
B. 02/1732Z
C. 17.7N
D. 132.3E
E. ONE/MTSAT
F. T7.5/7.5/D3.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 01A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY CMG YIELDS
AN E# OF 6.5. ADDED 1.0 FOR EYE ADJUSTMENT TO YIELD A DT OF
7.5. MET YIELDS A 5.5 AND PT YIELDS A 6.5. DBO DT. BROKE THE
CONSTRAINTS OF +2.0 TNO CHANGE OVER 18HRS, +2.5 TNO CHANGE OVER
24HRS, AND MET +/- 1.0 TNO OF MET DUE TO SYSTEMS RAPID
INTENSIFICATION.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
BERMEA
TPPN10 PGTW 021816
A. SUPER TYPHOON 20W (NURI)
B. 02/1732Z
C. 17.7N
D. 132.3E
E. ONE/MTSAT
F. T7.5/7.5/D3.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 01A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY CMG YIELDS
AN E# OF 6.5. ADDED 1.0 FOR EYE ADJUSTMENT TO YIELD A DT OF
7.5. MET YIELDS A 5.5 AND PT YIELDS A 6.5. DBO DT. BROKE THE
CONSTRAINTS OF +2.0 TNO CHANGE OVER 18HRS, +2.5 TNO CHANGE OVER
24HRS, AND MET +/- 1.0 TNO OF MET DUE TO SYSTEMS RAPID
INTENSIFICATION.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
BERMEA
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Re: WPAC: NURI - Typhoon
155kt
WP, 20, 2014110218, , BEST, 0, 179N, 1323E, 155, 907, ST, 34, NEQ, 170, 160, 140, 150, 1004, 240, 12, 0, 15, W, 0, , 0, 0, NURI, D,
WP, 20, 2014110218, , BEST, 0, 179N, 1323E, 155, 907, ST, 34, NEQ, 170, 160, 140, 150, 1004, 240, 12, 0, 15, W, 0, , 0, 0, NURI, D,
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- TropicalAnalystwx13
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Re: WPAC: NURI - Typhoon
A temporary warming of cloud tops doesn't necessary corresponds to weakening. 17z AMSU pass indicates no signs of ERC in near term
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Re: WPAC: NURI - Typhoon
18z JTWC forecast brings the intensity up to 170kt in 12 hours....certainly unrealistic
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- Hurricane_Luis
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- TropicalAnalystwx13
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Re: WPAC: NURI - Typhoon
Last edited by supercane4867 on Sun Nov 02, 2014 5:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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- Professional-Met
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Re: WPAC: NURI - Typhoon
Just saw this. WOW! CIMSS holding at 155 knots now with CI# at 7.5 and Final T# = 7.2
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