Texas Fall-2014

[ronyan]

Not sure I understand the NWS reasoning that the arctic front will not make it to Brownsville. Are they assuming a weaker high associated with the arctic front? A 1050+ mb would seem to go against that thinking.

[aggiecutter]

Ouch!, poor Weatherman57:

[TheProfessor]

Thanks for the link Porta, Im going to book mark it, but yeah, that definitely looks interesting.

[Rgv20]

Let the fun begin! 1 of the 50 12zECMWF Ensemble Members forecast 3 to 4 inches of Snow next Thursday into Friday for McAllen!

[TheProfessor]

3-4 inches in McAllen

[Janie2006]

I've been burned one too many times on outbreaks like this in the past, so I think I'll wait a bit before jumping on it. In other words, let me see a few more model runs first.

You could argue the models are catching up to us! Thats the beauty of of this board lately compared to the past when one or two runs stir something. Now more times than not we have knowledged posters select a period in which something may occur with good reason and watch the models fall into place

That's true, we've been watching the evolution of this sort of pattern for the winter since July and August. Perhaps I'm thinking it's too good to be true, seeing pieces fall so neatly into place. In addition, my model knowledge is clearly a bit outdated, as I started thinking that GFS still has that pronounced cold bias, bringing that 540 line much too far south during the autumn and winter. Well, I'd forgotten that it was supposed to be corrected quite a while ago. This sort of outbreak in mid-November, extending as far south and east as the models want to bring it is rare, really.

I think some of the local WFOs are going to sit on things for a few more days and some of them will certainly downplay it, at least for the moment. KMOB is notorious for doing that during the winter, for example. As we get closer I expect that they will start ringing the bells.

[Ntxw]

Still some brutal runs from the ENS/control in additional to the OP (not to mention mischief on the Euro with highs in the 30s). Would be one of the great November arctic attacks.

The EPO has gone negative. The AO is about to begin its nose dive. In addition we have another -SOI tank going on (this index has precipitation indications). We will probably see a couple fronts in succession each one a little stronger than the one before.

[asd123]

Still some brutal runs from the ENS/control in additional to the OP (not to mention mischief on the Euro with highs in the 30s). Would be one of the great November arctic attacks.

The EPO has gone negative. The AO is about to begin its nose dive. In addition we have another -SOI tank going on.

I saw those said images on Tropical Tidbits, and yes they were brutally cold. What really ticks me off (live in Orlando, FL) is that the cold air doesn't seem to make much southern progress on ECWMF ENS once it gets to northern Georgia, Texas. The ECMWF does towards the end show a southern plunge of the cold.

[Ntxw]

Still some brutal runs from the ENS/control in additional to the OP (not to mention mischief on the Euro with highs in the 30s). Would be one of the great November arctic attacks.

The EPO has gone negative. The AO is about to begin its nose dive. In addition we have another -SOI tank going on.

I saw those said images on Tropical Tidbits, and yes they were brutally cold. What really ticks me off (live in Orlando, FL) is that the cold air doesn't seem to make much southern progress on ECWMF ENS once it gets to northern Georgia, Texas. The ECMWF does towards the end show a southern plunge of the cold.

It's a known bias of the models. Cold air that dense and deep will just continue to plow, there isn't lee cyclogenesis to slow it down and with a -EPO it will bleed very easily. But it may wait for a southern storm (not yet depicted but usually accompanies arctic fronts as such) to pass before the gates are opened.

[asd123]

Still some brutal runs from the ENS/control in additional to the OP (not to mention mischief on the Euro with highs in the 30s). Would be one of the great November arctic attacks.

The EPO has gone negative. The AO is about to begin its nose dive. In addition we have another -SOI tank going on.

I saw those said images on Tropical Tidbits, and yes they were brutally cold. What really ticks me off (live in Orlando, FL) is that the cold air doesn't seem to make much southern progress on ECWMF ENS once it gets to northern Georgia, Texas. The ECMWF does towards the end show a southern plunge of the cold.

It's a known bias of the models. Cold air that dense and deep will just continue to plow, there isn't lee cyclogenesis to slow it down and with a -EPO it will bleed very easily. But it may wait for a southern storm (not yet depicted but usually accompanies arctic fronts as such) to pass before the gates are opened.

Also if I may add, looking at the ECMWF, that is some major cold 192 and beyond, 0 degrees 850 mb or colder carving into Mexico from Texas and North, while in the Southeast (Alabama Mississippi,) cold air (0 degrees 850 mb or colder) is plunging southeastward.

[gboudx]

if that were to happen, the citrus crop in southern La and along the Gulf Coast could be in danger.

[Ntxw]

No love for the JMA?

[weatherdude1108]

Interesting write-up on the potential Superstorm.

http://www.wunderground.com/news/bering ... fb110614-4

[asd123]

No love for the JMA?

Yikes
Image courtesy of Tropical Tidbits


That 0 degree 850 mb line or colder is carved deep into southern Texas with around -10 850 mb in northern Texas. In the Southeast (Alabama and Mississippi) 0 degree or colder 850 mb is plunging southeastward. This model is very similar to the ECMWF. Anyone else notice that?

Also this model is predicting a 1045 mb high over the plains!

[TeamPlayersBlue]

As of now its not showing any precip with the system but typically it doesnt show it till 5 days out, right?

That JMA looks pretty sweet. The high is HUGE but i dont know if that scenario will play out.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

So im catching up on my models after being in SA with a client all day, it looks like 10 days out the Canadian and Euro want to bring ANOTHER big cold shot down. 850 MB almost all the way through Houston. This is insane.

[ronyan]

0z Parallel GFS shows a 1051 mb high in northern Montana @ 120 hrs.
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... _us_21.png

0z GFS is slightly slower with the movement of the high but has 1048 mb entering the US @ 126 hrs.
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... _us_22.png

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I hope this happens, and then happens again in Early Jan

[TheProfessor]

I hope this happens in December too, White Christmases for Everybody!!!

[srainhoutx]

All system are go for a pleasant weekend and the upper low currently just S of the Big Bend finally weakens and shears out. The pesky upper low which helped in steering the remnants of EPAC TC Vance NE across Texas brought and 8 foot rise in the Edwards Aquifer in a 48 hour period. This sort of steady rainfall was sorely needed across Central Texas. A cold front will arrive on Saturday reinforcing the pleasant Fall temperatures before the big pattern change we've all heard about by now ahead for next week.



The Global Ensembles and Operational computer guidance is in remarkably good agreement the former Super Typhoon Nuri will transition into a powerful Extratropical Storm near the Bering Sea. In the water vapor satellite imagery above, the storm is now entering the far upper left of the imagery and should wrap up and be rather impressive via satellite visible pictures over the weekend into Monday. Winds near or above 80 MPH with wave heights nearing 50 feet are forecast and expect near the Aleutian Island and the Bering Sea. The Super Storm will buckle the jet stream and allow very impressive cold air that has been building across Eurasia/Siberia due to extremely heavy October snowfall near record territory to be pulled across the Arctic into North America and spill very far south into Texas, Mexico and eventually into the Yucatan and Cuba later next week. The Canadian Prairies have been getting snow over the past several weeks, but the Northern/Central Plains are lacking any snow, so airmass modification will occur. That said the coldest air of the season will plunge S along and E of the Continental Divide and remain entrenched with reinforcing shots of cold air with the fast moving Northerly flow aloft and embedded upper air energy (shortwaves) bring cold fronts in fairly rapid progression during next week. The teleconnection indices are aligning in a very impressive fashion that bring a very - Arctic Oscillation/AO (-4+) -North Atlantic Oscillation/NAO (-1.5+) -East Pacific Oscillation/EPO (-4+) +Pacific North America Pattern/PNA (+3) regime together next week and just beyond the mid November timeframe. What this means for the Southern Plains and Texas is a Ridge of High Pressure build off the West Coast into Eastern Alaska into the Arctic while a very deep trough develops across Central and Eastern North America. The Pattern become blocked across the Atlantic which would allow the cold air to sweep E and miss our Region as we see in most Fall and Winter patterns. The fly in the ointment is the sub tropical jet across the Pacific and what it may or may not bring as El Nino continues to unfold.

There is convection associated with a tropical disturbance (96E) several hundred miles off the W Coast of Mexico and the track guidance is suggesting this disturbance remains rather weak, but does turn it NE toward the Pacific Coast of Mexico next week. At the same time the computer guidance is 'sniffing' a robust piece of upper level energy (shortwave) under cutting the Ridge out W and developing a low pressure system along the front range of the Southern Rockies near New Mexico/Colorado. This happens later next week (around November 15th -17th) after the Arctic front arrives late on Monday into Tuesday. IF, and it is a big if the models such as the European are correct a big Winter like storm may develop across the Panhandle and cross the Southern Plains ushering in even colder air and build a snow cover across the Plains. If that happens, then much less airmass modification is a possibility. The guidance is suggesting another stronger Arctic front following this energy, so we have a lot of moving parts to follow on our weather plate and should lead to some interesting discussions as next week unfolds.