Caribbean - Central America Weather

[msbee]

Rain has stopped on St Maarten/St. Martin
Is it over, Gusty?
Looks like the system is more East of us now.
Roads are still flooded though, and police and fire have been rescuing stranded people.

http://sxmislandtime.com/front-page-hea ... homes.html

[chrisjslucia]

Midday here in St Lucia and it is still pouring with rain. Thought we might be at the end of it by now but radar shows we have some time to go and with more to the south east of Barbados. With no wind the system is taking forever to pass over. Ground saturated and I suspect we have flooding and land slips in some areas. This reminds me of the trough we had Christmas Eve.

I suspect Windwards and Leewards are in for a few more hours of this yet. Good luck one and all and be safe!

[Gustywind]

Rain has stopped on St Maarten/St. Martin
Is it over, Gusty?
Looks like the system is more East of us now.
Roads are still flooded though, and police and fire have been rescuing stranded people.

http://sxmislandtime.com/front-page-hea ... homes.html

It's not really over i think, but seems that an improvement is to come in your area. The line of showers that passed on me was brief but intense. Sky is overcast and grey. n Looking at the radar Martinica, Ste Lucie and even St Vincent are getting a lot of rain now. Some of them are drifting on Dominica and Guadeloupe.

I don't have more infos concerning St Martin and St Barth as the weather forecast is maybe on the verge of being edited, matter of minutes?maybe. Anyway, i will keep your informed if i've more infos.

[Gustywind]

Midday here in St Lucia and it is still pouring with rain. Thought we might be at the end of it by now but radar shows we have some time to go and with more to the south east of Barbados. With no wind the system is taking forever to pass over. Ground saturated and I suspect we have flooding and land slips in some areas. This reminds me of the trough we had Christmas Eve.

I suspect Windwards and Leewards are in for a few more hours of this yet. Good luck one and all and be safe!

Good analysis Chrislucia that's what i was saying in my latest post. The real improvement should may come tonight or even tommorow morning if this system take it time!

[Gustywind]

Msbee good news for you as the Northern Leewards back off the orange alert and stays now at yellow code

[Gustywind]

Here is the chart with the colors related to the alerts. Guadeloupe stays in yellow while Martinica continues to be in orange alert.

http://www.meteofrance.gp/vigilance-antilles-guyane

[msbee]

Msbee good news for you as the Northern Leewards back off the orange alert and stays now at yellow code

[Gustywind]

Msbee good news for you as the Northern Leewards back off the orange alert and stays now at yellow code

That's a good sign

[abajan]

Certainly been a memorable year for you Msbee, having to contend with a hurricane and now this! Hopefully, it'll be smooth sailing from here to the end of the year.

[Gustywind]

Certainly been a memorable year for you Msbee, having to contend with a hurricane and now this! Hopefully, it'll be smooth sailing from here to the end of the year.

Yeah, let's hope and think that nothing else will loom during the next 15 days that's enough

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
250 PM AST SAT NOV 8 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRES OVER HISPANIOLA WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS HAVE HAD A DIFFICULT TIME DEVELOPING TODAY
DUE TO REMAINING LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE FROM MCS LAST NIGHT WHICH
WAS EVIDENT ON 00Z AND STILL ON 12Z JSJ SOUNDINGS. MODELS SHOW
ANOTHER SURGE IN MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY LATE TONIGHT ASSOCIATED
WITH A LOW-LEVEL JET CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS. THIS LOW-LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE NORTHWESTWARD
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AND AIM AT SOUTHWEST PR LATE TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY. THIS IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN A NEW ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
T-STORMS OVER THE CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS AND MUCH OF PR SUNDAY.
NEGATIVE FACTORS THAT COULD INHIBIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
ARE RAPIDLY WEAKENING OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND OVERALL HEIGHT
RISES OVER THE AREA. TROF AXIS WILL ALSO HAVE SHIFTED EAST OF THE
AREA BY 12Z SUN WITH FORCING DIMINISHING THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY.
ONE FAVORABLE FACTOR FOR FLOODING IS SATURATED SOILS FROM RAINS
THE LAST 7 DAYS WHERE MAX RAINFALL TOTALS OF 6-8 OF RAIN HAVE
OCCURRED.

FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUE UNDER
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MID
NEXT WEEK BUT MOISTURE WILL BE IN SHORT SUPPLY.

&&

.AVIATION...A NEW ROUND OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS COULD AFFECT THE
PR...USVI AND LEEWARD TERMINALS TONIGHT AND SUN WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING FROM EAST TO WEST SUNDAY EVENING. MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...A 1414Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED WINDS 25-30 KT OVER THE
ANEGADA PASSAGE. SEAS AT BUOY 41052 LOCATED SOUTH OF SAINT JOHN
WERE AT 7 FT EARLIER BUT HAVE DIMINISHED NOW TO 6 FT. EXPECT WINDS
15-20 KT AND SEAS 4-6 FT. T-STORMS WILL RETURN TO THE CARIBBEAN
COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 87 79 86 / 70 70 40 20
STT 82 82 82 82 / 70 60 30 20

[msbee]

Certainly been a memorable year for you Msbee, having to contend with a hurricane and now this! Hopefully, it'll be smooth sailing from here to the end of the year.

Thanks abajan
I sure hope so!

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
428 AM AST SUN NOV 9 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEAST TODAY. A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL
MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. ABUNDANT
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING. LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS AFFECTED
PUERTO RICO FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT IN GENERAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE
MINIMAL. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE THE RESULT OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH JUST ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THIS MORNING. THIS TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL ISLANDS
LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS THIS HAPPENS...AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE LESSER
ANTILLES...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY TO THE WEST...ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THESE FEATURES WILL MAINTAIN A MOIST AN
UNSTABLE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE SATURATED
SOILS FROM PREVIOUS RAINS...WILL MAINTAIN A HIGH POTENTIAL FOR FLASH
FLOODING TODAY. AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. AS
THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION...FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT-BKN LAYERS OVER 10 KFT WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ACROSS
MOST OF THE FCST AREA. SHRA/TSRA OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS COULD
AFFECT THE PR...USVI AND LEEWARD ISLANDS TERMINALS THRU THE FCST
PERIOD WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING FROM EAST TO WEST LATE SUNDAY
EVENING. MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN TSRA. THE 9/00Z TJSJ
SOUNDING...INDICATED A LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WITH 18 KTS AT
1 KFT...LIGHT AND VARIABLE BETWEEN 7-15 KFT...THEN WEST SOUTHWEST AT
30 KTS AND HIGHER ABOVE 18 KFT.

&&

.MARINE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO
GENERATE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS TODAY.
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS. WEATHER CONDITIONS IMPROVING ON MONDAY. A MODERATE
SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 78 87 76 / 70 40 20 20
STT 88 79 88 79 / 60 30 20 20

[Gustywind]

Good news, all three islands (Guadeloupe, Martinica and the Northern Leewards) are in yellow alert
http://www.meteofrance.gp/vigilance-antilles-guyane

[cycloneye]

Rain has stopped on St Maarten/St. Martin
Is it over, Gusty?
Looks like the system is more East of us now.
Roads are still flooded though, and police and fire have been rescuing stranded people.

http://sxmislandtime.com/front-page-hea ... homes.html

Wow Barbara and Patti,that was a lot of flooding and mudslides that took place there but with no victims.That image of a fish inside a house is hilarious. I can say that the worse of the bad weather is over for the Eastern Caribbean islands and a return to normal weather conditions will occur starting on late Sunday.

[Gustywind]

Here are some pics of the floodings in Guadeloupe especially in an area of Pointe-à-Pitre called " Fouillole" near the University.
http://www.guadeloupe.franceantilles.fr ... 0#pubs_top

[Gustywind]

Another pics related to the AWESOME floodings who have occured at St Martin.


http://www.guadeloupe.franceantilles.fr ... 294189.php

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
215 PM AST SUN NOV 9 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD THROUGH TUE. A SHORTWAVE-
TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT.
ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD THU THRU NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCT-NMRS SHOWERS EXPECTED TONIGHT MAINLY OVER THE
CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS...EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PR AND ST. CROIX
ASSOCIATED WITH A SURGE IN TRADE WINDS. SHARP DRYING IS EXPECTED
MON THROUGH MON NIGHT UNDER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH FAIR WX
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. DEVELOPING CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW OVR THE FL
PANHANDLE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SW ATLC MON NIGHT THROUGH WED AND
PUSH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE AREA TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED
NIGHT. DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE...THIS IS EXPECTED TO HAVE VERY
LITTLE EFFECT ON SENSIBLE WX OTHER THAN BRING TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE
OF DEGS BELOW 90F. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS AGAIN THU THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND SUSTAINING AN OVERALL DRY WX PATTERN ALTHOUGH WITH A
EXPECTED INCREASE IN WINDS NEXT WEEKEND THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
NOCTURNAL ENHANCEMENT OF SHOWERS ON WINDWARD SIDE OF ISLANDS.


&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS AT JMZ AND JBQ FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH VCSH.
OTHERWISE...VFR AT ALL OTHER TAF SITES.


&&

.MARINE...FRESH TRADE WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH MON NIGHT WITH SEAS
4-6 FT. WINDS DIMINISH THROUGH THU WITH SEAS GRADUALLY SUBSIDING
2 TO 4 FT BY THU. WINDS GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN AT THE END OF THE
WEEK OR NEXT WEEKEND.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 87 76 88 / 40 20 20 20
STT 79 88 79 88 / 30 10 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
436 AM AST MON NOV 10 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A NE-SW RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL
SHIFT INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL PASS
OVER THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS OVER THE WEEKEND.

AT MID LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC WILL
DRIFT SLOWLY TOWARD THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND DISSIPATE BY THE
WEEKEND. MEANWHILE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
WEAKEN BUT CONTINUE TO STRETCH FROM THERE ACROSS THE GREATER
ANTILLES AND INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED
IN THE MID LAYERS.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE EASTERN AND
CENTRAL ATLANTIC GENERATING MODERATE TRADE WIND FLOW. MOISTURE
HOWEVER BECOMES RELATIVELY SHALLOW AND REMAINS SO POSSIBLY EVEN
THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS COVERED MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN AND
SOME OF EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PUERTO RICO SINCE MIDNIGHT.
AMOUNTS WERE GENERALLY LESS THAN ONE THIRD OF AN INCH. MODEST
SHOWERS OF LIMITED EXTENT ARE EXPECTED ON THE WINDWARD SLOPES OF
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS WEEK IN THE LATE
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS...WHILE A ONLY A FEW HEAVY SHOWERS
ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP IN WEST AND NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO AND ALONG
THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WEAK BANDS OF
MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST IN THE 1000-700 MB
LAYER ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND SEVERAL WEAK SHORT WAVES WILL
ENHANCE THE SHOWER ACTIVITY...BUT AMOUNTS WILL STILL REMAIN
LIMITED IN NATURE AND CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRIER THAN LAST WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD AT ALL TAF SITES. VCSH IN AND AROUND TJPS/TIST/TISX/TNCM/TKPK
POSSIBLE TIL AT LEAST 10/06Z. THE 10/00Z TJSJ SOUNDING...INDICATED
EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 5-20 KTS BELOW 2 KFT.

&&

.MARINE...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SOMEWHAT TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...BUT SOME 6 FOOT SEAS OR LOCAL WINDS ABOVE 17 KNOTS WILL
OCCUR AROUND LAND AREAS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 78 88 76 / 20 30 30 50
STT 88 78 88 79 / 30 20 20 50

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
302 PM AST MON NOV 10 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN TUE AS UPPER
LOW OFF OF THE FL COAST SENDS A S/W TROUGH THROUGH THE AREA WED-
WED NIGHT. STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD AT THE END
OF THE WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...SHARP DRYING EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH CLEAR
SKIES EXPECTED. UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW LOCATED OFF OF THE FL
ECOAST WILL WEAKEN THE UPPER RIDGE WITH TROF AXIS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WED-WED NIGHT. THIS ONLY TO RESULT IN A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE TUE AND WED. MAIN EFFECT FROM THIS
TROUGH WILL BE TO KNOCK DOWN TEMPS A FEW DEGS AND BRING THEM
CLOSER TO NORMAL. TROF AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA THU WITH UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING DURING THE WEEKEND. A SURGE IN TRADE WINDS
LATE SAT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AN INCREASE
IN NOCTURNAL SHOWER ACTIVITY ON WINDWARD AREAS. OVERALL...MAINLY FAIR
WEATHER EXPECTED REST OF THIS WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS NEXT FIVE DAYS WITH NO SIG WX.

&&

.MARINE...TRADES STRENGTHEN THROUGH THIS EVENING THEN DIMINISH
LATE TUE NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SEAS 3-5 TONIGHT AND
TUE THEN SUBSIDE 2-4 FT WED THROUGH SAT.

&&

.CLIMATE...MAXT SO FAR TODAY AT LMM SJU INTL APRT HAS BEEN 89F
ONE DEG SHY OF THE RECORD. TEMPS COME DOWN TUE-THU TO MORE NORMAL
LEVELS SO NO RECORDS EXPECTED.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 80 88 79 86 / 10 20 40 40
STT 81 82 81 81 / 10 20 20 20