Texas Fall-2014

[Ralph's Weather]

The 06Z GFS Parallel is showing a very cold rain Saturday with a second batch of moisture on Sunday when temps are below freezing. After all of that it is showing what looks to be low 20s Monday morning. It has been trending colder with every run for the past day at least. Then like always it starts to warm things up through the end of the run which we all know likely will not happen.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

According to Wundermap, front is through Cypress. 62 now with 14 MPH NW wind. Here we go boys!

[Tireman4]

The temperature drops are faster than first thought. Look at College Station.



It was 65F this morning at 6:53. One hour later, 51F. It is 48F and still dropping....wow....temperature busts today....

[TheProfessor]

Yeah the 6z parallel GFS really builds up the snow through out a lot of the U.S.

[Ralph's Weather]

Yeah the 6z parallel GFS really builds up the snow through out a lot of the U.S.

It appears just about certain that we will stay way below average for the next few weeks if not much longer. That plus what appears to be ample moisture seems likely to produce some kind of winter mischief around here before too long around here. Now if that comes this weekend or sometime later is yet to be seen.

[srainhoutx]

Some quick thoughts regarding the medium/longer range pattern as we head into next week into the Thanksgiving timeframe. It appears that this pattern change has some staying power with a reloading surge of colder air moving S across Northern Canada heading S. Some of the Global computer models suggest a near 1048mb Arctic High will settle into Montana next Monday into Tuesday offering a second serge of cold air into Texas. The computer models are still sorting out an upper level disturbance currently over the N Pacific heading toward the Pacific NW/California this weekend.

There may be some slight moderation a bit closer to what we would expect normally this time of year later next week, but there are some indications that the very strong blocking regime reestablishes across the Polar Region as yet another big cold Upper Ridge builds into Alaska and the NW Territories of Canada near the day 9-10 timeframe. If that happens, we may see another push of very chilly air near the Thanksgiving Holiday period. The general upper storm track appears to bring upper level disturbance into Washington/Oregon/N California from the N Pacific dropping SE into the Southern Rockies and embedded upper air disturbances dropping S from W Central Canada with the Arctic jet into the Northern and Central Plains. The sub-tropical jet stream appears rather noisy as El Nino develops further lending to potential for areas of low pressure developing along the NW and Central Gulf Coast heading NE along the Atlantic Coast. A slowly building snowpack across the Plains and the Rockies appear likely into the next couple of weeks. Simply put, it appears that Winter is arriving a bit earlier than many expected and it could be rather chilly and stormy as we head into late November and early December. We will see.

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

MY TURN TO LAUGH AT YOU FOLKS!!!!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L0MK7qz13bU

SNOW AND LOTS OF IT FOR TEXAS PLEASE MOTHER!!!!

[Ntxw]

Brrr winter is here! 1050mb high currently sitting in Western Canada

[Rgv20]

12zNAM suggesting for my area we might be stuck in the mid to upper 40s from Wednesday Evening to Midday Friday!

[ronyan]

Brrr winter is here! 1050mb high currently sitting in Western Canada

That is a beautiful sight! I noticed last night that a few reporting stations in Canada were at 30.97 in hg, ~1049mb.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Front is through Victoria than my house. I live about 3 miles from 59 lol. Coriolis effect?

[ronyan]

Front is through Victoria than my house. I live about 3 miles from 59 lol. Coriolis effect?

It's knocking on your door, should be through there in a few minutes.

[Ntxw]

Front is through Victoria than my house. I live about 3 miles from 59 lol. Coriolis effect?

Ouachita Mountains

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

The 12Z GFS Parallel is showing light snow across north Texas Sunday afternoon.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Front is through Victoria than my house. I live about 3 miles from 59 lol. Coriolis effect?

Ouachita Mountains

I'll never forget that from last year. So weird.

It just came through. Wish my anenometer was working. Breeze is picking up

[Jarodm12]

Just need some model support but im getting excited about Sunday and Monday

[ouamber]

Look now, because the Parallel GFS will probably change, but I sure would love for this to happen in OK and TX!!!

[Ralph's Weather]

Look now, because the Parallel GFS will probably change, but I sure would love for this to happen in OK and TX!!!

Every run for the past day plus has trended more and more this direction and it seems to match the pattern that we are in.

[gboudx]

The little donut hole over DFW is about right.

[Ntxw]

Every run for the past day plus has trended more and more this direction and it seems to match the pattern that we are in.

The shortwave is there, it was always there in various forms. Some model runs kick off a coastal low and throw back a lot of moisture and other times it doesn't and mostly dry. Either way there will be several pieces of energy to watch.