Texas Fall-2014

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Officially 32 in Sugar Land. First freeze of the season. One of the earliest that i can remember as well

[Texas Snowman]

It looks like the guidance is hinting at some light precipitation being generated next Monday night/Tuesday morning for southern Oklahoma, and possibly northern Texas, as a piece of energy moves across the area. We may have to keep a close eye on this system as well as temperatures. Anyone else seeing this?

From OKC NWS forecast discussion this afternoon:

"MODELS SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH ALSO DIGGING AND MOVING ACROSS THE SW
U.S. LATER THIS WEEK AND MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS
WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS... ESPECIALLY IN SE PORTIONS OF THE FA... FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. MODELS THEN BEGIN TO DIFFER AS ANOTHER UPPER WAVE
APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION CAUSING A COLD FRONT TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA. THE ECMWF IS FASTER WITH THIS FRONT WHICH WOULD
HAVE AN AFFECT ON THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. MODELS ALSO SHOW SOME
LIGHT PRECIP MAY BE POSSIBLE IN NE PARTS OF THE FA WITH THIS WAVE
ALTHOUGH RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF THE PRECIP WILL REMAIN
NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. HOW FAST THE COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE
FA COULD HAVE AN IMPACT ON PRECIP TYPE. RIGHT NOW HAVE A MENTION OF
A BRIEF PERIOD WHERE RAIN MAY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT
BEFORE PRECIP MOVES EAST OF THE FA."

[TexasBreeze]

This has nothing to do with Texas, but is an interesting tidbit. Some places just off the great lakes Erie and Ontario could see 70+ inches of snowfall with the lake-effect machine cranked up this week. I have family up there in Cleveland, OH! I could not imagine having that much snow!!!

http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.p ... GvVrcnnbqA

[Ntxw]

This has nothing to do with Texas, but is an interesting tidbit. Some places just off the great lakes Erie and Ontario could see 70+ inches of snowfall with the lake-effect machine cranked up this week. I have family up there in Cleveland, OH! I could not imagine having that much snow!!!

http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.p ... GvVrcnnbqA

Godly snow amounts. I think the latest report per TWC was 51" in Cheektowaga, NY. I wouldn't be suprised if someone from the Buffalo southern suburbs end up with over 100". Just crazy Lake effect event.

Can we petition to expand Lake Texoma N/S? Maybe stream some lake enhanced snows from northers

[gboudx]

I know a guy in Cheektowaga. I'll need to contact him to see what's going on.

[gatorcane]

18Z PGFS dives the Arctic blast south at the end of the run in the long-range. 240 hours below with all of Texas colder than normal:

[northjaxpro]

Quite a discrepency with the GFS Parallel run at 240 hours and the 216 hr GFS . GFS Parallel dives the Arctic air down the spine of the Rockies and across the Great and Southern Plains. The 18Z 216 hr GFS has the trough digging over the Eastern CONUS all the way into the NE Gulf of Mexico on Thanksgiving Day.

[wxman57]

Good news (for me) today! Even though the high clouds nearly prevented it, the low for IAH managed to briefly reach 32F this morning. That means I won the first freeze contest, something I've been trying to do for about 15 years. I had the earliest date (Nov. 21st) of any entry, as I had feared the best analogs for 2014 were the extremely cold winter of 1976-77 and the early season cold of 1993-1994.

Now, the bad news (for you cold-lovers). I no longer wish for cold air. I'm back in full HEAT mode!

Time to get to work in driving this cold air back to the Arctic where it belongs!


CLIMATE REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
431 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

...THE HOUSTON INTERCONTINENTAL CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR NOVEMBER 18 2014...
VALID TODAY AS OF 400 PM LOCAL TIME.

TEMPERATURE (F)
TODAY
MAXIMUM 55 310 PM
[b] MINIMUM 32 550 AM[/b]

[gboudx]

What did you win? A wicker basket for your bike?

[wxman57]

What did you win? A wicker basket for your bike?

The prize is a $100 bill and the satisfaction of finally winning one of these contests after so many years. I missed out on the first cold front contest by 90 minutes, and Hanna knocked me out of the hurricane contest. Thought I had those two won last month.

[ravyrn]

Now, the bad news (for you cold-lovers). I no longer wish for cold air. I'm back in full HEAT mode!

Time to get to work in driving this cold air back to the Arctic where it belongs!

Not if my anti-Wxman57 avatar has anything to say about it!

[Texas Snowman]

18Z PGFS dives the Arctic blast south at the end of the run in the long-range. 240 hours below with all of Texas colder than normal:

http://i57.tinypic.com/3588ar7.png

Now that is PERFECT bike riding weather, don't you think?

[BigB0882]

I have a friend who lives in the Buffalo area and he posted a picture of his backyard, the snow is up to the fence. Not sure how tall the fence is but I'd say they have a good 5-6 feet of snow!!!! The place is just completely buried. They can't even leave their house, no one can. Is it sick and twisted that I am a little jealous? lol

[Ntxw]

I have a friend who lives in the Buffalo area and he posted a picture of his backyard, the snow is up to the fence. Not sure how tall the fence is but I'd say they have a good 5-6 feet of snow!!!! The place is just completely buried. They can't even leave their house, no one can. Is it sick and twisted that I am a little jealous? lol

Not at all! From a distance it's envious but from up close I'm sure it's a nightmare. Once you're forced to be stuck at home and can't even go out in it, that makes it obsolete on the fun part. I think it's too much at once .

Not if my anti-Wxman57 avatar has anything to say about it!

Kudos on the avatar, love it!

[Nairobi]

Is it ok to post maps from tropicaltidbits.com given his copyright notice? Thanks.

[KatDaddy]

One more chilly morning across SE TX with temps ranging from the mid 30s to low 50s along the coast. The pattern change begins today as the winds veer SW and then SE over the upcoming days pumping in GOM moisture and warming temps into the 70s beginning tomorrow into the weekend. Energy around the Gulf Alaska low will dive across CA and develop into a sharp trough which will eventually setup over N MX and then lift NE across TX Saturday. The potential continues to increase for a severe weather event across TX beginning across W Central TX Friday and spreading across Central and SE TX Saturday. More details the next several days as the event approaches.

[Portastorm]

Now, the bad news (for you cold-lovers). I no longer wish for cold air. I'm back in full HEAT mode!

Time to get to work in driving this cold air back to the Arctic where it belongs!

Not if my anti-Wxman57 avatar has anything to say about it!

ravyrn, that avatar is an absolute Storm 2K Classic!

[cigtyme]

Something is definitely funky when it gets 26deg here in Houma La in November. Hell it's been 80 degrees for Thanksgiving before around here. This winter might be one you remember for a while.

[wxman57]

I think that this winter is not going to be a pleasant one for me. I remember the 1976-77 winter well. The Mississippi froze down to St. Louis. New Orleans reported ice floating down the river at times. There was measurable snow in Miami. Meanwhile, U.S. troops on Arctic maneuvers in Alaska suffered from heat exhaustion. Perhaps I should move to Alaska this winter?

A picture from East Lancaster (near Buffalo) below. The good news for them is that the lake-effect snow will stop early this year when the lakes freeze over.

[gatorcane]

Wow amazing picture Wxman. That is cold! The Parallel GFS and ECMWF runs continues to show another arctic intrusion into the lower 48 again east of the rockies in the long-range. Day 10 below. Timing and details need to be worked out.

00Z GFS 10 Day:


06Z GFS 10 Day:


00Z ECMWF 10 Day: