WPAC: HAGUPIT - Post-Tropical

[dhoeze]

God bless our country. Hope this system recurves already and dissipates as to prevent any disaster.

As of current gurus, what is your prognosis on this system, will this recurve (JTWC) or head west (Euro)?

Thanks gurus for your response and assistance.

[gatorcane]

WPAC IR flash loop below showing super typhoon Hagupit rapidly approaching the Philippines...pray for a recurve for them as this looks extremely dangerous

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/wpac/flash-avn.html

[RL3AO]

From the 12z runs, which was a while ago. Still shows how much further south the ECMWF is compared to the other models.

[ozonepete]

From the 12z runs, which was a while ago. Still shows how much further south the ECMWF is compared to the other models.

Sadly more of the track forecasts are bending towards the Euro. It's running out of time to recurve and it if it doesn't slow down soon it will stay under the trough to the north and could plow right into the Philippines. If the trough doesn't grab it then it might not even slow down much. That would be the worst case scenario because it probably won't weaken at all if it doesn't slow up.

[euro6208]

What does hagupit needs to do to get an 8.0 Dvorak?

[ozonepete]

God bless our country. Hope this system recurves already and dissipates as to prevent any disaster.

As of current gurus, what is your prognosis on this system, will this recurve (JTWC) or head west (Euro)?

Thanks gurus for your response and assistance.

Look what I just posted above. The 00Z model runs, which will be available for us around 03Z, should give us a better idea, but we may have to wait for tomorrow morning's runs at 12Z to really be sure where it's going.

[cycloneye]

TPPN11 PGTW 040033

A. SUPER TYPHOON 22W (HAGUPIT)

B. 03/2332Z

C. 9.88N

D. 133.73E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T7.5/7.5/S0.0/24HRS STT: S1.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 03A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. VIS EMBEDDED DISTANCE >60NM
YIELDING E#7.0. EYE ADJUSTMENT WELL DEFINED CIRCULAR EYE. +.5.
YIELDING DT OF 7.5. MET IS AT 6.5, RAPID INTENSIFICATION AND PT
IS AT 6.0. CONSTRAINTS BROKEN DUE TO RAPID INTENSIFICATION.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
03/1911Z 9.30N 135.00E SSMS


FRYE

[cycloneye]

JTWC new peak intensity is 170kts

[dexterlabio]

Now a violent typhoon as per JMA.



I know PAGASA and the local government units are trying to prevent panic because the memories of Haiyan are still fresh in the minds of people.....but saying in local news live that this is far weaker than Haiyan is a bit too much to disperse panic...IMO, that's like telling people not to mind about this.

[Filipinas50]

Doomed by geography and climate change, the Philippines faces another powerful cyclone similar to Bopha in 2012 and Haiyan in 2013 ...

[Alyono]

Last year, I was horrified when Haiyan maintained its intensity during its eyewall replacement.

This year, I have no words for how Hagupit intensified during its eyewall replacement

[dexterlabio]

That JTWC track though. What models are showing that Luzon scenario to happen, maybe aside from the GFS? Because I haven't seen a few model simulations showing that to happen. It's also interesting that JTWC seems to ignore the ECMWF run in their prognostics. I mean the ECMWF was the first to show an intense typhoon making landfall this week and so far it's been very consistent.


EDIT: If somehow the JTWC forecast track verifies, it will be waste of time transferring the APEC summit from Albay to Manila. Both cities look to be under threat, anyway.

[ozonepete]

That JTWC track though. What models are showing that Luzon scenario to happen, maybe aside from the GFS? Because I haven't seen a few model simulations showing that to happen. It's also interesting that JTWC seems to ignore the ECMWF run in their prognostics. I mean the ECMWF was the first to show an intense typhoon making landfall this week and so far it's been very consistent.


EDIT: If somehow the JTWC forecast track verifies, it will be waste of time transferring the APEC summit from Albay to Manila. Both cities look to be under threat, anyway.

Hi Dexter, always good to "see" you back here, though unfortunately under very bad circumstances again. But really, to be fair to JTWC, they have been using a blend of the ECMWF and GFS and gradually adjusting the track westward. Remember that there are a lot of other models and most of them leaned towards the GFS solution. You can't just go heavily with one model when so many others disagree, even if that model has been showing a better track record. It's just not prudent. I think they have been doing a pretty good job.

[gatorcane]

That JTWC track though. What models are showing that Luzon scenario to happen, maybe aside from the GFS? Because I haven't seen a few model simulations showing that to happen. It's also interesting that JTWC seems to ignore the ECMWF run in their prognostics. I mean the ECMWF was the first to show an intense typhoon making landfall this week and so far it's been very consistent.


EDIT: If somehow the JTWC forecast track verifies, it will be waste of time transferring the APEC summit from Albay to Manila. Both cities look to be under threat, anyway.

Hi Dexter, always good to "see" you back here, though unfortunately under very bad circumstances again. But really, to be fair to JTWC, they have been using a blend of the ECMWF and GFS and gradually adjusting the track westward. Remember that there are a lot of other models and most of them leaned towards the GFS solution. You can't just go heavily with one model when so many others disagree, even if that model has been showing a better track record. It's just not prudent. I think they have been doing a pretty good job.

In this case the EC and UKMET keep it west. I find it hard to believe a blend of those models will get this wrong at this point. On the Atlantic side a blend of those two models usually is correct. I hope the GFS is right and this spares the Philippines somehow.

[ozonepete]

JTWC new peak intensity is 170kts

This is really depressing. The forecast track keeps bending southward towards the more populated areas and worst of all it is not forecast to slow down as much now. If that pans out it will most likely not weaken after it peaks. Really beginning to look like a significant disaster. Very sad.

[404UserNotFound]

Just realized that if this makes landfall at its current intensity, this would be the third year in a row with a 150kt+ landfall in the Philippines, and the fourth such year in the past five.

[dexterlabio]

Hi Dexter, always good to "see" you back here, though unfortunately under very bad circumstances again. But really, to be fair to JTWC, they have been using a blend of the ECMWF and GFS and gradually adjusting the track westward. Remember that there are a lot of other models and most of them leaned towards the GFS solution. You can't just go heavily with one model when so many others disagree, even if that model has been showing a better track record. It's just not prudent. I think they have been doing a pretty good job.

Yeah it's good to see you guys visiting the WPAC thread again. I've been here since 2009 and every year these howlers seem to frequent the Philippines.

The reason I doubt the latest JTWC track is because I haven't seen any recent model run that shows possible Manila threat. The 18z GFS run is close but still it has the recurve thing going on.

[CrazyC83]

I wonder, if we had Recon there, what they would find?

[cycloneye]

WDPN31 PGTW 040300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 22W (HAGUPIT) WARNING NR
13//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 22W (HAGUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 153 NM
NORTH OF KOROR, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (SMI)
DEPICTS VERY TIGHTLY-CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WITH A 20NM EYE
FEATURE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI ANIMATION AND
AFOREMENTIONED EYE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 155 KNOTS DUE TO DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES BY PGTW AND
NSOF. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT STY 22W
REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW. STY HAGUPIT IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. STY HAGUPIT WILL MAINTAIN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR THOUGH TAU 48. EXPECT
FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, ALONG WITH CONTINUALLY FAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS TO ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO SLOWLY FURTHER
INTENSIFY, TO A PEAK OF 170 KNOTS DURING THIS PERIOD. BY TAU 72,
EXPECT THE SUPER TYPHOON TO SLOW DOWN AS A SMALL MIDLATITUDE TROUGH
DEEPENS ACROSS THE EAST CHINA SEA AND CREATES A SMALL WEAKNESS IN
THE STR ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO TRACK SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS OVERALL IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72, WITH
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK.
C. AFTER TAU 72, THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT BIFURCATION IN THE
MODELS. THE GFS AND COAMPS MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING THE
SYSTEM MOVING POLEWARD THROUGH THE WEAKNESS IN THE STR THOUGH TAU
120 BEFORE SLIGHTLY TURNING BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST UNDER THE
NORTHEASTERLY SURGE THROUGH THE EAST CHINA SEA. THE ECMF AND NOW THE
GFDN TRACKER, HOWEVER, HAS THE SYSTEM CONTINUING TO TRACK WEST INTO
CENTRAL PHILIPPINES INDICATING THAT THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IS NOT
PRONOUNCED ENOUGH TO SIGNIFICANTLY INFLUENCE THE TRACK OF STY
HAGUPIT. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK ENCOMPASSES ELEMENTS OF BOTH OF
THESE SCENARIOS. UNDERSTANDING THAT THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
INTENSIFY WELL ABOVE MODEL GUIDANCE, AS WELL AS INCREASING IN SIZE,
THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY THAT THE SYSTEM WILL START TO TURN
POLEWARD INTO THE WEAKNESS IN THE STR THOUGH TAU 96. HOWEVER, BEYOND
THAT, THE ELONGATED STR IN COMBINATION WITH THE SURFACE LEVEL
NORTHEASTERLY SURGE WILL CONTRIBUTE IN PUSHING THE SYSTEM ON A
WESTWARD TRACK INTO SOUTHERN LUZON. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK DUE TO THE SIGNIFICANT BIFURCATION IN
THE MODELS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ALTERNATE FORECAST SCENARIO,
WITH THE SYSTEM EITHER SIGNIFICANTLY RECURVING EAST OF THE
PHILIPPINES OR TRACKING WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PHILIPPINES.//
NNNN

[Alyono]

in 96 hours, this may be near Palawan