WPAC: HAGUPIT - Post-Tropical

[ohno]

Hah 18zGFS basically spells the end of Hagupit.

Do you have pics?

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Hah 18zGFS basically spells the end of Hagupit.

Do you have pics?

Latest run shows dissipation after hitting Luzon. Just look for GFS 18z run West Pacific

[xtyphooncyclonex]

IMO the trough is too far north, in any way, to affect the typhoon's track.

[ozonepete]

IMO the trough is too far north, in any way, to affect the typhoon's track.

No, my friend. The trough has reached well into the Philippines now. That's why your countrymen are complaining about the "cold". Manila today has had temps in the 70s Fahrenheit and dewpoints of 62F. Dewpoints below about 70F are killers for typhoons. That is very dry air and Hagupit is sucking that dry air in as we speak. It rises up into the thunderstorms around the center and causes the thunderstorms to collapse. Besides the land interaction which causes much weakening, you have dry air getting ingested into the circulation. That is why you see all of the convection disappearing. The two together should kill it and most likely it will be too weak to recover over the South China Sea.

[cycloneye]

Down to 90kts.

22W HAGUPIT 141207 0000 11.9N 124.7E WPAC 90 956

[xtyphooncyclonex]

JTWC sure needs to adjust south. Eyewall seen hitting north part of Leyte..

[xtyphooncyclonex]

OFF TOPIC

But, quite important

Mactan Airport [in some sites] is mistaken for Masbate Airport, and actually those are the weather conditions over the former airport. I really noticed this error a few years ago. Winds here are coming from our NW/SW and we are facing south...

Ok! Thanks pal. You solved the mystery. That data is definitely from Mactan, not Masbate. So it is all the way down by you at Cebu. Now it makes sense.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Mactan is warmer than Cebu, because the former is considered a 'desert island' whereas the latter is inland

It is "chilly" here in Cebu, temp is now 22.6C per Wunderground while MACTAN is 1.4C warmer. It feels weird, raining and windy

[xtyphooncyclonex]

VECO is our Electricity source

VECO: Heavy rains and wind disrupted our services in some areas in Lahug, Guadalupe, Capitol Site, Candulawan, Labangon, Babag, Balirong, Tungkil, Pangdan, Jaclupan, Tingub, Tipolo and San Carlos Heights. Our crew are working on restoring power in affected areas.

[dexterlabio]

Live footage in Tacloban shows that the worst of the winds had passed. The reporter says the strong winds they had been experiencing since last night already went down at this hour. There are plenty of wind damage, downed posts and frames, but the storm surge which they are most wary of didn't pan out. So far, no reported casualties. So that is good news over that city.

[ozonepete]

Live footage in Tacloban shows that the worst of the winds had passed. The reporter says the strong winds they had been experiencing since last night already went down at this hour. There are plenty of wind damage, downed posts and frames, but the storm surge which they are most wary of didn't pan out. So far, no reported casualties. So that is good news over that city.

They didn't have a big storm surge because the winds were parallel to the shore (northerly) and then blew offshore (westerly) against the surge. The winds never got behind the surge (easterly) to push it inland. This was one failing with the euro forecast.

[ozonepete]

I am really having trouble getting any wind reports at all. The Weather Channel says there was one report of 78 mph sustained at Guiuan but other than that I'm not seeing any reports. That hardly justifies a 100 knot typhoon at landfall. Personally I never thought this was 100 knots at landfall. At the most 80-90 knots based on ADT assessments and its appearance. But surely there are more wind reports than just that one?

And of course even much weaker winds can cause havoc so all of you there need to stay safe and be very careful until this has passed. Be careful!!

[xtyphooncyclonex]

I am really having trouble getting any wind reports at all. The Weather Channel says there was one report of 78 mph sustained at Guiuan but other than that I'm not seeing any reports. That hardly justifies a 100 knot typhoon at landfall. Personally I never thought this was 100 knots at landfall. At the most 80-90 knots based on ADT assessments and its appearance. But surely there are more wind reports than just that one?

And of course even much weaker winds can cause havoc so all of you there need to stay safe and be very careful until this has passed. Be careful!!

Guiuan is much far south of the eye, even farther south than Tacloban. It may justify because Guiuan is 100km [at least] away from the eye, yet winds of 78 mph battered the area.

[ozonepete]

I am really having trouble getting any wind reports at all. The Weather Channel says there was one report of 78 mph sustained at Guiuan but other than that I'm not seeing any reports. That hardly justifies a 100 knot typhoon at landfall. Personally I never thought this was 100 knots at landfall. At the most 80-90 knots based on ADT assessments and its appearance. But surely there are more wind reports than just that one?

And of course even much weaker winds can cause havoc so all of you there need to stay safe and be very careful until this has passed. Be careful!!

Guiuan is much far south of the eye, even farther south than Tacloban. It may justify because Guiuan is 100km [at least] away from the eye, yet winds of 78 mph battered the area.

Also Guiuan is on a very narrow peninsula sticking out into the water so it has no land to provide friction slow-downs or buildings to block the wind. But still, I would like to see more reports. There must be some somewhere, I hope. Without documentation all we have is speculation...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

WTPN31 PGTW 070300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 22W (HAGUPIT) WARNING NR 025
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070000Z --- NEAR 11.9N 124.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.9N 124.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 12.4N 123.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 13.1N 122.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 13.5N 120.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 13.5N 119.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 13.6N 116.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 12.9N 113.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 11.1N 109.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
070300Z POSITION NEAR 12.0N 124.4E.
TYPHOON 22W (HAGUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 270 NM SOUTHEAST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070900Z, 071500Z, 072100Z AND
080300Z.//
NNNN

[RL3AO]

Haven't kept up with the reports today. With how slow its moving, I can imagine we're looking at some impressive rainfall totals.

[Alyono]

I am really having trouble getting any wind reports at all. The Weather Channel says there was one report of 78 mph sustained at Guiuan but other than that I'm not seeing any reports. That hardly justifies a 100 knot typhoon at landfall. Personally I never thought this was 100 knots at landfall. At the most 80-90 knots based on ADT assessments and its appearance. But surely there are more wind reports than just that one?

And of course even much weaker winds can cause havoc so all of you there need to stay safe and be very careful until this has passed. Be careful!!

So, hurricane force winds well south of a westward moving typhoon do not justify 100 kts? If anything, that CONFIRMS the intensity as at least a category 3 at landfall. This is especially so since those winds are almost certainly 10 minute winds

[ozonepete]

I am really having trouble getting any wind reports at all. The Weather Channel says there was one report of 78 mph sustained at Guiuan but other than that I'm not seeing any reports. That hardly justifies a 100 knot typhoon at landfall. Personally I never thought this was 100 knots at landfall. At the most 80-90 knots based on ADT assessments and its appearance. But surely there are more wind reports than just that one?

And of course even much weaker winds can cause havoc so all of you there need to stay safe and be very careful until this has passed. Be careful!!

So, hurricane force winds well south of a westward moving typhoon do not justify 100 kts? If anything, that CONFIRMS the intensity as at least a category 3 at landfall. This is especially so since those winds are almost certainly 10 minute winds

Oh, no, wait. There's misunderstanding going on here.

1. Guiuan is 40 miles south of the center so I'm not sure that's "well south" since the "eye" was very large at that time, and we still have no data on how large the eye (or central calm area) was. If it was 30 or 40 miles across than Guiuan may have been in the eyewall.
2. Here's this from the New York Times this evening:
The typhoon made landfall by 9:15 p.m. near the town of Dolores on eastern Samar Island, Philippine government forecasters said. The storm had weakened somewhat as it approached land, with maximum sustained winds of 108 miles per hour near its center on Saturday afternoon, according to the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration.

108 mph is 90 knots and high category 2. Actually I haven't heard any weather agency at all say that it was more than a high cat 2. Does anyone know of such a statement so far? I just said that I was expecting higher wind reports and surprised that there aren't any so far. And that's why I said that no documentation is mere speculation. Just trying to get answers based on data. I'm sure we'll get some better data sooner or later.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

I am really having trouble getting any wind reports at all. The Weather Channel says there was one report of 78 mph sustained at Guiuan but other than that I'm not seeing any reports. That hardly justifies a 100 knot typhoon at landfall. Personally I never thought this was 100 knots at landfall. At the most 80-90 knots based on ADT assessments and its appearance. But surely there are more wind reports than just that one?

And of course even much weaker winds can cause havoc so all of you there need to stay safe and be very careful until this has passed. Be careful!!

So, hurricane force winds well south of a westward moving typhoon do not justify 100 kts? If anything, that CONFIRMS the intensity as at least a category 3 at landfall. This is especially so since those winds are almost certainly 10 minute winds

Oh, no, wait. There's misunderstanding going on here.

1. Guiuan is 40 miles south of the center so I'm not sure that's "well south" since the "eye" was very large at that time, and we still have no data on how large the eye (or central calm area) was. If it was 30 or 40 miles across than Guiuan may have been in the eyewall.
2. Here's this from the New York Times this evening:
The typhoon made landfall by 9:15 p.m. near the town of Dolores on eastern Samar Island, Philippine government forecasters said. The storm had weakened somewhat as it approached land, with maximum sustained winds of 108 miles per hour near its center on Saturday afternoon, according to the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration.

108 mph is 90 knots and high category 2. Actually I haven't heard any weather agency at all say that it was more than a high cat 2. Does anyone know of one? I just said that I was expecting higher wind reports and surprised that there aren't any so far. And that's why I said that no documentation is mere speculation. Just trying to get answers based on data. I'm sure we'll get some better data sooner or later.

But in reality, it made landfall as 115 mph.

[mrbagyo]

here's some wind report