Texas Winter 2014-2015

[srainhoutx]

Taking a look at the global models shows no arctic air diving into the lower 48 for the forseeable future. I am inclined to think that with the analogs we should start seeing a change towards the end of this month and into January. If you look back several months going back into the summer, we saw the "polar vortex" even then, last one was in November, so you got to think there will be at least one this winter. I am thinking January could be the month we see another whopper coming out of Canada which could send much of the lower 48 east of the Rockies into a deep freeze. Time will tell.

The use of the term 'polar vortex' is so misused and became popular last year with the media/social media. We have a polar vortex now and it is positioned where it typically is...over the N Pole.

On to what we can expect the rest of the month...No changes in the general theme expected regarding our sensible weather well into the extended range. The Pacific will deliver a lot of southern tracking storms over the next couple of weeks and the sub tropical jet looks to remain rather noisy. That mean disturbances tracking E across the Southern tier of States will continue bringing chances of rain and snow across the higher elevations of the Southern Rockies and the potential for wrap around wintery mischief across the Southern Plains and the Panhandles of Texas and Oklahoma. This sort of pattern looks to continue right into the pre Christmas timeframe.

As we near Christmas and New Years Eve, the longer range Global ensembles remain steadfast suggesting a significant pattern change capable of delivery much colder air across much of N America. There are indications that the Southern jet and Polar Jet may merge bringing a very stormy and colder pattern across the Desert SW, New Mexico, Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Louisiana, Missouri on E. Such a pattern has been expected and actually forecasted by most long range Winter Forecasters and it does look like those forecast are right on schedule. As always, there remains a lot of uncertainty and we cannot not accurately 'predict' the sensible weather beyond the 3-5 day range. That said the various teleconnection indices we look to are strongly suggesting we are well on our way to an interesting and active pattern as we end 2014 and begin 2015.

[Ntxw]

And to add on the polar vortex, the true polar vortex is actually up in the stratosphere. We never truly see it at the surface. The polar vortexes that are dubbed by the media is actually a PV (polar vortex) anomaly. It could be any system that traverses as height falls across the lower latitudes. The purpose of the true PV is to control the 500mb pattern. When the strat PV sits strong at the npole way up high there is zonal flow around it below, thus no blocking +AO. When it is disturbed or split (usually by strat warmings) that tight zonal flow is disturbed and 500mb amplifies, allowing strong ridges and deep troughs (pv anomaly) to form or slide further south.

[orangeblood]

12Z GFS coming in much colder for late next week's system, especially for those in West Texas..... Something some of the Euro Ensemble members have been hinting at!

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Sat the 20th on the Euro..... What do the stats say with that storm? Looks interesting.

[Portastorm]

Sat the 20th on the Euro..... What do the stats say with that storm? Looks interesting.

Of course this is 9/10 days out so take it with a grain of salt but the 0z Euro operational run doesn't look real cold with the system. In other words, I don't think based on what this particular model is showing that the low would yield much winter weather. The 850mb zero degree isotherm combs along the Red River at best at days 9-10. If it were to dig deeper into the state I would think there might be a better shot at winter weather. That's my two pesos.

[Ralph's Weather]

Sat the 20th on the Euro..... What do the stats say with that storm? Looks interesting.

I have been eying that storm for our first real chance at winter weather this season. If not that one, I expect another one right around Christmas will be another to watch if it has moisture to work with.

[Portastorm]

Sat the 20th on the Euro..... What do the stats say with that storm? Looks interesting.

I have been eying that storm for our first real chance at winter weather this season. If not that one, I expect another one right around Christmas will be another to watch if it has moisture to work with.

As srainhoutx, Ntxw, and orangeblood have pointed out ... this is going to a series or progression of lows and eventually the storm track will sink far enough south late this month that things will begin to get much more interesting.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z GEFS is keying in on the pattern changing around December 22nd +/- a couple of days and then staying cold/unsettled into the New Year.

[Tireman4]

Sat the 20th on the Euro..... What do the stats say with that storm? Looks interesting.

Of course this is 9/10 days out so take it with a grain of salt but the 0z Euro operational run doesn't look real cold with the system. In other words, I don't think based on what this particular model is showing that the low would yield much winter weather. The 850mb zero degree isotherm combs along the Red River at best at days 9-10. If it were to dig deeper into the state I would think there might be a better shot at winter weather. That's my two pesos.

Eh young fella. What are you saying? I cannot hear in my bad ear...

[orangeblood]

CFSv2 in on board the Texas Winter Weather Train for the holidays....take this with a grain of salt but fits the trend!

[gatorcane]

CFS shows BIG changes coming for North America in the long-range

[Portastorm]

CFSv2 in on board the Texas Winter Weather Train for the holidays....take this with a grain of salt but fits the trend!

Maybe it is my Firefox browser but your images are not coming through.

[ndale]

CFSv2 in on board the Texas Winter Weather Train for the holidays....take this with a grain of salt but fits the trend!

Maybe it is my Firefox browser but your images are not coming through.

No can't see them on Google Chrome either.

[Portastorm]

CFSv2 in on board the Texas Winter Weather Train for the holidays....take this with a grain of salt but fits the trend!

Maybe it is my Firefox browser but your images are not coming through.

orangeblood, I think you are linking to WeatherBell images which we cannot view as we are not paid subscribers.

[Tireman4]

I see it Porta.....I think I see it....

[TeamPlayersBlue]

The Euro is screaming a Nino pattern. Lots of lows tracking south. Need the EPO to go positive with one of these lows sneaking underneath but the Low in Alaska just wont go away

[aggiecutter]

The Euro is screaming a Nino pattern. Lots of lows tracking south. Need the EPO to go positive with one of these lows sneaking underneath but the Low in Alaska just wont go away

Bingo, you are the winner. This pattern looks to be locked in, at least through Christmas week.

[Ntxw]

Latest ENS (both GEFS and EURO) interpretation (add euro weeklies to the mix) storm, then Christmas +-2 days storm, then the arctic pipeline opens up with -EPO. That is some very good agreement for an ensembles suit. I am willing to bet the farm it comes crashing down by first week of January.

[Ralph's Weather]

Latest ENS (both GEFS and EURO) interpretation (add euro weeklies to the mix) storm, then Christmas +-2 days storm, then the arctic pipeline opens up with -EPO. That is some very good agreement for an ensembles suit. I am willing to bet the farm it comes crashing down by first week of January.

I like hearing that. This has definitely been the calm before the storm.

[gboudx]

From jeff:

Fairly mild and tranquil pattern since before Thanksgiving will begin to undergo changes over the next 5-10 days.

Zonal upper air pattern of late will begin to undergo amplification as current “intense” western US storm system begins to buckle the upper air pattern. This system will move across the SW US on Friday and eject into the central plains late this weekend sending a Pacific cold front across TX. Main energy and dynamics will pass well north of SE TX, but combination of increasing moisture and incoming cold front will likely result in a round of showers and thunderstorms from midday Sunday into midday Monday. Not looking at severe weather with best dynamics northward toward OK. Will have to watch for winds shifting to the SW in the mid levels which can dry slot this area and really cut back on rainfall potential. Given the best forcing will be well to the north, only expecting modest rainfall amounts of generally less than an inch. This is also a classic case of where the best rain chances tend to be across the northern portions of the region.

Of bigger interest is the apparent change in the storm track following this first “ lead” storm. Southern branch jet stream appears to become the increasingly dominant weather maker leading up toward Christmas and even into early 2015. A secondary storm system will follow the first “late weekend” storm by the mid to end of next week and likely progress much further southward yielding a more active weather event for TX. Additionally, long range model guidance with support from their ensemble means indicate cold air will make a return into the US near/just before Christmas with an active southern storm track continuing. Would like to see a little more support for this pattern change before jumping fully on board with a colder and wetter regime starting next week and lasting into early January 2015, but this would be supported by warm phase ENSO (El Nino) conditions in the Pacific. While current water temperatures in the Nino regions are near or above the required thresholds, other indicators are still not fully suggesting El Nino conditions. There remains a 65% chance of El Nino conditions early in 2015 and while “official” warm phase ENSO may not be in place, the atmospheric response appears to be favoring what one would likely see in such a warm phase.