Texas Winter 2014-2015

[orangeblood]

Hmm, gfs & pgfs both keep dfw above freezing for the duration of the event. Neither has any accumulations.

It's why we can't get caught up in the details attm. The cold will be there - just don't want a cut off low forming too far west. I don't see that system cutting off that far west with a trough northeast of Hawaii - should keep things kick out of the southwest much quicker.

On another note, if anyone wants to see the potential of this upcoming pattern if it were to lock in - check out the 00z GFS Control run...that's an onslaught rarely seen

[TheProfessor]

I think someone mentioned this earlier but we shouldn't worry about the precip totals right now, though sometimes they are fun to look at, We are still a week out or so and the models probably don't have a good handle on the amount if any precip, Kind of like last years ice storm where we didn't know how much precip were going to get until 3 days out, and really didn't have a good handle until 24 hours out, its what makes forecasting winter storms in Texas so hard.

[Rgv20]

Merry Christmas to all!! Just got back from family gathering and thought I would take a quick pick at the models...0zECMWF really backed off on the cold air which seems a bit odd as it has a 1055mb High entering Montana by Monday Evening. Looking at the 850mb Temperature Anomalies from the Euro it looks like the cold anomalies only make it to the Panhandle and West Texas which in my opinion looks improbable. Like we all know guidance historically struggle with Arctic fronts and this will likely be the case.


0zECMWF 500mb forecast valid for Monday Evening.

[SouthernMet]

Models have backed off on precip for New Years Eve/New Years.

00z CMC not as cold for Texas, shows an ice storm for north & central texas on the 2nd & 3rd...

6z GFS has no winter precip for Texas through January 5th.

6z PGFS has an ice storm on the 2nd & 3rd, but for south tx.

[TexasF6]

Models clearly not handling the heavy arctic air well at all. Its coming....

[Ralph's Weather]

Models clearly not handling the heavy arctic air well at all. Its coming....

Yep, just recently runs were showing single temps near 0 in North Texas. The pattern is still cold, the models just like to lose it at the medium range. The thing to watch will be if the cold can deepen while we still have moisture around.

[TexasF6]

MERRY CHRISTMAS & WARM WISHES FOR EVERYONE HERE AT STORM2K!!!! Now bring on the snow!!!

[weatherdude1108]

MERRY CHRISTMAS EVERYONE!! Have a great one, snow or no.snow.

[srainhoutx]

Merry Christmas Everyone! May this day bring you peace and tranquil weather from my home to yours.

[Ralph's Weather]

Merry Christmas and hope y'all have a wonderful day.

[wxman57]

Hmm, gfs & pgfs both keep dfw above freezing for the duration of the event. Neither has any accumulations.

Keep putting coal in my stocking and I'll keep stoking the furnace with it! In no time I'll have those temps up into the 80s on New Year's.

Meanwhile - there's a bunch of ice on our cars this morning. Very heavy frost in SW Houston. Too cold for me!

Merry Christmas, all.

[srainhoutx]

Hmm, gfs & pgfs both keep dfw above freezing for the duration of the event. Neither has any accumulations.

Keep putting coal in my stocking and I'll keep stoking the furnace with it! In no time I'll have those temps up into the 80s on New Year's.

Meanwhile - there's a bunch of ice on our cars this morning. Very heavy frost in SW Houston. Too cold for me!

Merry Christmas, all.

The frost is covering the roof tops and the ground up here in NW Harris County. Almost looks like a light snow fell overnight...almost...

[ronyan]

The mercury dipped to 37.9F this morning, got up to frost on the roof tops.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

34.5F here at 5 am then it cut out for some reason . I think the models are haywire right now till it starts seeing temp drops with the high. Also, as the big HP approaches the coast, this will help create a coastal low on the gulf coast. Goes hand in hand.

[perk]

Merry Christmas everyone.

[JDawg512]

Hope everyone has a very Merry Christmas! I'm looking forward to some interesting weather over the next 10 days!

[Ntxw]

Wishing everyone a Merry Christmas!

Models will lose temperature wise, there is cold now building in Canada it's not warm anymore. The EPO has gone negative, more cold will load from Siberia as cross polar flow is established so this map will only get colder. Plenty of it to use. Admittedly, the idea of an arctic attack is easier to say while precipitation/overrunning is much more difficult depending on how the shortwave behaves in the southwest.



No coincidence Canada starts to get cold as the Northeast Pacific ridge is starting to make it's way in NW NA

[Ntxwx]

Anyone else think the gfs is bringing the arctic front through a little late? Doesn't look right to me...

[SouthernMet]

PGFS back to showing 6-8" for north texas on the 2nd. CMC almost initialized..

[orangeblood]

Looking over this mornings 500 MB charts for next week, all I can say is this will be a LONG week next week for our fellow forecasters....the southwest upper level flow over the Arctic air will cause fits for these models for several days. The dominant flow is straight out of the Arctic circle(reinforcing arctic air already in place across the southern plains) so I wouldn't bet against the cold that's for sure