Texas Winter 2014-2015

[TheProfessor]

The 21z SREF is much wetter for Dallas on New Years, showing a mean of about .48 and some ensembles showing 1-1.5 inches of QPS,if that were to fall as Freezing rain we would have some serious issues.

[kingwood_tx1999]

Seems like everyone is thinking this will be a dallas/north tx *event* in regards to precipitation.is that the case? Cuz all im seeing is post from north tx ppl..not nearly enough from central or south and or southeast tx..plus I'm new so if I'm talking out of my rear please excuse me lol

[CentralTxAggie]

Hi, Long time lurker here!!! I really enjoy reading everyone's posts, keep up the good work.
Just wanted to say our weather station at our home in south Austin is already at 31, which is the predicted low for tonight...I'm just saying.

edit: after I hit submit on the above message, it dropped to 30.

[TheProfessor]

No, This is not an only North Texas event, in fact there is a possibility of it becoming to cold for precip here. With the models likely under doing the cold Central Texas could very well be under the threat of an ice event, it's just more likely for DFW to be below freezing. Part of it is also a lot of people are likely hesitant to post because of past Lucys, and there have been quite a few people from Central South Texas posting. Plus it looks like at least most of Texas will see rain, and even when you want snow, you have to be happy to see rain here, so really the only place it could be a non event is North Texas because of the threat of it becoming to dry for precipitation.

[SouthernMet]

latest sref alot warmer for dfw FWIW.

latest nam alot colder for new years day.

[Ralph's Weather]

It is already down to freezing here. To think that temps will struggle to get that low under a very strong Arctic air mass is laughable. I can understand questioning how much moisture there will be and when it arrives, but surface temps below freezing are about as likely as anything you will ever see at this range. Hopefully the models can figure this out soon because if things go as I am expecting Winter Storm Watches will need to be posted for a large portion of the state tomorrow night. We need as much lead time as possible to warn people if we are going to get a NYE ice storm.

[TheProfessor]

Welcome to the Thread Kingwood and CentralTxAggie

[srainhoutx]

The 00Z 32km NAM is suggesting colder temperatures dropping near or below freezing at 2 meters as precipitation breakdown out over the Midland/Odessa and Edwards Plateau. The precipitation I'd light and possibly light freezing drizzle/freezing rain just N of the San Antonio area. The cold upper trough does close off and appears to be some what more progressive as it begins to move E toward New Mexico. 2 meters temps are close to freezing near Austin and near 35-37 degrees near IAH.

[kingwood_tx1999]

Welcome to the Thread Kingwood and CentralTxAggie

Thanks! It only took me 3 weeks to get approved lol jk..more like a week..

[kingwood_tx1999]

The 00Z 32km NAM is suggesting colder temperatures dropping near or below freezing at 2 meters as precipitation breakdown out over the Midland/Odessa and Edwards Plateau. The precipitation I'd light and possibly light freezing drizzle/freezing rain just N of the San Antonio area. The cold upper trough does close off and appears to be some what more progressive as it begins to move E toward New Mexico. 2 meters temps are close to freezing near Austin and near 35-37 degrees near IAH.

So what does that mean for us in houston?

[ndale]

Welcome to our new posters, as a central Tx poster (Austin area) I have to believe we have a chance here of some winter weather. The San Antonio/Austin weather service mentions a possibility of freezing rain in parts of the hill country and although they keep our temp here just above freezing I think this upcoming air mass make take them lower and if there is precip then I would not be surprised by some winter weather event here.


The opinion stated is that of an amateur, please take with several grains of salt and for official forecast refer to the National Weather Service.

[TheProfessor]

btw Kingwood I suggest putting a disclaimer, everyone except pro mets need it.

[kingwood_tx1999]

btw Kingwood I suggest putting a disclaimer, everyone except pro mets need it.

How do I go about doing that?

[Snowman67]

With the arctic air just a few days away, it seems that the NWS is sticking to their guns regarding this event. Forecasted lows barely freezing in Dallas on Wed night. Interested if Wxman57, NTXW, Porta, Srain and others still feel that the models are greatly underestimating how cold it will get.

Here in Tomball we had a high of 41F today. If the forecast is anywhere close to accurate, that will be much colder than what is forecasted for Wed/Th (48F), and tonight's forecasted low of 34F will be colder than the forecasted lows for Wed/Th( 38/43).

I know the models have a tendency to underestimate these shallow cold air masses, but wondering if you all are as confident as you were a few days ago about how cold it will get.

Thanks.

[TheProfessor]

Go to control panel, then click on profile then click on edit signature and put a disclaimer.

[TheProfessor]

With the arctic air just a few days away, it seems that the NWS is sticking to their guns regarding this event. Forecasted lows barely freezing in Dallas on Wed night. Interested if Wxman57, NTXW, Porta, Srain and others still feel that the models are greatly underestimating how cold it will get.

Here in Tomball we had a high of 41F today. If the forecast is anywhere close to accurate, that will be much colder than what is forecasted for Wed/Th (48F), and tonight's forecasted low of 34F will be colder than the forecasted lows for Wed/Th( 38/43).

I know the models have a tendency to underestimate these shallow cold air masses, but wondering if you all are as confident as you were a few days ago about how cold it will get.

Thanks.

This was Said earlier but we are pretty confident on the cold as long as the models aren't overdoing the high pressure, But if we see 1050mb + High in Montana then it's going to get cold.

[dhweather]

Where are y'all looking at the SREF ? I'd like to use the same sources y'all are so we are comparing apples to apples.

[TheProfessor]

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplu ... YP=roadmap

^NCEP SREF Plumes

[SouthernMet]

Where are y'all looking at the SREF ? I'd like to use the same sources y'all are so we are comparing apples to apples.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/sref ... ditional__

sref plumes : http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplu ... YP=roadmap

[Snowman67]

Just looking at some upstream weather, I noticed that Valentine, NE is forecasted to drop to -15F on Monday night and -17F on Tuesday night. That's some mighty cold air in the central plains.

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... VKDPUcoALs